Swing Trade Notes

A weekly piece by Shooter (Scott Henderson) covering a few conviction swing trade ideas. Shooter’s work is based on Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators. It requires access to chat! Follow along in chat. If you are going to swing trade, you need to check the chat several times a day, get notifications, or don’t trade them.

We recommend starting with a few contracts until you understand the process. Then, you should use the same position size for each trade and set a 50% trailing stop on all positions unless I post another level. Then cap your risk by limiting your position to around 1% or less in any one trade and no more than 5-20% as a total allocation in all swing positions. Take the time to read “Using Shooter’s Swing Notes”. After all, you are your own captain. Please review our risk disclosures at the end of this article.

My2Cents

Could the bottom be in? Yes, we have 9 and 13 Demark trigger and three 80% up days in a row. That’s a sign! We also had that same dynamic on March 18, 2020, just before a 28% crash. So, one out of the last five (9/13) triggers failed and we had continuation. My bias is for a run into the Fed next week, then we head for a new low. I’m not perfect, and it would not be the first time I’m wrong! However, that does not mean we don’t come off at any minute. If you are going to chase it, stay small, use your levels and use clear profit levels and book them. This is where retail gets killed! Don’t bet the farm! When we start to find a top, I’ll probably like MU and AMZN as shorts. But we really need the oil sector to come off for the next leg down to start. So, we could be here until gas reaches a level that just stalls consumption. Maybe $8 a gallon?

Earnings

The Shooter likes to run into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases, when a count supports a thesis, I will plan to roll a percentage of gains (5–25%) into the next month’s calls. So when I do take something into earnings, it’s usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind that count history, sentiment, and earning history ranges all play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see this week’s earnings calendar here and next week’s here.

Shooter’s Trade Ideas:

Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the Plug & Plays, VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, and short ideas (which are NEVER from the VSL which is a long-only list). Plus, tracking of open trades discussed in the past few weeks.

Crypto can be found in Crypto Trade Shots.

Conviction: Long Swing Trade Idea

MU

Probably runs to $77 with market strength! Will chase on a breakout of $74.73.

Conviction: Short Swing Trade Ideas

Tracking Recent Trades

XLE

We are currently selling June $75 puts and we added July $90 calls. I expect this to run through the summer.

HAL

We are currently holding June $40 calls and July $44 calls

Remember to follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes for added market thoughts.