Over the past 25 years I have learned more about investing each day. The one lesson I have learned over and over again is that we should ignore most investment ideas, even the good ones.
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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.
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Each week I bookmark the articles, columns and editorials that I want to come back to and read again. Some of these pieces offer insights that I think are valuable, others are updates to something I am following and a few could be contrary indicators. Make no assumptions about what you are reading. Set aside opinions, ideology and feelings. Find the information that might not be inline with your thinking […]
Saudi Arabia has exerted itself and is once again in control of oil prices. President Trump was forced to deal on Iran waivers and is unlikely to regain control of oil prices.
IMO2020 which impacts maritime fuel requirements will shift spreads and keep light sweet crude prices firm come autumn.
As I covered in the last webinar, there are two potential short-term setups for this stock market. The first is a rally into summer, with maybe a hiccup, more rally and then the beginnings of a broader correction by early 2020. The second scenario is a small correction now and then a big rally into at least H1 of next year. Either way, we probably see an S&P 500 (SPY) […]
The three most powerful natural forces in the global economy are aging-demographics, technology and climate change. While most recognize the first two, many deny the third. Most people don’t invest based on any of the three or just touch on tech. What I will jump start you on this year is that a massive new trend, based around all three factors, is developing. And it is developing very fast. There […]
Dick Diamond is a fairly well known trader whose approach differs from mine. However, this section on “Emotional Discipline” is fairly universal. As you’ve read and heard me say countless times, scale into your positions. He has a similar 80/20 style position building approach. Where we might differ a bit is that he is a quick “cord cutter” when it comes to trades that move against him. If you are […]
Hello, my name is Kirk Spano. I am the publisher of Fundamental Trends and an investor for over 25 years. My track record is among the best as measured by TipRanks. In 2011, I was named “the World’s Next Great Investing Columnist” by MarketWatch of the Wall Street Journal Network. You can learn all about me here. I hope you enjoy the site and find it useful. More important than […]
Summary Shorter term price trends operate within longer term price trends. When short-term price trends break down in succession, long-term price trends become threatened. We have seen a sequential breakdown in short and intermediate term price trends for the stock market. The key long-term support for the bull market’s price trend is set to be tested this week, i.e. the bull market is in jeopardy. I have discussed the #crash2020 […]
Summary Options are derivatives and can cause your account destruction. Options are the best tool for managing risk, generating income and occasionally generating asymmetric gains. You are your own worst enemy on options by being greedy, unknowledgeable and inexperienced. Control your emotions, learn how options work, what options are for and practice trade in a paper (no money) account at your brokerage before ever using your hard earned money. […]
Summary When things seem terrible and people are scared, it’s time to be greedy. What is going on is essentially what we expected, though a bit more dragged out. Traders are bouncing the market around, but it makes me wonder how strong they are if this is the worst they can do. I’m a net buyer and repositioning into higher and higher quality. “And if they insist on trying to […]