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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.

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Are You Scared Yet?

Summary When things seem terrible and people are scared, it’s time to be greedy. What is going on is essentially what we expected, though a bit more dragged out. Traders are bouncing the market around, but it makes me wonder how strong they are if this is the worst they can do. I’m a net buyer and repositioning into higher and higher quality. “And if they insist on trying to […]

Get Nearly Fully Invested Soon

Summary I generally advocate holding a significant cash position in order to have money available to invest on corrections of markets, sectors or specific stocks. Selling cash-secured puts allows us to “recycle” money 4 or 5 times per year, keeping our cash balances high on average. With the current stock market choppiness, you should be looking to sell puts and buy stocks over the next two weeks. When earnings end, […]

4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook

Summary Earnings could provide a rough patch as companies announce lower revised estimates due to trade concerns. Do not expect a trade agreement with China as President Xi simply waits out President Trump. Oil prices are moving to the high-end of what I believe will be the oil price range during the “peak oil plateau” which is set to last about a decade. Investor Sentiment is average, but a year-end […]

Preview of the Next Month

Summary Forget FOMO, get a FOGYAK. Technical analysis ALWAYS gives way to Fundamental analysis. Trump tariffs will lead to earnings warnings. Poker, Investing & 3 Weeks in the Desert. Freedom to save capitalism. I’m taking grandma to breakfast in a few minutes and then to her bridge game. At 89, about to be 90, she needs a little help getting around. That said, in the confines of her apartment or […]

The Iran Nuclear Deal Should End

I know some folks are skeptical of U.S. foriegn policy. That’s understandable. Anything that is imperfect is easy to criticize. And, everything is imperfect.  I take the view that America is a mostly benevolent influencer of global policy. We use economics, diplomacy and the military to push our view of the way the world should be. In most cases, our view of how the world ought to be, is right […]

Testing The 200-Day Moving Average Again

Summary The S&P 500 is testing its 200-day moving average for the 3rd time. If it holds, that is a very good sign for the short-term. Buybacks come back in May. Accumulate your favorite stocks and ETFs bringing cash down closer to 15% than 25%. Fortune tellers live in the future. So do people who want to put things off. So do fundamentalists. – Ed Seykota

Oil Prices, Inflation And The Fed

See the ETF & OPTION trades at the bottom of the article… ================++++========================   “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Milton Friedman   There are multiple factors and scenarios that could play out in the short term regarding the economy and markets. The intersection of oil, inflation, trade and Fed policy is set to determine the direction both go. Ultimately, I believe that the tipping factor will be […]

Wait For The White’s Of The Market’s Eyes

The stock market swung in a wider than we’re used to range again today. The Dow (DIA) opened the day up a bit, then added on, before breaking down late. The S&P 500 (SPY) (VOO) followed suit. The NASDAQ (QQQ) was down all day on weakness from top holdings Facebook (FB) -5.05%, Microsoft (MSFT) -4.4%, Google (GOOG) -4.24%, NVIDIA (NVDA) -8.18% and Netflix (NFLX) -6.31%.  The markets are clearly digesting […]

Market Tells President To Stop It

President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on targeted, but yet to-be-determined, Chinese products in response to a “tremendous intellectual property theft situation.” He then described the trade deficit with China and requested it be reduced by 25% immediately, ignoring that the official cause of the tariffs was intellectual property theft. As I have been discussing since my 2017 annual letter to clients to recent “Macro Monday articles,” one of the […]

Weekly Webinar w/ Q&A 3-16-2018

This week we cover why government and central bank actions are failing to create sustained growth consistent with pre-financial crisis levels and the “slow growth forever” #slowgrowthforever reality. Why oil is set to rise and possibly rise a lot on geopolitical conflict and new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Finally we look at tightening liquidity and how that might impact stock and bond markets. {youtube}mrOVOcapIS8|600|450{/youtube}

Here’s What Gary Cohn Sees: #Tariffs = #Inflation + #Slowgrowth = #Stagflation

National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn is resigning from President Donald Trump’s administration over the tariffs that are being imposed on steel and aluminum. The immediate result was that Dow (SIA) and S&P 500 (SPY) futures got crushed in the aftermarket. We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow. Stock market poised to fall on news of Cohn’s departure from Trump’s White House Stock market, dollar rattled after Gary Cohn resigns […]

Friday Weekly Webinar Invite

Hello, I am committing to the Friday webinars. I think I’m up for it. Love to have you on when you can. I use a service called Zoom which does the recording for me and is usually pretty stable. Here’s the details for logging on:

Quick Thoughts on Fed Chair Powell

“My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December…” Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to Congress in his first address to members. My immediate reaction – “oh boy, this guy doesn’t get it. We’re at a peak on the roller coaster and he’s looking backwards. This is going to be an interesting ride.”

Macro Monday: Welcome To President Trump’s Economy And Markets

My letter to clients in 2017 focused on the Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Presidency. Now that President Trump has had a chance to enact some policies from his agenda, it is time to start evaluating the potential scenarios we could see unfold. I’ll briefly cover President Trump’s inherited circumstances, regulatory actions, global trade policy, taxes and his Fed Chair. Before I begin, a disclaimer from the linked letter: “… I […]

Kirk Q & A – Week After 1st Correction

Last week the markets became very volatile and sold off. The carnage wasn’t just domestic, it was global. China had a terrible week that culminated with investors protesting losses (tee-hee). The MSCI EAFE index was off 6.19%, while the MSCI emerging markets (EEM) were off 7.14%. That compares to 5.1% for the S&P 500 (SPY) (VOO) and Nasdaq’s (QQQ) 5.01%. See JP Morgan’s Weekly Market Recap. The rise of volatility […]

This Correction Could Have Another Leg Down

The surge in volatility might be more than just an isolated event, it could be a harbinger of what might come next.  Think back a long time ago to a market far, far away. Two Bear Stearns funds go bust. That was a harbinger of a financial crisis a year-and-a-half later.  Remember this headline? 2 Bear Stearns Funds Are Almost Worthless We might see a few like that with regard […]

The Only Thing We Have To Fear…

Are you getting scared yet? I want you to take a few minutes and meditate on how you feel about investing right now.  The stock market has sold off a couple percent, yes, just a couple, and volatility has risen to almost the normal average. That’s right, volatility isn’t above average yet. 

Using Seeking Alpha

Summary Seeking Alpha is making some changes to help create extra revenue due to falling ad generated income. SA is putting all “primary ticker” articles behind a paywall of a new service called “Pro” for $75 per month. There is an easy work around. Seeking Alpha, like much of the ad supported media, is facing a decline in advertising rates. Thus, they are looking to create additional revenue. I think […]