This week marked the third consecutive week that the stock market moved upward. A start reversal from January and in line with what I’ve been saying in my last two quarterly letters at my firm Bluemound Asset Management and my opening article of the year on MarketWatch – volatility will increase in 2015. Interestingly, as the monthly swings have certainly become more apparent, the slow grind up, has masked that underlying volatility to many […]
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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.
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This past week the markets rallied on below average volume. While many momentum investors underplay the idea of volume, to me it tells a very important tale. Because 70%-90% of market activity in any period is typically large investors, when volume is low, that means big investors at a minimum are abstaining from buying. That is a bad sign for retail (small) investors, typcially including mutual fund and self-directed investors. […]
Well my birthday week was good for the domestic markets as most ended up about 3% bringing us back to near the even line for the year. So far in 2015, we have had the type of volatility that I foreshadowed back in my October and January letters to clients of my firm and my opening letter on MarketWatch this year. In those articles I went over investments to avoid […]