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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.

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Are You Scared Yet?

Summary When things seem terrible and people are scared, it’s time to be greedy. What is going on is essentially what we expected, though a bit more dragged out. Traders are bouncing the market around, but it makes me wonder how strong they are if this is the worst they can do. I’m a net buyer and repositioning into higher and higher quality. “And if they insist on trying to […]

Get Nearly Fully Invested Soon

Summary I generally advocate holding a significant cash position in order to have money available to invest on corrections of markets, sectors or specific stocks. Selling cash-secured puts allows us to “recycle” money 4 or 5 times per year, keeping our cash balances high on average. With the current stock market choppiness, you should be looking to sell puts and buy stocks over the next two weeks. When earnings end, […]

4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook

Summary Earnings could provide a rough patch as companies announce lower revised estimates due to trade concerns. Do not expect a trade agreement with China as President Xi simply waits out President Trump. Oil prices are moving to the high-end of what I believe will be the oil price range during the “peak oil plateau” which is set to last about a decade. Investor Sentiment is average, but a year-end […]