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Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.
For the first time, I am making our Fundamental Leaders Stock List available to the public. By screening the market with several high-end tools, multiple formulas, insights from various analysts and my 20 years of experience, we have been able to curate a universe of companies that lead their markets. If you like consistent investment returns with a little less risk, usually with dividends, then these companies are worth buying at the right prices.
There are two ways to get this list. First, become a subscriber to Fundamental Trends. The other is free and simple. Subscribe to our periodic updates via the "free research" tab on the right hand column of the site. I will be including our "Leaders" lists to "free research" subscribers. Subscribing to "free research" is a great way to try us on for size.
Each month I update the limit order price ranges on our "Very Short List." This list is made up of about 50 companies that we would love to own shares in (usually 20-30 at any one time) if there were some event that suddenly pushed prices down by 5% to 20% - like August 24th, 2015 when the market opened sharply lower and then quickly rebounded. Since we don't know which day the market will wake us up with a negative surprise, we set limit orders for our initial positions. If markets continue downward, then we will add more stock positions as the markets settle. Below is our "Very Short List" and the prices we are buyers at:
I have been scanning the markets for values. As we know, almost nothing on our "Very Short List" are in the buy zone right now. Even by widening the net, there is very little out there with a favorable risk to reward ratio. Sure, we can trade if we want, but we're up against high frequency trading machines, hedge funds, proprietary traders and the networked day traders (many ex-industry). On top of that, there is no certainty in the world right now other than "slow growth forever."
With the S&P 500 finally setting new record highs after over a year of trying I wonder if people who are light on stocks are feeling like they're "missing it?" Are those folks more likely to buy into the stock market now that it's at new highs? Or do they have the discipline to wait for better opportunities?
I have one Millennial friend with a $17k rollover sitting in cash burning a hole in his IRA. He's anxious to invest. I told him this spring the S&P 500 would likely get a correction and that he should pick his spots. He's already saying things like "it never came" with regards to a correction.
Despite 4 consecutive quarters of falling corporate earnings, U.S. stock markets finally set new highs after 15 months of trading in a narrow range. What will it take to keep the rally going? Most believe that earnings will need to at least level off and show signs of improving in the not too distant future to support continued stock market strength.
For the past two years now that stock market has traded up and down within a range. Bulls keep talking about an impending breakout and bears keep talking about an impending breakdown. So far, we've gotten neither. What's next is anybody's guess.
What we do know is that economic fundamentals are not meaningfully improving and that asset prices are relatively high when put aside growth rates. Eventually, something has to give. Either the world economy gets meaningfully better or many asset prices fall.
For the past 70 years, America's fortunes and freedom have coincided with the wave of Baby Boomers who have dominated the global economic and political landscape. That era is coming to an end. It will be a slow, and hopefully happy ending, but regardless of happy or not, the Baby Boomer era is in its final innings.
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