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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.

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Excess Capacity & Deflation

This past week the markets rallied on below average volume. While many momentum investors underplay the idea of volume, to me it tells a very important tale. Because 70%-90% of market activity in any period is typically large investors, when volume is low, that means big investors at a minimum are abstaining from buying. That is a bad sign for retail (small) investors, typcially including mutual fund and self-directed investors. […]

Catalysts for a Correction

Well my birthday week was good for the domestic markets as most ended up about 3% bringing us back to near the even line for the year. So far in 2015, we have had the type of volatility that I foreshadowed back in my October and January letters to clients of my firm and my opening letter on MarketWatch this year. In those articles I went over investments to avoid […]

Super Sunday

As I sit in my Green Bay Packers t-shirt at my keyboard I am still quietly lamenting that I will not be watching my team in the Super Bowl today. There is some consolation, I do like Russell Wilson, I have friends from Boston who will feel good if the Pats win and at least I’ll get to hear Katy Perrry Roar even if I can’t see a Packer score. […]

Greek Elections

I waited until the Greek elections were in to write this. What we have learned now is that Greece is indeed going to play hardball with the Troika and Germany. There is no telling what this might entail. My bet against the Euro which I described on Scutify in detail since October is now up over 200% since that time. It appears that the Euro is on its way to […]

Secular Bear Market So Far

Energy

This past week continued the volatility that we have been warning about and following. While Friday ended the week on a postive note, we are not sure how long that can last. As you can see on our webcast, the market remains under pressure despite some up days which are mixed in. Energy remains a big story. We are seeing the early stages of some reversals in the stocks that […]

Asymmetry

The markets continue to exhibit volatility that hasn’t been regularly present in a few years. While markets are not as volatile as 2011 yet, the end of QE in the U.S. and economic challenges around the globe signal that the easy to ride Fed reflation is over.  Algorithmically, we see clear signs that the market is in a topping process. This process has been going on since early summer of […]

U.S. Stock Indexes

Fundamental Trends for the New Year

Over the past few decades with the rise of a financial media that is always looking for something to say, the flow of information to the public has become more polluted. It has gotten to the point that investment news almost completely ignores politically non-biased economic thought or the fundamental analysis of companies. In the place of actual financial news, we have become subjected to the cult of personality that is […]