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Having studied economics and being in finance for over two decades, I have learned that only one thing is certain – that almost nothing is certain. As we endeavor to come up with our best analysis of the world around us, the opportunities and risks, we have to try to overcome a myriad of issues including our own ignorance, biases and emotions. What follows are my attempts to overcome those obstacles. Welcome to my view.

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Excess Capacity & Deflation

This past week the markets rallied on below average volume. While many momentum investors underplay the idea of volume, to me it tells a very important tale. Because 70%-90% of market activity in any period is typically large investors, when volume is low, that means big investors at a minimum are abstaining from buying. That is a bad sign for retail (small) investors, typcially including mutual fund and self-directed investors. […]

Catalysts for a Correction

Well my birthday week was good for the domestic markets as most ended up about 3% bringing us back to near the even line for the year. So far in 2015, we have had the type of volatility that I foreshadowed back in my October and January letters to clients of my firm and my opening letter on MarketWatch this year. In those articles I went over investments to avoid […]

Super Sunday

As I sit in my Green Bay Packers t-shirt at my keyboard I am still quietly lamenting that I will not be watching my team in the Super Bowl today. There is some consolation, I do like Russell Wilson, I have friends from Boston who will feel good if the Pats win and at least I’ll get to hear Katy Perrry Roar even if I can’t see a Packer score. […]