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A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
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noun
noun: oligopoly; plural noun: oligopolies
a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers.
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The next several weeks into earnings season could be rough.
Duration is running out on a few calls.
A big rally is likely in store for year-end.
I am making some subtle moves within portfolios to accumulate a bit more cash, with the intention of reinvesting in the next several weeks.
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EXAS is on a huge rally due to Pfizer deal.
The deal is a result of weakness though, not strength.
I still believe EXAS makes it to $100/share in the next few years, but the easy money has been made.
EXAS is at the top of trading range and should not represent more than about 2% of your overall holdings now (and zero is fine).
Exact Sciences (EXAS) recently cut a marketing deal with Pfizer (PFE) for Cologuard. That will greatly improve the market penetration of Exact's highly effective and noninvasive colon cancer test. As a result, short sellers have been covering their positions, driving the stock nearly straight up the past few days.
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One of the best ways to get an understanding of a company is by learning its industry.
In this example, we see how companies in the Permian are gearing up for higher production by summer 2019 as more pipelines come online.
Some journals are cheap, some are expensive, take the free trials, but be diligent about canceling to conserve expenses.
Diamondback Energy is covered in this natural gas journal. I apply the information to one of our holdings, Occidental Petroleum.
Jim Rogers: Read everything
Age: 66 - Investor and commodities guru: The best advice I ever got was on an airplane. It was in my early days on Wall Street. I was flying to Chicago, and I sat next to an older guy. Anyway, I remember him as being an old guy, which means he may have been 40. He told me to read everything. If you get interested in a company and you read the annual report, he said, you will have done more than 98% of the people on Wall Street. And if you read the footnotes in the annual report you will have done more than 100% of the people on Wall Street. I realized right away that if I just literally read a company's annual report and the notes -- or better yet, two or three years of reports -- that I would know much more than others. Professional investors used to sort of be dazzled. Everyone seemed to think I was smart. I later realized that I had to do more than just that. I learned that I had to read the annual reports of those I am investing in and their competitors' annual reports, the trade journals, and everything that I could get my hands on. But I realized that most people don't bother even doing the basic homework. And if I did even more, I'd be so far ahead that I'd probably be able to find successful investments.--Interview by Brian O'Keefe
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Antero ahead of winter natural gas demand.
SPWR and FSLR on general solar weakness.
Couer Mining on gold weakness but new mine upside.
AT&T on merger depression but 5G upside.
Below find some revisions to the August Cash-secured puts list that are timely. I noted by bold a few that are close to executing now. Others, I've pushed out >>> to a new month expiration.
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Options are derivatives and can cause your account destruction.
Options are the best tool for managing risk, generating income and occasionally generating asymmetric gains.
You are your own worst enemy on options by being greedy, unknowledgeable and inexperienced.
Control your emotions, learn how options work, what options are for and practice trade in a paper (no money) account at your brokerage before ever using your hard earned money.
"You never have played poker before, you say," says the gambler.
"Well, the best way to learn is to jump right in and give it a try," he encourages. "Sit right down here at the table, you're smart, you'll figure it out."
Person who never played poker before, sits down at the table and takes out his wallet...
If you haven't done significant studying about options before using these investment contracts, then you are the sucker at the table!
Read more: Don't You Dare Trade Options Until You Read This!!!
Use options to build and trim positions for your ebb and flow trading style.
I am erring on the side of caution until this market gives back a little.
Still very bullish on oil stocks given manipulated supply, rising demand, lack of long-cycle investment and Iran sanctions.
You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing. --- Warren Buffett
Each month, I will post a new set of option trades that you can look to make over the next month. I will focus on:
Always use limit orders and set your GTC for a week or two. Review a few times per week. It doesn't hurt to check early each morning after looking at the stock market futures.
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