Is Three Times a Charm? – Issue 44

A weekly Elliott Wave trading piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering Crypto Currencies. Read my Future Of Money Primer and Using Crypto Trade Shots for the basics to follow along.

It’s time to seriously consider what percentage of your portfolio should be held in the Cryptoverse. Crypto is still very speculative, but the risks and rewards are unprecedented. Travel with me as I navigate crypto, NFTs, DeFi, and the Metaverse.

Shooter’s & Kirk Spano’s Crypto Thesis

The short story is that most cryptocurrencies are going to zero, but there will be survivors that rise to much higher price ranges. This is a journey of separating winners from losers.

We expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to be among the biggest, if not the biggest, winners. Along the way, we can trade the larger moves for added gains.

We also agree that NFTs and the Metaverse will have multitrillion dollar flows. That’s a total addressable market worth getting to know very well.

Is Three Times a Charm?

As I’m writing this article for the third time, we are now back-testing the September 2022 low of $18138.40. If that breaks, we should slice right through the June 2022 low of $17,600.00 and put in my divergent lower low I’ve been looking for since June.

My2Cents

This stagnation is becoming real as crypto as a whole remains depressed. Bitcoin is off its all-time high by more than 70%. Who knew? Many analysts have now joined me in looking for a break lower – to retest its June lows. $18,138.40 is the first line in the sand. Then we see that $17,600.00 holds. If it does not hold, it will be the first time Bitcoin has closed with an even number that has not held. I mean, zero cents!

Shooter’s Crypto Picks And Sector Stocks

My conviction ideas on crypto and stocks with crypto exposure. Based on my AI assisted proprietary Elliott Wave technical analysis. Remember to follow along in chat if you are going to swing trade a portion of your account. I recommend trading no more than 20% of your account.

Make sure to adhere to a rules based approach to trading using technical indicators. And, we highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.

Crypto Elliot Wave Counts Major Pairs-Grayscale Trusts

XBT/USD (BTCUSD) first real sign of a bottom now appears in the Bollinger Bands (BB). They have tightened up significantly compared to last week in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The thing about the slope of hope here is that once the BB tightens, targeting is a bit more complex vs. when it turns down and you have a broadening pattern. AKA, they can extend for a while sometimes, but it is unusual to exceed one standard deviation from here unless you have a catalyst.

Bitcoin/US Dollar Pair Weekly Count (updated on 10/19/2022).

GBTC (Bitcoin ETF) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC GBTC) is an alternative for non-crypto account holders. See the prospectus.

I’m allocating 5% of my weekly gains to GBTC. AKA, their lawsuit with the the SEC has merit.

Should get a nice bounce soon! Bias has not changed, not does it hold???

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC Weekly Count (updated on 10/19/2022).

ETH/USD same as Bitcoin, BB have tightened up significantly. Yet we have a much lower count on ETHE vs. what we have in Ethereum spot and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin/US Dollar Pair Weekly Count (updated on 10/19/2022).

Equality is still way down there!

If you don’t have a crypto account, you can also buy Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

Grayscale Ethereum Trust (OTC ETHE) is an alternative for non-crypto account holders. See the perspectus.

Same tightening up in the Bollinger Bands. Yet we have a much lower count on ETHE vs. what we have in Ethereum spot and Bitcoin.


Grayscale Ethereum Trust Daily Count (updated on 10/19/2022).

Full Size Allocation

XRP Not much has changed since last still building out the flag.

Ripple/USD Pair (Updated 10/19/2022)

Alt. Coins

Full Size Allocation

LINK/USD The Swift news got us back to full position size on the allocation. Once target one is achieved and we back-test I’ll catch up with allocation I held back during the drawdown period.

LINK/USD (Updated 10/12/2022)

1/4 Size Allocation

CRV/USD Still holding the base.

1/4 Size Allocation

ADA (Cardano) nice base!

Crypto Stocks

HIVE I’d take 1/2 on a $2.82 print if you have the Dec $3.00 puts and run 20% trailing stop on the balance.

HIVE Blockchain Technologies Ltd (updated 10/19/2022)

RBLX pulled on user growth!

MARA: Still does not support the Bitcoin count!

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (Updated 10/19/2022)

Like to learn more about Cryptocurrencies? Crash course on Bitcoin and Economy

Scott Henderson’s Risk Disclosure & Disclaimers

Follow me on Twitter @swingtradenotes for charts, quick thoughts and smart remarks.