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A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
The improving efficiency of solar is nothing short of dramatic the past decade. Here we see recent records, most of which have been broken in the past year, though the government is no longer making much effort to keep track under President Trump's administration.
The breakthrough that solar has been waiting for though for several years now is in batteries. That day has now come as well and we are simply waiting for production.
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Usually, the hardest trades are the best trades.
The market is getting slammed again.
In coming days, I'd look to start adding back QQQ and/or QQQ stocks.
The stock market is one angry beast right now. With the Fed being jerks and the President being a jerk and global growth slowing a bit and bond curves inverting and companies making gobs of money...
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The API reported an inventory build this week, however, last week they had a huge draw.
The EIA last week had a small draw and reports at 10:30AM Wednesday.
It is very possible that the API numbers are fudged week to week due to when they account, so, we could see EIA with a draw.
The Fed will likely be dovish tomorrow and might even surprise with no rate hike.
If EIA shows a draw tomorrow, especially of about 8m barrels representing 2-week differences with APi and new Saudi cuts, that could mark the bottom in oil prices.
We have taken it on the chin with oil even though America is unique in having built oil inventories the past several months. The rest of the world did not. Our inventories are a direct result of Saudi Arabia increasing exports to the U.S. in response to the Iran sanctions and at President Trump's request.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe We Might Have The Low In Oil Tomorrow At The Open
Options are derivatives and can cause your account destruction.
Options are the best tool for managing risk, generating income and occasionally generating asymmetric gains.
You are your own worst enemy on options by being greedy, unknowledgeable and inexperienced.
Control your emotions, learn how options work, what options are for and practice trade in a paper (no money) account at your brokerage before ever using your hard earned money.
"You never have played poker before, you say," says the gambler.
"Well, the best way to learn is to jump right in and give it a try," he encourages. "Sit right down here at the table, you're smart, you'll figure it out."
Person who never played poker before, sits down at the table and takes out his wallet...
If you haven't done significant studying about options before using these investment contracts, then you are the sucker at the table!
Read more: Don't You Dare Trade Options Until You Read This!!!
Today's webinar will discuss hedging an escalating trade war and cleaning up the USOU mess.
The odds of a full trade agreement with China are almost zero, but a coin flip between escalation and "delay more tariffs to work on a deal."
You don't have to make money back the same way you lost it.
Earlier this week I asked Will President Trump Trade America Into Recession? We will not know the answer for a day or two more.
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Leverage is a double edged sword that must be wielded carefully.
Overextending on leveraged positions can lead to massive portfolio destruction.
Wait for likely turning points and scale in slowly.
Waiting for an uptrend is the easiest and safest way to use leverage, though has less profit potential, which might be just fine.
Consider risk first, then potential profits when investing.
I will start with the last point first today. I take for granted that people measure their own risk tolerance. As I am reminded over and over the past 25 years, that is not always true.
FOMO - fear of missing out - is very strong in at least half of investors. Remember what I talked about a few months ago with a new acronym, you should have FOGYAK instead - fear of getting your ass kicked.
Now that we are in a significant stock market correction, and possibly headed into a bear market, we need a strategy for when things turn positive again -as they always do. Here are a few thoughts.
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When things seem terrible and people are scared, it's time to be greedy.
What is going on is essentially what we expected, though a bit more dragged out.
Traders are bouncing the market around, but it makes me wonder how strong they are if this is the worst they can do.
I'm a net buyer and repositioning into higher and higher quality.
“And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful” – 2004 Annual Shareholder Letter Berkshire Hathaway by Warren Buffett.
Take a look back at our 4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook and Q4 Playbook Review. And now think about it a little.
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