Shooter’s Major Markets ETF Risk On / Risk Off Report

Scott “Shooter” Henderson’s Elliot Wave and proprietary technical analysis of Major Markets. Includes equity ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM, plus treasuries through TLT. Use this analysis as a general market guide and for trading the major market ETFs.

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Risk On / Risk Off Index Notes

Continue to scale in!

“Next Entry Window Long label”.

A view of the big indexes that give us a clue as to whether the stock market is more risk on or risk off.


SPY Risk On! Lets see what the commercials want to open the year. I think they run it up here. Yet, its still all about the Dollar. P.S. We have a new higher count on the scan at $494. We could develop into a flat here stay range bound for a bit. Lets see what future bring and what Asia thinks.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Monthly Chart
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Weekly Chart
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Daily Chart

QQQ Risk Off! That $401 is still viable. The count suggests $387.83 is next. Then, Risk On!

Invesco QQQ Trust Monthly Chart
Invesco QQQ Trust Weekly Chart
Invesco QQQ Trust Daily Chart

IWM Risk On! Primary Wave 4 Set-up with a new daily trigger. That means you can add to your position. Targets $273 2nd or 3rd quarter 2022. Mind the Next Entry Long label for entry. Mind the Negated count label as well for a stop. If it happens to morph lower it will just extend the rise on the count. AKA, my thesis for scaling in.

iShs Russell 2000 ETF Monthly Chart
iShs Russell 2000 ETF Weekly Chart
iShs Russell 2000 ETF Daily Chart

DIA Mixed! Could run. Man did that scan screw up my plan. Killed it! Experience tells me to avoid it unless it breaks out then wait for a back-test then enter. If you sold $375 the count returns a $382 so keep that in mind if your in Jan. Will probably stay pretty flat. But, could turn against quick on Jan.

Dow Jones Ind. Avg. ETF Monthly Chart
Dow Jones Ind. Avg. ETF Weekly Chart
Dow Jones Ind. Avg. ETF Daily Chart

TLT Risk Off! Count is clear now $145 area next.

iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF Monthly Chart
iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF Weekly Chart
iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF Daily Chart

USD At present I’m viewing this as a overshoot of trend resistance because the Fed never allows this to get outside its range. However, in this inflationary environment I’m not exactly sure how supply side inflation manifests. So, technically I agree with the count even though I plan to open GDX long at a USD 98, except I’m getting $97.48 for a (1). I thinking we could push to 110 with any higher than expected CPI. If that 128 manifest it will annihilate any commodity inflation over night. Maybe that’s the Feds plan. Let it run for a minute. My2Cents.

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