Exchange Traded Funds


Exchange Traded Funds are all the rage among financial planners. The problem for individual investors is that the fees layer up quickly.

A financial advisor might charge about 1% to recommend money managers to clients. The money managers often charge another 1%. This is on top of the ETF fees. The combined 2% in “service” fees is a HUGE barrier to overcome.

Most people can manage an ETF portfolio very efficiently without having to overcome the layers of fees within the financial industry. Our solution is the ETF  Global Trends ETF Strategy which provides our unique analysis of internal ETF holdings and provides us a significant edge.

A Note To Beginning Investors

ETFs are a wonderful place to start investing. However, keep it simple when your portfolio is small in order to avoid unnecessary trading costs.

Stick with investing in the secular long-term growth trends, such as technology, 4th Industrial Revolution, biotech, communications, 5G, IoT, AR, VR and consumer trends.

If you are a beginning investor, there is one fund that is easy to begin with that is on the right side of the long-term trends. Read this ETF File I have published at Seeking Alpha to learn more:

The Only ETF You Need To Start Investing

Quick Thoughts On VXX & QQQ

The correction we are seeing is a prelude to what I expect in 2020 as the economy softens and buybacks slowdown. Between now and then, we should see choppiness as smart money fades rallies and the oblivious permabulls buy the dips (perma anything are oblivious). I expect a bit of an “end of QT” rally after Labor Day possibly through January, albeit with more volatility than normal. VXX We nearly […]

ETFs I Plan To Buy Soon

With the flow of money out of “old economy” and “grandpa stocks”continuing, using corrections to upgrade our asset allocation is an essential idea. Already, we have raised cash on anticipation of a summer correction. I anticipate that the summer correction will be short and shallow, lasting no more than a few months and probably not correcting more than 10-20%.

Taking Profits On USO

(Open to the public to demonstrate the regular notes we put out on our holdings. Here we were buyers of calls on USO the last week of December 2019 and are taking profits now as a form of risk management. The “new” Fundamental Trends is in beta and making adjustments based on member feedback.) They say we should learn from our mistakes. This is one thing that “they” have right. […]

Fade The Market In Early April

Money flows are observable and somewhat predictable for markets. In December, I discussed how money flow was negatively impacting the stock market. Here is that article: 4 Pieces of Missing Money Crushing Markets In short, outflows from liquidating hedge funds, tax-loss selling, a Fed that had ramped up QT to $50 billion a month, virtually no foreign investment (see China’s 90% plus fall off) and the permanent dribble out of […]

Scaling Fixes Imperfection & Game Plan 2019

Summary Scaling into or out of positions when changing asset allocations eliminates the need to be perfect on trades. If you scaled out of equity heavy asset allocation from late July to late September, then scaled back in from late October to late December, you’ll be fine. Panic selling at the end of a correction turns temporary losses into permanent losses. I preach scaling into and out of positions and […]

We Might Have The Low In Oil Tomorrow At The Open

Summary The API reported an inventory build this week, however, last week they had a huge draw. The EIA last week had a small draw and reports at 10:30AM Wednesday. It is very possible that the API numbers are fudged week to week due to when they account, so, we could see EIA with a draw. The Fed will likely be dovish tomorrow and might even surprise with no rate […]

Traders Offer Easy “Go Long” Oil Opportunity

Summary Traders trade, that’s what they do, don’t listen to their stories though. Oil is at the bottom of it’s new range, it’s an easy buy once again. The intermediate bias in oil is bullish and so is the short-term. Buy oil ETFs as futures swing back to backwardation from contango. Traders, from time to time, give us slow handed folks a wonderful opportunity. The traders will beat down or […]

ETF Focus List (Nov 2018)

Summary To protect the integrity of our picks, the focus ETFs will be found in an article within the website each month. These are the highest conviction ETFs to add to asset allocations in November 2018. Look to buy around the 200-day moving averages and when RSI falls below 30. Use the “bottom fishing” prices for second entries on any ETF that violates the 200-day moving average. Scale in using […]

QQQ And You

Summary The PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) which tracks the Nasdaq 100 has returned the best returns among diversified ETFs over multiple time periods. QQQ primarily tracks “new economy” stocks while the S&P 500 ETFs also track old economy stocks. The current decline has reached a first support level and a small position in QQQ for those without can be taken now. This idea is specifically for investors with small positions or […]

First Step Into The KWEB

Summary China is still an undeniably attractive place to have some investment exposure even if they do not always play nice. I have a hard time buying individual stocks because of trust issues. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF appears to be the best ETF for buying into Chinese tech growth. I am buying a starter position in the fund today. Long-term, we need some China exposure. It is one […]

Semiconductor ETFs – Updated Bottom Fishing

Summary Updated “bottom fishing” prices for semiconductor ETFs. Semiconductor ETFs have been market leaders over most time frames, however, have significant bear markets once or twice per decade. I believe there will be a shallow bear market in semiconductor ETFs. Look for a chance to buy the SPDR® S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD). I updated the bottom fishing prices for semiconductor ETFs today.  These have been market leaders for an extended period and […]

Buying XOP and ECA Calls

Summary I am buying XOP & ECA calls across two time frames and at multiple strike prices. I believe that U.S. oil company earnings are going to crush analyst expectations the next two quarters and accelerate again late next year. The Permian bottleneck is going to benefit from 700,000 shades of Gray earlier than expected. I have upped my oil stock allocation to 20-33% depending on the account. I will […]

Hedging Trades For Fall

September and October have historically been months when the stock market sees disruptions. There is no absolute answer on whether or not a stock correction will occur though, only the tendency to happen more often this time of year.  This year, there are four catalysts, which I identified in this article and the Friday webinar below, that could conspire to cause a correction due to a weakening market structure:  {youtube}F5HM0KA5f_A|600|450|1{/youtube} Here are […]

Here’s Why To Be A Stock Seller

Over the past two weeks, I have become a net seller into this weak stock market rally. I talked extensively about it in our last webinar: https://youtu.be/_11AvJl3m_M While I do not believe what is coming is “the big one” as far as market corrections is concerned, I do think it can mimic significantly what happened in February, but for different reasons. For those who would actively try to navigate an uncertain stock market, […]

Oil Is Always Volatile Short-Term, But Is Going Up Medium Term

Summary You must differentiate oil from oil stocks. Oil is extremely volatile in the short-term and even more difficult to trade. Many oil stocks are seeing increasing cash flow, leading to higher shareholder yield, as they realize higher oil sale prices. Oil stocks are a still a screaming buy in my opinion and I think one easy play ETF will double in share price within 2 to 3 years. There […]

It’s Time To Be A Net Stock Seller

Summary Risk assets have very little support – stocks are risk assets. President Trump’s trade policy is high risk and has an unknown ending. While valuations have come in, earnings are clearly peaking, making the CAPE ratio relevant. Indexers and closet indexers will get hit badly in a correction or outright bear market. Use market strength to lighten up allocations to stocks and raise cash levels. The time has finally […]

Quick Thoughts on Oil ETFs

Our trades on the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) and PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO) calls have all round tripped. So has the ETF position on U.S 3x Oil Fund (USOU). As covered in the Oil Is Going To A Brazillion article I don’t think we have a lot of risk in these positions, however, this week might not be fun.

A Levered ETF Trade for the Oil Rally

This column should be read after: Two Weeks Until Oil Begins Rally To $80 It is very rare that I use levered ETFs. The opportunity has to be striking. In most cases I greatly prefer options to levered ETFs due to the expenses related to levered ETFs and other structural issues. Right now however, there is a compelling argument to use a levered oil fund. As you know, I believe […]