Fundamental Trends Blog

Welcome to the Fundamental Trends blog. Here I cover macro themes with my Macro Dashes, you can access some of our previously embargoed investment research and I do a little house cleaning.

The content below is open to the public for free. It is my true hope that it helps you in some way. 

Fundamental Trends Blog

Hide and Seek with Vlad

Sometimes the only thing you can do is have fun with something that is potentially horribly scary. Vladimir Putin has not been seen in public for over a week now.  Why could this be potentially very frightening. Recently, the top NATO commander warned that Russia could easily be provoked into more aggressive actions. […]

Fundamental Trends Blog

Janet Yellen and the Feds

Tell me that Janet Yellen and the Feds doesn’t sound like a totally groovy band. For the past few months they have been singing that they will be raising interest rates this year sometime. Don’t ignore their music just because you might not like it. It’s an important sound man. […]

Fundamental Trends Blog

This Bull Market is Getting Old

This week marked the third consecutive week that the stock market moved upward. A start reversal from January and in line with what I’ve been saying in my last two quarterly letters at my firm Bluemound Asset Management and my opening article of the year on MarketWatch – volatility will increase in 2015.  […]

Fundamental Trends Blog

Excess Capacity & Deflation

This past week the markets rallied on below average volume. While many momentum investors underplay the idea of volume, to me it tells a very important tale. Because 70%-90% of market activity in any period is typically large investors, when volume is low, that means big investors at a minimum […]

Fundamental Trends Blog

Catalysts for a Correction

Well my birthday week was good for the domestic markets as most ended up about 3% bringing us back to near the even line for the year. So far in 2015, we have had the type of volatility that I foreshadowed back in my October and January letters to clients […]

Fundamental Trends Blog

Super Sunday

As I sit in my Green Bay Packers t-shirt at my keyboard I am still quietly lamenting that I will not be watching my team in the Super Bowl today. There is some consolation, I do like Russell Wilson, I have friends from Boston who will feel good if the […]

Fundamental Trends Blog

Greek Elections

I waited until the Greek elections were in to write this. What we have learned now is that Greece is indeed going to play hardball with the Troika and Germany. There is no telling what this might entail. My bet against the Euro which I described on Scutify in detail […]

Secular Bear Market So Far
Fundamental Trends Blog

Energy

This past week continued the volatility that we have been warning about and following. While Friday ended the week on a postive note, we are not sure how long that can last. As you can see on our webcast, the market remains under pressure despite some up days which are […]

Fundamental Trends Blog

Asymmetry

The markets continue to exhibit volatility that hasn’t been regularly present in a few years. While markets are not as volatile as 2011 yet, the end of QE in the U.S. and economic challenges around the globe signal that the easy to ride Fed reflation is over.  Algorithmically, we see […]

U.S. Stock Indexes
Fundamental Trends Blog

Fundamental Trends for the New Year

Over the past few decades with the rise of a financial media that is always looking for something to say, the flow of information to the public has become more polluted. It has gotten to the point that investment news almost completely ignores politically non-biased economic thought or the fundamental analysis […]