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Welcome. The content below is free to the public. It might be worth what you are paying for it. Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain - that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view - publishing Monday and Friday afternoons.
“My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December...” Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to Congress in his first address to members.
My immediate reaction - "oh boy, this guy doesn't get it. We're at a peak on the roller coaster and he's looking backwards. This is going to be an interesting ride."
Before I start, let's remember our asset allocation approaches and what applies to each of us. From the "Getting Started" report "Intelligent Asset Allocation: Better Returns & Lower Risk."
This week, Nutrien (NTR) raised its dividend, announced a buyback and positively revised their outlook. Several keys to fertilizer prices exist, including slowly rising demand, flattish supply and the impact of climate change. A key thesis that many in the market overlook is that drought makes the value of fertilizer higher over time. We know that drought is increasing across the planet.
According to the USGS: "No substitutes exist for potassium as an essential plant nutrient and as an essential nutritional requirement for animals and humans. Manure and glauconite (greensand) are low-potassium-content sources that can be profitably transported only short distances to crop fields."
Enter the potash mining companies.
While I am not a "symmetrical" guy, I do understand that most people like symmetry and schedules. So, to help us all keep our life balance, I am going publish on a more regular schedule. I think that will make us more predictable and productive.
That said, let's throw in an investment lesson. Symmetry sucks. That's not how to make money. The idea that a stock just looks right is so wrong it's pretty funny when put onto a chart of any single stock that has crashed or time frame where the market goes from up a long time to straight down:
In one of the earlier articles leading up to my volatility and mini-correction call, I mentioned that the run up in stocks could have been due to foreign direct investment spiking. Turns out, that's exactly what it was:
Each month at about options expiration I will post a new set of option trades that you can look to make. I will focus on:
"In relation to the 201 solar tariff decision, the product exclusion process was published today. We will continue to work through this process with the Administration to convey that only SunPower can make a copper-plated, interdigitated back contact solar cells and that with an exclusion, SunPower can further invest in research and development to improve on its market-leading efficiency and performance while demonstrating America's continuing leadership in solar energy innovation. Unfortunately, we are already seeing a negative near-term impact from the ruling as the increased costs due to import tariffs have delayed certain 2018 projects and made other projects uneconomical. We have also put our planned $20 million U.S. employment expansion on hold and are considering other significant cost saving initiatives to lower our overall expense structure and improve our financial performance. Given the early stages of this review, we are not prepared to discuss specific actions at this time but expect to communicate our plans on or before our next earnings call. Our focus has been, and will continue to be, on driving cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet and positioning the company for sustained profitability."
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