Swing Trade Notes

A weekly piece by Shooter (Scott Henderson) covering a few conviction swing trade ideas. Shooter’s work is based on Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators. It requires access to chat! Follow along in chat. If you are going to swing trade, you need to check the chat several times a day, get notifications, or don’t trade them.

We recommend starting with a few contracts until you understand the process. Then, you should use the same position size for each trade and set a 50% trailing stop on all positions unless I post another level. Then cap your risk by limiting your position to around 1% or less in any one trade and no more than 5-20% as a total allocation in all swing positions. Take the time to read “Using Shooter’s Swing Notes”. After all, you are your own captain. Please review our risk disclosures at the end of this article.

If we see reduced risk coming out of BNP and/or HSBC, it is most likely going to become a global event. Then it heads to Japan and then it heads west, with the most likely victims being Chase and Bank of America because they have the highest exposure in the derivatives space.

My2Cents

We had a nice AAPL induced recovery rally to close out the week. The question now is will it hold? On that note, I think it’s fair to say this is constructive after an Amazon, Microsoft, and Google miss. Franky, if AAPL and NFLX had not held up we would at least 200 points lower here.

The chatter is getting louder that the Fed backs off from some of my tells, maybe we do get a 50 basis point. However, I’m not sold on it yet with an 8.2% CPI number. Were in no mans land into December because it will be tough for the Fed to gauge CPI into the Christmas Holiday. So doing a 50 basis point hike in November and 50 basis points hike in December is logical. Yet what part calling inflation transitory was ever logical? They should just raised 25 basis in the beginning for two or three quarters and been done with it.

Earnings

Lots of midcap earnings this week. I’m mostly, interested in Pharma Tuesday with Pfizer and Lilly. Then ROKU, CVS and Humana on Wednesday, then PayPal, TWLO, and Starbucks on Thursday.

The Shooter likes to run into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases, when a count supports a thesis, I will plan to roll a percentage of gains (5–25%) into the next month’s calls. So when I do take something into earnings, it’s usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind that count history, sentiment, and earning history ranges all play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see this week’s earnings calendar here and next week’s here.

Shooter’s Trade Ideas:

Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the Plug & Plays, VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, and short ideas (which are NEVER from the VSL which is a long-only list). Plus, tracking of open trades discussed in the past few weeks.

Crypto can be found in Crypto Trade Shots.

All swing trades are NOT positions trades. If shares get put to you, sell them!

Conviction: Long Swing Trade Idea

LMT sold a Dec $380 put for $4 + 

Looks like UNG may get assigned! If so roll right out of them.

UNG sold a Apr $18 put for $2.32+ low should come in around $17.34 and then bounce back above $18. I might add something back here…I don’t ever like it when something is rejected that hard.

HD moved to Primary Wave Set-up

Looks like GOOG may get assigned! If so roll right out of them.

GOOG sold Dec $90 put for $3.40 plus

NFLX moved to Primary Wave Set-up

UUP some divergence in RSI with the second unconfirmed high. It will probably stay elevated until rates come down. Our don’t Expire until November but $27 is a long ways down from here.

Invesco DB US Dollar Bull (Updated 10/30/2022)

NFE “Still has room” Sell a Dec-Jan $35 put or buy a Jan-Mar $45-50 call.

New Fortress Energy Inc (Updated 10/30/2022)

Conviction: Short Swing Trade Ideas

TLT Bought runners (2 contracts) Jan. $95 puts for $3.80 or less, $90 puts for $2.05 or less, and $85 puts for $1.05 or less.

CS bought a Mar $3 put for $0.45 or less.

Credit Suisse Group AG (Updated 10/30/2022)

Tracking Recent Trade

Disclaimers and Disclosures

Remember to follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes for added market thoughts.