A weekly piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering a few Conviction Trades, Primary Wave Set-ups, Next Entry Longs, and any Continuation Plays. Shooter’s work is founded in Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators.
We focus on Plug & Play stocks & ETFs, but will swing trade various other stocks, ETFs and crypto assets. Short trades are generally used to hedge the long portion of our portfolios, rarely for outright speculation. We do not short anything on our VSL as those are long-only assets.
Adhere to a rules-based, risk-managed approach to trading using technical indicators. We highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.
Follow along in chat if you are going to swing trade a portion of your account. We recommend starting with trading 5% or less of your total portfolio and no more than 20% even as you gain experience. Take the time to read Using Shooter’s Swing Trading Notes. After all, you are your own Captain!
Ok, we got some follow through, does it hold? I added VXX Friday because of the US change on first strike capabilities. Realize, technical does not matter if we get a nuke! We’re down by at least 10% or more. Very hard environment to get long. If you put a gun to my head, I’d say my three top plays this week are DIA as a flight to safety. TLT to that $125 on at least two 0.50 basis point hikes and EWZ on a huge shift to South America mining.
Continue to scale in on all entries!
“Next Entry Window Long label” or “Set-up Long”.
Shooter’s Trade Ideas:
Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, cryptos and short ideas (which are never from the VSL which is a long-only list).
DIA Breakout Continuation Play. Manifesting! Measure to $357.45. Role up late April May $350-52 calls. Stop is close below $343.35 now. Were still seeing a flight to safety.
TLT Breakdown Candidate. Measure to $125.98. Stop is close above the 8 day. We are pricing in repetitive 0.50 rate hikes now. Next Entry Short is that $130.39.
T Looks like a good spot to trim!
LSXMK Another good spot to trim!
KMI Maybe a double top?
Primary Wave Set-ups
MU Primary Wave Set-up with a 90 Minute Trigger. Next Entry Long comes in around $73.18. Measures to the top of the range around $96.
SONO Primary Wave Set-up with a 90 Minute Trigger. Measures to the top of the range around $36.58.
U Primary Wave Set-up with as 90 Min. trigger. Measure to $97.86 1st then our Next Entry long comes in at $94.07. Gave the stop some more room down to $87.27 after I looked at it again…
SQ Primary Wave Set-up with a Daily Trigger now! It broke out so a full position size. Measures to $172.37 now. Changed the Stop is close below $109.62. gave it a bit more room…
SPWR Primary Wave Set-up…Daily Trigger Now! Next Entry Long is now $17.06. Measures to $34.96. Stop is close below $14.69…
EWZ Primary Wave Set-up. Weekly Trigger! Next target is $39.96. The back-test is a little clouding today so will update midweek. It sure like like Brazil becomes secular trend based on the Monthly.
BHP Next stop $79.90…
Next Entry Window Long / Continuation Plays
MP Were out! Next stop $60.31.
NTR Target raised again, next stop $113.14.
BRK.B Target raised to $367ish. Could still push above $370. The retrace depends on how that 3 finished now.
SEDG I’d cover at that $362 and buy it back on the retrace.
VALE As expected were seeing some rejection near the 61.8…Raised the Stop $19 should not break below that now. We could grind here but with market strength we should get up and go to around $23.28 pretty quick. Then we continue into early 2023 2023 to around $27.85…
I like runs into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases when a count supports a thesis I will plan to role a % of gains (5-25%) into the next month calls. So when, I do take something into earnings its usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind count history, sentiment, and earning’s history ranges play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see earnings calendar for the week beginning April 4th here.
Next Entry Window Short / Trims
Charts Posted in Chat
Remember to follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes for added market thoughts.