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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.

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A Market In The Middle

As I covered in the last webinar, there are two potential short-term setups for this stock market. The first is a rally into summer, with maybe a hiccup, more rally and then the beginnings of a broader correction by early 2020. The second scenario is a small correction now and then a big rally into at least H1 of next year.  Either way, we probably see an S&P 500 (SPY) […]

A Fast Developing New Secular Trend

The three most powerful natural forces in the global economy are aging-demographics, technology and climate change. While most recognize the first two, many deny the third. Most people don’t invest based on any of the three or just touch on tech. What I will jump start you on this year is that a massive new trend, based around all three factors, is developing. And it is developing very fast. There […]

Emotions And Trading

Dick Diamond is a fairly well known trader whose approach differs from mine. However, this section on “Emotional Discipline” is fairly universal.  As you’ve read and heard me say countless times, scale into your positions. He has a similar 80/20 style position building approach.  Where we might differ a bit is that he is a quick “cord cutter” when it comes to trades that move against him. If you are […]