The correction we are seeing is a prelude to what I expect in 2020 as the economy softens and buybacks slowdown. Between now and then, we should see choppiness as smart money fades rallies and the oblivious permabulls buy the dips (perma anything are oblivious). I expect a bit of an “end of QT” rally after Labor Day possibly through January, albeit with more volatility than normal. VXX We nearly […]
Exchange Traded Funds
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ETFs are a wonderful place to start investing. However, keep it simple when your portfolio is small in order to avoid unnecessary trading costs.
There is an overriding trend in the economy that is long-term. The shift from labor and capital intensive “old economy” companies towards scalable and smart “new economy” companies. While we will always need the “old economy,” many of those stocks will not be good investments due to thin margins.
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With the flow of money out of “old economy” and “grandpa stocks”continuing, using corrections to upgrade our asset allocation is an essential idea. Already, we have raised cash on anticipation of a summer correction. I anticipate that the summer correction will be short and shallow, lasting no more than a few months and probably not correcting more than 10-20%.
With another pause in the ramping up of the trade war, markets were feeling bullish Monday morning. However, that bullishness has been fading as the day went on. Maybe markets realize there was no real trade progress made. Maybe the markets are focused on other things.
(Open to the public to demonstrate the regular notes we put out on our holdings. Here we were buyers of calls on USO the last week of December 2019 and are taking profits now as a form of risk management. The “new” Fundamental Trends is in beta and making adjustments based on member feedback.) They say we should learn from our mistakes. This is one thing that “they” have right. […]
Money flows are observable and somewhat predictable for markets. In December, I discussed how money flow was negatively impacting the stock market. Here is that article: 4 Pieces of Missing Money Crushing Markets In short, outflows from liquidating hedge funds, tax-loss selling, a Fed that had ramped up QT to $50 billion a month, virtually no foreign investment (see China’s 90% plus fall off) and the permanent dribble out of […]