Swing Trade Notes

A weekly piece by Shooter (Scott Henderson) covering a few conviction swing trade ideas and my crypto picks. Shooter’s work is based on Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators. It requires access to chat! Follow along in chat. If you are going to swing trade, you need to check the chat several times a day, get notifications, or don’t trade them.

We recommend starting with a few contracts until you understand the process. Then, you should use the same position size for each trade and set a 50% trailing stop on all positions unless I post another level. Then cap your risk by limiting your position to around 1% or less in any one trade and no more than 5-20% as a total allocation in all swing positions. Take the time to read “Using Shooter’s Swing Notes”. After all, you are your own captain. Please review our risk disclosures at the end of this article.

If we see reduced risk coming out of BNP and/or HSBC, it is most likely going to become a global event. Then it heads to Japan and then it heads west, with the most likely victims being Chase and Bank of America because they have the highest exposure in the derivatives space.

My2Cents

With FTX this should be an interesting week. At least I’m on the edge of my seat! Not exactly sure on how to capitalize on it but I’m looking. I think we see some forced selling maybe by Tuesday. Outside of that we look slightly bullish into Christmas.

P.S. I’m still pretty fever on off around 102 so when I get spent I’ll be laying down. Just post any questions and I’ll do my best to keep up this week.

Earnings

On Tuesday we get Workday and Net App, then Salesforce on Wednesday. Then on Thursday we get Kroger’s, ULTA, BigLots, and TD Bank.

The Shooter likes to run into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases, when a count supports a thesis, I will plan to roll a percentage of gains (5–25%) into the next month’s calls. So when I do take something into earnings, it’s usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind that count history, sentiment, and earning history ranges all play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see this week’s earnings calendar here and next week’s here.

Shooter’s Trade Ideas:

Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the Plug & Plays, VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, and short ideas (which are NEVER from the VSL which is a long-only list). Plus, tracking of open trades discussed in the past few weeks.

All swing trades are NOT positions trades. If shares get put to you, sell them!

Conviction: Long Swing Trade Idea

UNG sold a Apr $18 put for $2.32+. Energy markets are acting weird, never like that. Thinking I’ll roll out the puts this week?*?* (Means I’m on the fence).

United States Natural Gas Fd (Updated 11/20/2022)

NFE “Still has room” Sell a Dec-Jan $35 put or buy a Jan-Mar $45-50 call.

New Fortress Energy Inc (Updated 11/27/2022)

Conviction: Short Swing Trade Ideas

TLT I really don’t like this symbol! I’m going to get my $90 but I’ll probably have to roll out maybe to May.

iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF (Updated 11/26/2022)

CS bought Mar $3 put for $0.45 or less.

Credit Suisse Group AG (Updated 11/26/2022)

Tracking Recent Trades

Crypto Elliot Wave Counts Major Pairs-Grayscale Trusts

A weekly Elliott Wave trading piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, alt coins, blockchain, crypto and metaverse stocks.

The short story is that most cryptocurrencies are going to zero, but there will be survivors that rise to much higher price ranges. We expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to be among the biggest, if not the biggest. The world of Blockchain is far bigger than crypto though and we expect some big winners there too. This is a journey of separating winners from losers.

XBT/USD (BTCUSD) Looks like a solid down trend now. That said, its been wrong many times before. $17,738 a good spot to take partial and $10,100 isa good spot to back of the truck.

GBTC (Bitcoin ETF) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC GBTC) is an alternative for non-crypto account holders. See the prospectus.

Should get a nice bounce soon! Bias has not changed, not does it hold???

ETH/USD Ethereum looks really good. Bollinger bands on ETHE look look qurakey thought. Should be good soon to start scaling in. Expect at least one 50% push lower to around $600 and that should be good. We won’t know if were out of the woods for a few weeks on FTX.

If you don’t have a crypto account, you can also buy Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

Grayscale Ethereum Trust (OTC ETHE) is an alternative for non-crypto account holders. See the perspectus.

Full Size Allocation

XRP Nice small pop on that technical SEC.

Alt. Coins

Cut Allocation in 1/2 until Bitcoin finds the bottom

Cosmos (ATOM) A Primary Wave set-up with weekly trigger so 3/4 position size. add to full position size on breakout of $17.26.

Staking represent an additional level of risk outside of the underlying. While Stride offers a compelling argument for connecting Staking and DeFi and there is no doubt they destined for growth as the Cosmos grows because they are at the forefront of financing those projects. See my most recent article on Staking here.

Full Size Allocation

LINK/USD The Swift news got us back to full position size on the allocation. Once target one is achieved and we back-test I’ll catch up with allocation I held back during the drawdown period.

1/4 Size Allocation

CRV/USD putting in a divergent low now.

1/4 Size Allocation

ADA (Cardano) were holding!

Like to learn more about Cryptocurrencies? Crash course on Bitcoin and Economy

Scott Henderson’s Risk Disclosure & Disclaimers

Remember to follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes for added market thoughts.