Coronavirus is causing severe human suffering. The equity markets are also suffering. However, valuations were looking for a reason to correct. The stock market can easily drop another 25-35%. Use this correction to move away from “old economy” disrupted investments and move towards “smart everything” and alternative energy world investments.
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I studied economics, political science and writing in college. I have now been in finance for over 25 years. I have learned that only one thing is certain and that is nothing is certain.
As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.
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In our annual forecast we suggested an early year correction driven by a volatility event. On Twitter in early January, I posted that coronavirus was the most important story developing. It is now threatening the stock market and global economy. Here’s a simple way to think about volatility now.
Screening for stocks should help you whittle down to a list of companies that you can spend time studying. These basics will help you whittle out about 80% or more of the market. This will leave you with a very good chance to buy great companies at low prices.
The market is volatile. Risk is pervasive. Using simple technical tools can help you with you with your buys and sells. We are primarily position traders meaning that we seek to hold for quarters and years, not days and weeks. That is at the heart of our methodology.
The repo market is in disarray and Fed bailing is now approaching a half trillion dollars. Is this QE or a bailout? I suspect it’s a stealth hedge fund bailout. A big one.
This piece is available to anybody with a subscription or a FREE Library Card. Find out how we are trading the first half of 2020 and what might develop. Hint, we expect volatility to increase in 2020 and the year to potentially be a lot like 2018 ending in a crash.
This is my summary 2020 outlook. As I have discussed before, prognostications though often accurate, have difficulty providing precise enough time frames to trade. Because of that, I think investors should consider different scenarios, from most likely to least likely, and have a game plan for each. — You can access this piece with a Free Library Card! Sign-up today.
A Special Report that I am giving to clients of my investment advisory for the 2020 New Year. Webinar linked. Get access with a Free Library Card.
Kirk’s Weekend Review: Mini Trade-Deal, Conflicting Economics, Fed Standing Pat, Brexit And Investing In Alt Energy & The Smart Grid
This week we finally got the well publicized “phase 1” trade deal with China. We also got more conflicting economic data and news on Brexit. My webinar this week was about investing in alternative energy and the smart grid in the 2020s.
Each weekend I provide a quick review piece to help you find what you need most. I also include some “Quick Thoughts” to help put things into context. To start, here is the link to this week’s webinar: Euphoria, #Crash2020 & The Coming Retirement Crisis The stock market is on the verge of finally having a “euphoric” or “delusional” blow-off top. People have been saying this was right around the […]
The Peak Oil Plateau is arriving earlier than expected. Investors need to prepare for the risks and opportunities. Read this piece with a Free Library Card or any membership.
Volatility refuses to rise despite a trade war, impeachment, falling earnings expectations, a Fed in bailout mode and high valuations. What gives?
Each quarter we provide an outlook and gameplan. It is concise and covers our big picture view. This report will be available to anybody with a Free Library Card in the future. If you do not have Free Library Card, sign up today.
I track technical analysts, including Avi Gilburt over at FATrader, Marc Chaikin, a point-and-figure guy here in Milwaukee, several candlestick makers and a few others. When their macro analysis lines up, it gives me pause. Right now, they are all telling a similar story:
The stock market is very likely to go lower from here.
Oil and gas stocks are under pressure from different directions. However, ultimately, prices will support profits. If you are afraid of oil and gas stocks now, maybe it’s time to buy.
Amidst all the unappointed trade worry warriors, de facto Lords of debt bombs and bongo bubble blowers preaching narratives to us about why, how and when the world is going to end again, I have but one Presidential thing to say to them…..Bull$µ!#.
The market got choppy on the “trade war” worries. That is opening up some trading opportunities for about the next year. Technical indicators are showing that we stand a good chance of seeing a big sell-off through next week, possibly heading as low as about 2600 on the S&P 500. It is unlikely that we see the December lows this time around as there is no tax-loss selling and no […]
Over the past 25 years I have learned more about investing each day. The one lesson I have learned over and over again is that we should ignore most investment ideas, even the good ones.
Each week I bookmark the articles, columns and editorials that I want to come back to and read again. Some of these pieces offer insights that I think are valuable, others are updates to something I am following and a few could be contrary indicators. Make no assumptions about what you are reading. Set aside opinions, ideology and feelings. Find the information that might not be inline with your thinking […]
Saudi Arabia has exerted itself and is once again in control of oil prices. President Trump was forced to deal on Iran waivers and is unlikely to regain control of oil prices.
IMO2020 which impacts maritime fuel requirements will shift spreads and keep light sweet crude prices firm come autumn.