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Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
When things seem terrible and people are scared, it's time to be greedy.
What is going on is essentially what we expected, though a bit more dragged out.
Traders are bouncing the market around, but it makes me wonder how strong they are if this is the worst they can do.
I'm a net buyer and repositioning into higher and higher quality.
“And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful” – 2004 Annual Shareholder Letter Berkshire Hathaway by Warren Buffett.
Take a look back at our 4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook and Q4 Playbook Review. And now think about it a little.
Traders trade, that's what they do, don't listen to their stories though.
Oil is at the bottom of it's new range, it's an easy buy once again.
The intermediate bias in oil is bullish and so is the short-term.
Buy oil ETFs as futures swing back to backwardation from contango.
Traders, from time to time, give us slow handed folks a wonderful opportunity. The traders will beat down or drive up an asset to silly price levels, unsupported by fundamentals, setting up high probability reversal trades. That's the land I trade a bit.
If you watched my last several webinars, then you saw how my group of slow handed position traders, who occasionally swing trade, were able to sidestep the October correction and get into the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Googlebet (GOOG) and First Solar (FSLR) very close to recent bottoms.
How did we do it? Well first, we understood what was really driving the stock market, which was the stock buybacks. So as not to rehash, you can read all about it here in my Editor's Pick 4th Quarter Macro and Market Outlook, and a follow on piece - Q4 Portfolio Playbook Review.
Right now, the traders are giving us another wonderful set-up to jump into. This time, the trade is in oil, something we have fairly successfully traded the past few years.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Traders Offer Easy "Go Long" Oil Opportunity
To protect the integrity of our picks, the focus ETFs will be found in an article within the website each month.
These are the highest conviction ETFs to add to asset allocations in November 2018.
Look to buy around the 200-day moving averages and when RSI falls below 30.
Use the "bottom fishing" prices for second entries on any ETF that violates the 200-day moving average.
Scale in using GTC limit orders and do not overextend on your asset allocation.
The Global Trends ETF approach is to use a tactical asset allocation strategy to improve the risk-adjusted returns of passive management investing.
Tactical asset allocation using ETFs is a a fairly straightforward 2-step process.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe ETF Focus List (Nov 2018)
To protect the integrity of our picks, the focus stocks will be found in an article within the website each month.
These are the highest conviction growth stocks to add to asset allocations in November 2018.
Look to buy around the 200-day moving averages and when RSI falls below 30.
Use the "bottom fishing" prices for second entries on any stock that has violated the 200-day moving average.
Scale in using GTC limit orders and do not overextend on your asset allocation.
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” - Warren Buffett
Below are 12-20 growth stocks to focus on for long-term capital appreciation. Each offers a combination of value pricing and a growth profile that is expected to do better than the markets, as well as, analysts expectations.
I have included the stocks that I believe have the best combination of value and fundamentals coming into the month.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Focus Growth Stocks (Nov 2018)
To protect the integrity of our picks, the focus stocks will be found in an article within the website each month.
These are the highest conviction dividend stocks to add to asset allocations in November 2018.
Look to buy around the 200-day moving averages and when RSI falls below 30.
Use the "bottom fishing" prices for second entries on any stock that has violated the 200-day moving average.
Scale in using GTC limit orders and do not overextend on your asset allocation.
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” - Warren Buffett
Below are 12-20 dividend stocks to focus on for growth and income. Each offers a combination of dividend income and a growth profile to support that dividend.
I have included the stocks that I believe have the best combination of value and fundamentals coming into the month.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Focus Dividend Stocks (Nov 2018)
We planned for an October buyback blackout induced correction beginning in August.
We came into this correction with high cash holdings.
It is time to be a buyer of stocks with solid fundamentals, good intermediate-term upward price momentum and a buyback plan.
Selling puts against cash holdings is also a very viable strategy in order to "recycle" your money again in a couple months.
While I am not a fan of having to trade more frequently, I have to listen to the markets. Right now, and likely through the next real stock market crash (#crash2020 anybody?), we will likely need to tweak our asset allocation several times per year. Now is one of those times.
Our asset allocation strategy is in line with what we discussed in our 4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook. Let's do a quick review of the last few years though, before we reiterate our strategy for the 4th Quarter.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Q4 Playbook Review
Hedges are small positions with potential for large offsets in a falling market.
We place hedges when markets are overvalued and there is a discernible catalyst to drive prices down - we try to avoid outright speculation.
Our current hedging thesis is almost played out and we need to look for exits.
In August we started talking about hedging our portfolios. The first batch of hedges expire in December and January. We are about to start running into very serious time value deterioration, so we we want to find exits on these positions. We are likely to win 3 of 4 trades and might win all four, possibly a couple of them with significant gains.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Managing Your Hedges
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