I get a l common question from new members to my investment letters: what should I do right now to get started? So, here's some answers:
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Kirk Spano's Fundamental Trends
"The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change." Manage Risk and Seize Opportunity in an Era of Change.
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A sampling of some of the analysis I've made that has come to pass is or happening now...
"The volatility we saw in 2007 is not likely to subside in the short run... I believe that the problems at Bear Stearns are the tip of the iceberg regarding problems that are likely to emerge in the financial sector."
"2012 marks the year that the United States accelerates its transformation from a military super power... to a natural resources super power which is able to support peace without as much use of its armed forces."
"I believe there is a high probability that we do move to the low end of the oil-price range later this year...That's not to say there can't be out of the ordinary price plunges..."
"Oil just entered a new bull market phase by rising 20% in price since I started imploring people to buy oil stocks a few months ago... make no mistake about it, oil is going to rise dramatically in the next few years... until electric vehicles take hold."
"...investors have two opportunities for asymmetric gains emerging. The first is to position trade... oil investments made now. The second opportunity is to find companies that will thrive in an EV, solar and smart grid future..."
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Stocks
Stock research from multiple sources and Kirk Spano's investment approach.
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Global ETF research and tactical asset allocation strategies.
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Options
Conservative option selling strategies for income & stock accumulation, as well as, select asymmetric growth opportunities.
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Models From My View...
Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
Getting Started & What I'd Be Doing Now
- Details
- Category: Stocks
Summary
Look at the big secular trends and embrace them - the future is coming fast.
Old economy, high capital, no moat is a catastrophe waiting to happen - sell your grandpa's stocks.
Find high ceiling stocks within strong secular sectors, build a position, be patient.
Taking Profits On T2 Biosystems Calls
- Details
- Category: Options
Summary
Call options are up over 60%.
Duration is short - only to November.
Time to take call profits and look for opportunities to sell puts.
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June Options
- Details
- Category: Options
Summary
After a mini-correction, the market is warming up again. Maybe it lasts, maybe it doesn't.
Sometimes doing little to nothing, while waiting for existing positions to move or expire (options) is the right thing to do.
There are a few new ideas, but not many. That is par for the course.
You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing. --- Warren Buffett
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June Focus Stocks
- Details
- Category: Stocks
Summary
These are stocks I own or am looking to own soon.
Price matters, quality matters more.
Sometimes I speculate, but not often, there has to be a massive upside to do that.
Many of these companies can be used in conjunction with an option strategy, so see the monthly options page in the Tools tab.
All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out. --- Peter Lynch
In real estate it is "location, location, location." In stocks it's quality, quality, quality. The problem is that in the stock market, basically everybody knows who the quality stocks are. There are certain companies that only go on sale once or twice a decade, usually during correlated market corrections when "everything" falls in price.
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Why $80 Is The Peak Oil Plateau
- Details
- Category: Options
Oil prices are taking a hit right now as the media and markets are fooled by a narrative that new oil supply is coming onto the market from Saudi Arabia and Russia. That is not the real story. In fact, it's #fakenews.
Good traders took some profits on oil positions in the middle of last week. Smart investors will be expanding their asset allocation to oil investments in the next few weeks.
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May Focus Stocks
- Details
- Category: Stocks
In real estate it is "location, location, location." In stocks it's quality, quality, quality. The problem is that in the stock market, basically everybody knows who the quality stocks are. There are certain companies that only go on sale once or twice a decade, usually during correlated market corrections when "everything" falls in price.
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Reviewing T2 Biosystems
- Details
- Category: Stocks
T2 is seeking to fill an unmet need for Sepsis testing. Sepsis has been dramatically on the rise the past two decades killing many.
The company has a date with the FDA closing in for its T2 Bacteria panel. If approved, the company would take a lead in the testing for Sepsis.
I have not had the time to do a deep dive recently, but the story remains the same. If the T2 Bacteria panel gets FDA approval, it's already in use in Europe, it will be a sizable improvement over existing blood based tests for Sepsis which can take 2-3 days to render a diagnosis vs the 6-8 hours for T2.
Why is that time delay so significant? Because by the 3rd day Sepsis often kills you.
I have a very small position in the stock. With the drop today, I am considering taking a call position on speculation they get FDA approval.
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