;)
I track technical analysts, including Avi Gilburt over at FATrader, Marc Chaikin, a point-and-figure guy here in Milwaukee, several candlestick makers and a few others. When their macro analysis lines up, it gives me pause. Right now, they are all telling a similar story:
The stock market is very likely to go lower from here.
I want to be able to interact with you, answer questions and help out with managing investment positions. So, to help us connect, I am setting up a regular chat schedule that I should be able to keep most of the time (my guess is I’m on 80% of the time I say I will be).
With another pause in the ramping up of the trade war, markets were feeling bullish Monday morning. However, that bullishness has been fading as the day went on. Maybe markets realize there was no real trade progress made. Maybe the markets are focused on other things.
Oil and gas stocks are under pressure from different directions. However, ultimately, prices will support profits. If you are afraid of oil and gas stocks now, maybe it’s time to buy.
Amidst all the unappointed trade worry warriors, de facto Lords of debt bombs and bongo bubble blowers preaching narratives to us about why, how and when the world is going to end again, I have but one Presidential thing to say to them…..Bull$µ!#.
We have an opportunity to buy a solid financial stock – NOT in the dangerous banking industry – that pays over a 7% dividend. It is in a growing business and will be entering Europe soon. This is a chance to have a double to triple in total return the next 5 years or so with low risk.
The correction we are seeing is a prelude to what I expect in 2020 as the economy softens and buybacks slowdown. Between now and then, we should see choppiness as smart money fades rallies and the oblivious permabulls buy the dips (perma anything are oblivious). I expect a bit of an “end of QT” rally after Labor Day possibly through January, albeit with more volatility than normal. VXX We nearly […]
Stock market corrections are about the only time to buy high quality companies at a discount. Corrections are also the best time to buy potential ten-baggers on a pullback. We were smart to allocate huge percentages to cash recently, now we need to be smart picking great companies for our portfolios. Below are two lists. The first are very high quality companies with stocks that are approaching rare bargain territory. The second list are companies that have big growth and are potential ten-baggers over the next decade on this pullback.
For those of you active in the chat, you saw that we discussed buying some SPY puts a couple weeks ago and VXX calls on Monday. The SPY puts are up about 50% and the VXX calls have roughly doubled in 4 days. How you manage these depends on how greedy you are.
With the VIX extremely low, that virtually always signals at least a couple weeks of volatility coming. Most investors can use this opportunity to raise cash. Traders have another opportunity.
Fundamental Trends is the synthesis of deep fundamental research with strong technical and quantitative trend analysis. The ideas behind Fundamental Trends originate from Kirk Spano, who was named “The Next Great Investing Columnist” by MarketWatch.com of the Wall Street Journal Network and is also the owner of Bluemound Asset Management, LLC.
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