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Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
Over the past two weeks, I have become a net seller into this weak stock market rally. I talked extensively about it in our last webinar: https://youtu.be/_11AvJl3m_M
While I do not believe what is coming is "the big one" as far as market corrections is concerned, I do think it can mimic significantly what happened in February, but for different reasons.
For those who would actively try to navigate an uncertain stock market, raising cash levels by trimming winners and outright selling losers is a move to make now. Investors who would rather stay a bit more fully invested, and control risk with fewer moving parts, can rely on a smart asset allocation to offset a potential correction.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Here's Why To Be A Stock Seller
You must differentiate oil from oil stocks.
Oil is extremely volatile in the short-term and even more difficult to trade.
Many oil stocks are seeing increasing cash flow, leading to higher shareholder yield, as they realize higher oil sale prices.
Oil stocks are a still a screaming buy in my opinion and I think one easy play ETF will double in share price within 2 to 3 years.
There is a huge difference between oil and oil stocks. The price of oil moves on changing narratives in the short-term. The United States Oil ETF (USO) and 3x United States Oil ETF (USOU) are going to move a lot. You can try to swing trade those ETFs and affiliated options, and probably fail, or, you can scale in and out over longer time periods - that's what I do.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe Oil Is Always Volatile Short-Term, But Is Going Up Medium Term
Risk assets have very little support - stocks are risk assets.
President Trump's trade policy is high risk and has an unknown ending.
While valuations have come in, earnings are clearly peaking, making the CAPE ratio relevant.
Indexers and closet indexers will get hit badly in a correction or outright bear market.
Use market strength to lighten up allocations to stocks and raise cash levels.
The time has finally come to be a net seller of stocks. This does not mean that stocks cannot continue to go up a while. As I said nearly a year ago in a conversation with Mark Yusko, there is a lot of reason to believe we see 3000 on the S&P 500.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe It's Time To Be A Net Stock Seller
Look at the big secular trends and embrace them - the future is coming fast.
Old economy, high capital, no moat is a catastrophe waiting to happen - sell your grandpa's stocks.
Find high ceiling stocks within strong secular sectors, build a position, be patient.
I get a l common question from new members to my investment letters: what should I do right now to get started? So, here's some answers:
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Call options are up over 60%.
Duration is short - only to November.
Time to take call profits and look for opportunities to sell puts.
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After a mini-correction, the market is warming up again. Maybe it lasts, maybe it doesn't.
Sometimes doing little to nothing, while waiting for existing positions to move or expire (options) is the right thing to do.
There are a few new ideas, but not many. That is par for the course.
You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing. --- Warren Buffett
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These are stocks I own or am looking to own soon.
Price matters, quality matters more.
Sometimes I speculate, but not often, there has to be a massive upside to do that.
Many of these companies can be used in conjunction with an option strategy, so see the monthly options page in the Tools tab.
All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out. --- Peter Lynch
In real estate it is "location, location, location." In stocks it's quality, quality, quality. The problem is that in the stock market, basically everybody knows who the quality stocks are. There are certain companies that only go on sale once or twice a decade, usually during correlated market corrections when "everything" falls in price.
To read more, a subscription is needed: Click here to subscribe June Focus Stocks
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