Preview of the Next Month


Summary

Forget FOMO, get a FOGYAK.

Technical analysis ALWAYS gives way to Fundamental analysis.

Trump tariffs will lead to earnings warnings.

Poker, Investing & 3 Weeks in the Desert.

Freedom to save capitalism.

I’m taking grandma to breakfast in a few minutes and then to her bridge game. At 89, about to be 90, she needs a little help getting around. That said, in the confines of her apartment or a restaurant, she can still out drink me. 

 

FOMO to FOGYAK

A year ago I said this: 

YuskoHow am I doing? 

I see Avi Gilbert put an article out that said: 

Sentiment Speaks: Trade Wars Are Really Good For The Stock Market

Here’s the thing, I’ve known Avi since about 2012. He’s a good technical guy. He really is. But, he doesn’t understand why what he does works most of the time. And he sure doesn’t understand why it fails spectacularly sometimes.  

Here’s the answer: technical analysis ALWAYS gives away to fundamental analysis. 

That said, fundamental analysis is hard, most people get it wrong and most people don’t know how to use technical analysis or quant analysis to put it on a timeline.

The Core 4 approach uses quantitative analysis (which is really the math of technical analysis) & some technical analysis (basic intermediate and long-term chart reading) to look for market strength, weakness and turning points. 

Here’s an example of how I incorporate quant/technical. Right now, I am looking at several international markets due to undervaluation, i.e. Mexico and China. But, I am waiting for quant signals that the bloodshed is over and it’s safe to buy that value. 

Using pure technicals to do that creates a lot of traps. Like elevator shafts down when the technical analysis fails. 

There must always be a fundamental foundation for any technical story, or that story can end badly. 

Right now, folks ought to check their FOMO, fear of missing out, and replace it with FOGYAK, fear of getting your assets kicked. Why? Because the technical signals which are moderately positive now, which means positive but weak, do not reflect that either this quarter or next, companies will start to give warnings about the trade war consequences. 

I don’t know if we get warnings as early as this week or next, or if not until October. So, I’m raising cash by taking profits and selling covered calls. If you are a moderate to conservative investor, you should be doing the same in my opinion. 

Here is the beginning of FOGYAK in last week’s webinar: https://youtu.be/2N7EQJT3GPE

Poker, Investing & 3 Weeks in the Desert

You’ll get previews of the 4 or 5 or 6 articles I end up writing about analogies of poker to investing and my three weeks playing poker last month. I am trying to set up interviews now. I think these will be interesting to at least me, so I’m going to write about one per week until I leave on my August 3 week trip following the Brewers around, visiting friends at a summer camp, playing the WSOP circuit in Foxwoods and visiting NYC and DC. 

Somebody said to me that they wished they had my life of leisure. I told them to invest like me. They said they only had about $35k in a Roth IRA. I said, “that’s enough to get started.”

My first investment was $15k into my SEP IRA in 2002. I’ve made 11 contributions, the last one in 2014. That account is over a million dollars now. There’s a few poker analogies in that experience too. Including going almost busto in 2015 (lost 65%), then sextupling up the past 2 years on very aggressive all-in investing. I’m much more balanced now with 35% in cash. 

FOGYAK is leading me to increase my asset allocation to 35% cash right now. The models will reflect that this week. 

Freedom to Save Capitalism

My annual freedom letter is late. It’s gotten very involved and is becoming a treatise. I’ll be done the next week or two. 

More soon, including updated lists and the Retirement Income Options portfolio official release.