The Contested Election Is Back


The U.S. Presidential election will come down to 5 states: Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The uncounted votes are generally mail in and urban, so likely skew Biden, however, Trump’s leads might be insurmountable.

If Georgia flips to Biden, then he has a very clear path to the Presidency. If not, then Pennsylvania becomes the key state. I do not believe we will know until Thursday or Friday.

In discussing the election early in morning Wednesday, President Trump invoked Supreme Court challenges. The stock market immediately tanked. The contested election scenario suddenly jumped back up.

My quicktakes so far on the election. 

  • First, I am amazed that the race is this close.
  • I am embarrassed as an American that hundreds of thousands of votes were lost in the mail and other forms of voter suppression invalidated or prevented even more votes.
  • I am proud that about two-thirds of Americans voted.
  • I think it is telling about the disconnect between worldviews of Americans that the only demographic group supporting President Trump is white males, but it looks like enough that President Trump probably squeeks out a victory.
  • If President Trump does in fact win, I do fully expect a financial crisis within a year or two.
  • In that scenario, I have to ask you to become more nimble traders and willing to pay even closer attention to your portfolio.
  • As I have discussed a number of times now in webinars, and I will write a comprehensive article on it, the sign of a financial crisis will be the dollar collapsing. 
  • Gold becomes an even better investment with a Trump win due to reliance on monetary policy and the continuation of massive deficits from tax cuts.