Volatility refuses to rise despite a trade war, impeachment, falling earnings expectations, a Fed in bailout mode and high valuations. What gives?
In this section you will find Fundamental Trends investment ideas, research, model portfolios 401(k) Alerts. Fundamental Trends offers investment ideas in three categories: Stocks, ETFs, Options & 401(k) Asset Allocation.
What truly makes this investment letter different is our approach to buying and selling which is managed for risk differently than most others. We make extensive use of “limit orders” and cash-secured put option selling to scale into positions and secure low costs basis.
With more time freed up from simplifying my business model, I plan to write a “quick thoughts” on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday now. Today, Monday, I am writing one because I have two macro pieces about half done each: We Are Now On The Peak Oil Plateau Climate Change Is Already The Biggest Investment Trend I will release these on back to back Mondays coming up. Macro pieces will be […]
Invesco seems to be doing everything right by getting on the right side of the big trends. Will its acquisitions work out and is it a buy though?
Every Monday we examine one to three swing trades to potentially be initiated this week. We use our combination of fundamental, technical and quantitative analysis to give us an edge on small trades that can net big gains.
Each week we update members with stocks that are ripe to have covered calls sold against their position. We also identify cash-secured put selling opportunities on our favorite stocks.
The oil industry has been getting pummeled for a year now. Many oil stocks are down 50% to 70%. Recency bias is preventing more investors from making a real analysis of the value of these companies. Have no doubt about it, some oil stock prices will never recover. More oil companies will go bankrupt. Mergers, and takeovers without much premium, will remove others from being publicly traded. The majors are […]
We have an opportunity to buy a solid financial stock – NOT in the dangerous banking industry – that pays over a 7% dividend. It is in a growing business and will be entering Europe soon. This is a chance to have a double to triple in total return the next 5 years or so with low risk.
The correction we are seeing is a prelude to what I expect in 2020 as the economy softens and buybacks slowdown. Between now and then, we should see choppiness as smart money fades rallies and the oblivious permabulls buy the dips (perma anything are oblivious). I expect a bit of an “end of QT” rally after Labor Day possibly through January, albeit with more volatility than normal. VXX We nearly […]
Stock market corrections are about the only time to buy high quality companies at a discount. Corrections are also the best time to buy potential ten-baggers on a pullback. We were smart to allocate huge percentages to cash recently, now we need to be smart picking great companies for our portfolios. Below are two lists. The first are very high quality companies with stocks that are approaching rare bargain territory. The second list are companies that have big growth and are potential ten-baggers over the next decade on this pullback.
For those of you active in the chat, you saw that we discussed buying some SPY puts a couple weeks ago and VXX calls on Monday. The SPY puts are up about 50% and the VXX calls have roughly doubled in 4 days. How you manage these depends on how greedy you are.