California To The Rescue – Issue 20

A weekly news and trading piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering crypto currencies. Read my Future Of Money Primer and Using Crypto Trade Shots for the basics to follow along.

It’s time to seriously consider what percentage of your portfolio should be held in the Cryptoverse. Crypto is still very speculative, but, the risks and rewards are unprecedented. Travel with me as I navigate crypto, NFTs, DeFi and the Metaverse.

Shooter’s & Kirk Spano’s Crypto Thesis

The short story is that most cryptocurrencies are going to zero, but there will be survivors that rise to much higher price ranges. This is a journey of separating winners from losers.

We expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to be among the biggest, if not the biggest, winners. Along the way, we can trade the larger moves for added gains.

We also agree that NFTs and the Metaverse will be have multitrillion dollar flows. That’s a total addressable market worth getting to know very well.

Crypto Focus

We were on the edge of the cliff before California Gov. Newsom signed an executive order for state agencies to move in tandem with the federal government on crafting regulations. I guess that was the last straw! As HODLers between 155 and 345 days became sellers. Initially, LT HODLer (over 345 days) absorbed the supply. Once that wore off, the Shrimp’s lack of interest ended in a flush to support of $35407.00. It’s looking like a capitulation low! But we won’t have confirmation until a higher low gets put in. Now we have numerous broken counts in the alt. coins that will need time to mend.

Bitcoin & Ethereum

Bitcoin So far, it has held where it needed to so far. For the time being, I’m holding my MARA put as my hedge.

Bitcoin USD Pair (Updated 05/05/2022

GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

Grayscale Bitcoin TR (Updated 05/05/2022

Ethereum It has held up well in comparison to other alt. coins. I don’t like that ABC look. But I can get over that as long as we hold onto that $2500 here.

Ethereum USD Pair (Updated 05/05/2022

ETHE Grayscale Ethereum Trust

Grayscale Ethereum TR (Updated 05/05/2022

Alt Coins

Thoughts and charts on alt coins that are in play and might join the winner’s circle.

Make sure to adhere to a rules based approach to trading using technical indicators. And, we highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.

Flowground: (FLOW) (revised profile March 6, 2022)

FLOW/USD Continue to cost average in using half of what your normal size would be.

FLOW Blockchain Weekly Count (last updated on 05/04/2022).

LINK/USD (revised profile March 6, 2022) Continue to cost average by using half of what your normal size would be. I expect some type of banking supervision soon. Once that drops, Bank of America will be all over these contracts.

The Chainlink/US Dollar Weekly Count Chart (last updated on 05/04/2022).

CRV/USD Continue to cost average in using half of what your normal size would be.

Curve DAO Token / US Dollar Pair Weekly Count (last updated on 05/04/2022).

MANA/USD (Decentraland)– Hold — we have a lower count now. Start cost averaging back in at half of what your normal position size would be at that 0.88.

MANA (Decentraland) Weekly Chart (last updated on 05/04/2022)

ADA/USD — HOLD — we have a lower count now. Start cost averaging back in at half of what your normal position size would be at that 0.50.

Cardano Weekly Count Chart (last updated on 05/05/2022).

AXS/USD –HOLD — Let’s wait and confirm this holds. It says the count is in, but I don’t like the ABC look lower and the alternative count in pink.

The AXES US Dollar Pair Weekly Count (last updated on 05/05/2022).

SAND/USD Steady as she goes. Continue to average cost in using normal position size.

The SANDBOX / US Dollar Pair Weekly Count (last updated on 05/05/2022).

Solana Staking & Validators’ Guide

SOL/USD continue to cost average in at half of what your normal position size would be at that 0.50.

The SOLONA Weekly Count (last updated on 05/05/2022).

Crypto Stocks

Marathon Digital Holding, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) (revised earnings March 6, 2022)

MARA count says it’s in. I like the fact that BTC bounced at $35.4K support! Welcome to Crypto. It has looked like it was dead several dozen times since 2012. Talk about deja vu. I cannot tell you the number of times I’ve been here, ultimately to miss most lows, only to average in later… so I’m going to talk the talk. Wait for the trigger, and then the back-test, and then continue to cost average in. But I don’t like the ABC look lower and the alternative count in pink, much like AXS.

Marathon Digital Hldgs Inc Weekly Count (last updated on 05/05/2022).

Scott Henderson’s Risk Disclosure & Disclaimers

Follow me on Twitter @swingtradenotes for charts, quick thoughts and smart remarks.

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