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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.

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Emotions And Trading

Dick Diamond is a fairly well known trader whose approach differs from mine. However, this section on “Emotional Discipline” is fairly universal.  As you’ve read and heard me say countless times, scale into your positions. He has a similar 80/20 style position building approach.  Where we might differ a bit is that he is a quick “cord cutter” when it comes to trades that move against him. If you are […]

Secure Your Financial Freedom In An Age Of Change

Hello, my name is Kirk Spano. I am the publisher of Fundamental Trends and an investor for over 25 years. My track record is among the best as measured by TipRanks. In 2011, I was named “the World’s Next Great Investing Columnist” by MarketWatch of the Wall Street Journal Network. You can learn all about me here. I hope you enjoy the site and find it useful. More important than […]

Adjusting To Market Breakdowns

Summary Shorter term price trends operate within longer term price trends. When short-term price trends break down in succession, long-term price trends become threatened. We have seen a sequential breakdown in short and intermediate term price trends for the stock market. The key long-term support for the bull market’s price trend is set to be tested this week, i.e. the bull market is in jeopardy. I have discussed the #crash2020 […]

Don’t You Dare Trade Options Until You Read This!!!

Summary Options are derivatives and can cause your account destruction. Options are the best tool for managing risk, generating income and occasionally generating asymmetric gains. You are your own worst enemy on options by being greedy, unknowledgeable and inexperienced. Control your emotions, learn how options work, what options are for and practice trade in a paper (no money) account at your brokerage before ever using your hard earned money.   […]

Are You Scared Yet?

Summary When things seem terrible and people are scared, it’s time to be greedy. What is going on is essentially what we expected, though a bit more dragged out. Traders are bouncing the market around, but it makes me wonder how strong they are if this is the worst they can do. I’m a net buyer and repositioning into higher and higher quality. “And if they insist on trying to […]

Get Nearly Fully Invested Soon

Summary I generally advocate holding a significant cash position in order to have money available to invest on corrections of markets, sectors or specific stocks. Selling cash-secured puts allows us to “recycle” money 4 or 5 times per year, keeping our cash balances high on average. With the current stock market choppiness, you should be looking to sell puts and buy stocks over the next two weeks. When earnings end, […]

4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook

Summary Earnings could provide a rough patch as companies announce lower revised estimates due to trade concerns. Do not expect a trade agreement with China as President Xi simply waits out President Trump. Oil prices are moving to the high-end of what I believe will be the oil price range during the “peak oil plateau” which is set to last about a decade. Investor Sentiment is average, but a year-end […]

Preview of the Next Month

Summary Forget FOMO, get a FOGYAK. Technical analysis ALWAYS gives way to Fundamental analysis. Trump tariffs will lead to earnings warnings. Poker, Investing & 3 Weeks in the Desert. Freedom to save capitalism. I’m taking grandma to breakfast in a few minutes and then to her bridge game. At 89, about to be 90, she needs a little help getting around. That said, in the confines of her apartment or […]

The Iran Nuclear Deal Should End

I know some folks are skeptical of U.S. foriegn policy. That’s understandable. Anything that is imperfect is easy to criticize. And, everything is imperfect.  I take the view that America is a mostly benevolent influencer of global policy. We use economics, diplomacy and the military to push our view of the way the world should be. In most cases, our view of how the world ought to be, is right […]

Testing The 200-Day Moving Average Again

Summary The S&P 500 is testing its 200-day moving average for the 3rd time. If it holds, that is a very good sign for the short-term. Buybacks come back in May. Accumulate your favorite stocks and ETFs bringing cash down closer to 15% than 25%. Fortune tellers live in the future. So do people who want to put things off. So do fundamentalists. – Ed Seykota