Earlier this week I asked Will President Trump Trade America Into Recession? We will not know the answer for a day or two more.
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Kirk Spano's Fundamental Trends
"The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change." Manage Risk and Seize Opportunity in an Era of Change.
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A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
"The volatility we saw in 2007 is not likely to subside in the short run... I believe that the problems at Bear Stearns are the tip of the iceberg regarding problems that are likely to emerge in the financial sector."
"2012 marks the year that the United States accelerates its transformation from a military super power... to a natural resources super power which is able to support peace without as much use of its armed forces."
"I believe there is a high probability that we do move to the low end of the oil-price range later this year...That's not to say there can't be out of the ordinary price plunges..."
"Oil just entered a new bull market phase by rising 20% in price since I started imploring people to buy oil stocks a few months ago... make no mistake about it, oil is going to rise dramatically in the next few years... until electric vehicles take hold."
"...investors have two opportunities for asymmetric gains emerging. The first is to position trade... oil investments made now. The second opportunity is to find companies that will thrive in an EV, solar and smart grid future..."
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Stocks
Stock research from multiple sources and Kirk Spano's investment approach.
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Global ETF research and tactical asset allocation strategies.
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Options
Conservative option selling strategies for income & stock accumulation, as well as, select asymmetric growth opportunities.
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Model portfolios designed to offer asset allocation & risk management guidance .
Models From My View...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
Don't You Dare Trade Options Until You Read This!!!
- Details
- Category: View
Summary
Options are derivatives and can cause your account destruction.
Options are the best tool for managing risk, generating income and occasionally generating asymmetric gains.
You are your own worst enemy on options by being greedy, unknowledgeable and inexperienced.
Control your emotions, learn how options work, what options are for and practice trade in a paper (no money) account at your brokerage before ever using your hard earned money.
"You never have played poker before, you say," says the gambler.
"Well, the best way to learn is to jump right in and give it a try," he encourages. "Sit right down here at the table, you're smart, you'll figure it out."
Person who never played poker before, sits down at the table and takes out his wallet...
If you haven't done significant studying about options before using these investment contracts, then you are the sucker at the table!
Read more: Don't You Dare Trade Options Until You Read This!!!
Hedging Trump Trade And Cleaning Up An Oil Spill
- Details
- Category: Options
Summary
Today's webinar will discuss hedging an escalating trade war and cleaning up the USOU mess.
The odds of a full trade agreement with China are almost zero, but a coin flip between escalation and "delay more tariffs to work on a deal."
You don't have to make money back the same way you lost it.
Leverage For When The Market Turns Up
- Details
- Category: Options
Summary
Leverage is a double edged sword that must be wielded carefully.
Overextending on leveraged positions can lead to massive portfolio destruction.
Wait for likely turning points and scale in slowly.
Waiting for an uptrend is the easiest and safest way to use leverage, though has less profit potential, which might be just fine.
Consider risk first, then potential profits when investing.
I will start with the last point first today. I take for granted that people measure their own risk tolerance. As I am reminded over and over the past 25 years, that is not always true.
FOMO - fear of missing out - is very strong in at least half of investors. Remember what I talked about a few months ago with a new acronym, you should have FOGYAK instead - fear of getting your ass kicked.
Now that we are in a significant stock market correction, and possibly headed into a bear market, we need a strategy for when things turn positive again -as they always do. Here are a few thoughts.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Leverage For When The Market Turns Up
Are You Scared Yet?
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- Category: View
Summary
When things seem terrible and people are scared, it's time to be greedy.
What is going on is essentially what we expected, though a bit more dragged out.
Traders are bouncing the market around, but it makes me wonder how strong they are if this is the worst they can do.
I'm a net buyer and repositioning into higher and higher quality.
“And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful” – 2004 Annual Shareholder Letter Berkshire Hathaway by Warren Buffett.
Take a look back at our 4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook and Q4 Playbook Review. And now think about it a little.
Traders Offer Easy "Go Long" Oil Opportunity
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- Category: Exchange Traded Funds
Summary
Traders trade, that's what they do, don't listen to their stories though.
Oil is at the bottom of it's new range, it's an easy buy once again.
The intermediate bias in oil is bullish and so is the short-term.
Buy oil ETFs as futures swing back to backwardation from contango.
Traders, from time to time, give us slow handed folks a wonderful opportunity. The traders will beat down or drive up an asset to silly price levels, unsupported by fundamentals, setting up high probability reversal trades. That's the land I trade a bit.
If you watched my last several webinars, then you saw how my group of slow handed position traders, who occasionally swing trade, were able to sidestep the October correction and get into the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Googlebet (GOOG) and First Solar (FSLR) very close to recent bottoms.
How did we do it? Well first, we understood what was really driving the stock market, which was the stock buybacks. So as not to rehash, you can read all about it here in my Editor's Pick 4th Quarter Macro and Market Outlook, and a follow on piece - Q4 Portfolio Playbook Review.
Right now, the traders are giving us another wonderful set-up to jump into. This time, the trade is in oil, something we have fairly successfully traded the past few years.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Traders Offer Easy "Go Long" Oil Opportunity
ETF Focus List (Nov 2018)
- Details
- Category: Exchange Traded Funds
Summary
To protect the integrity of our picks, the focus ETFs will be found in an article within the website each month.
These are the highest conviction ETFs to add to asset allocations in November 2018.
Look to buy around the 200-day moving averages and when RSI falls below 30.
Use the "bottom fishing" prices for second entries on any ETF that violates the 200-day moving average.
Scale in using GTC limit orders and do not overextend on your asset allocation.
The Global Trends ETF approach is to use a tactical asset allocation strategy to improve the risk-adjusted returns of passive management investing.
Tactical asset allocation using ETFs is a a fairly straightforward 2-step process.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe ETF Focus List (Nov 2018)
Focus Growth Stocks (Nov 2018)
- Details
- Category: Stocks
Summary
To protect the integrity of our picks, the focus stocks will be found in an article within the website each month.
These are the highest conviction growth stocks to add to asset allocations in November 2018.
Look to buy around the 200-day moving averages and when RSI falls below 30.
Use the "bottom fishing" prices for second entries on any stock that has violated the 200-day moving average.
Scale in using GTC limit orders and do not overextend on your asset allocation.
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” - Warren Buffett
Below are 12-20 growth stocks to focus on for long-term capital appreciation. Each offers a combination of value pricing and a growth profile that is expected to do better than the markets, as well as, analysts expectations.
I have included the stocks that I believe have the best combination of value and fundamentals coming into the month.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Focus Growth Stocks (Nov 2018)
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