Every weekend I post a brief review of what we published on Fundamental Trends, what caught my eye the past week and a preview of the week to come. Use this piece as a quick way to find the important investment trends.
Fundamental Trends Articles This week
I issued the second “sell almost everything” alert this year. Economic data continues to be weak, including employment, and the “V” shape recovery is a no-go. Valuations are high. Momentum is at extremes. The “smart money” is selling. Margin and options are at speculative levels. And the Fed is no longer printing money. Watch the webinar and download the presentation deck.
I posted the “Plug & Play Portfolio Models” for stocks. Buy zones were updated for 44 top companies plus Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet.
I posted an alert to start trimming bond holdings as most of the gains have been made and risk has risen to near the same as owning equities.
These are a few of the most important financial articles I read this week.
Investing Quick Take For Next Week
A quick look at what we need to think about next week. I also suggest a weekly read of Jeff Miller’s “Weighing The Week Ahead.” I try not to overlap Jeff, so consider my quick take and read his article.
Keep an eye on unemployment statistics for July coming out on Friday. If employment is not getting significantly better after the rebound off of the bottom, then we have problems.
The Briefing.com Consensus forecast for July unemployment is 10.5%. I think there is a strong likelihood of a miss, especially if data errors were cleaned up from prior months.
Those problems will especially big if Congress does not keep the majority of unemployment benefits and eviction protections.
The stock market will not react well to a perceived weakening of household finances. Remember, a huge portion of disposable income was from government April to July.
If people end up needing money to pay bills, the CARES Act allows folks to take up to $100,000 from their retirement plans in the form of a loan. If they do that, it will result in forced selling of stocks. The longer term problem is that loan will likely never be repaid, meaning the money never gets reinvested.
The dollar has shown signs of resilience during its sell-off. If the global economy continues to struggle, the dollar will hold firm. Though, I still like the Aussie and Swiss Franc as places to diversify.
If the dollar actually rallies, that will send asset prices down quickly.
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Top Financial & Investing Websites
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