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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.

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Asymmetry

The markets continue to exhibit volatility that hasn’t been regularly present in a few years. While markets are not as volatile as 2011 yet, the end of QE in the U.S. and economic challenges around the globe signal that the easy to ride Fed reflation is over.  Algorithmically, we see clear signs that the market is in a topping process. This process has been going on since early summer of […]

U.S. Stock Indexes

Fundamental Trends for the New Year

Over the past few decades with the rise of a financial media that is always looking for something to say, the flow of information to the public has become more polluted. It has gotten to the point that investment news almost completely ignores politically non-biased economic thought or the fundamental analysis of companies. In the place of actual financial news, we have become subjected to the cult of personality that is […]