Exchange Traded Funds


Exchange Traded Funds are all the rage among financial planners. The problem for individual investors is that the fees layer up quickly.

A financial advisor might charge about 1% to recommend money managers to clients. The money managers often charge another 1%. This is on top of the ETF fees. The combined 2% in “service” fees is a HUGE barrier to overcome.

Most people can manage an ETF portfolio very efficiently without having to overcome the layers of fees within the financial industry. Our solution is the ETF  Global Trends ETF Strategy which provides our unique analysis of internal ETF holdings and provides us a significant edge.

A Note To Beginning Investors

ETFs are a wonderful place to start investing. However, keep it simple when your portfolio is small in order to avoid unnecessary trading costs.

Stick with investing in the secular long-term growth trends, such as technology, 4th Industrial Revolution, biotech, communications, 5G, IoT, AR, VR and consumer trends.

If you are a beginning investor, there is one fund that is easy to begin with that is on the right side of the long-term trends. Read this ETF File I have published at Seeking Alpha to learn more:

The Only ETF You Need To Start Investing

QQQ And You

Summary The PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) which tracks the Nasdaq 100 has returned the best returns among diversified ETFs over multiple time periods. QQQ primarily tracks “new economy” stocks while the S&P 500 ETFs also track old economy stocks. The current decline has reached a first support level and a small position in QQQ for those without can be taken now. This idea is specifically for investors with small positions or […]

First Step Into The KWEB

Summary China is still an undeniably attractive place to have some investment exposure even if they do not always play nice. I have a hard time buying individual stocks because of trust issues. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF appears to be the best ETF for buying into Chinese tech growth. I am buying a starter position in the fund today. Long-term, we need some China exposure. It is one […]

Semiconductor ETFs – Updated Bottom Fishing

Summary Updated “bottom fishing” prices for semiconductor ETFs. Semiconductor ETFs have been market leaders over most time frames, however, have significant bear markets once or twice per decade. I believe there will be a shallow bear market in semiconductor ETFs. Look for a chance to buy the SPDR® S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD). I updated the bottom fishing prices for semiconductor ETFs today.  These have been market leaders for an extended period and […]

Buying XOP and ECA Calls

Summary I am buying XOP & ECA calls across two time frames and at multiple strike prices. I believe that U.S. oil company earnings are going to crush analyst expectations the next two quarters and accelerate again late next year. The Permian bottleneck is going to benefit from 700,000 shades of Gray earlier than expected. I have upped my oil stock allocation to 20-33% depending on the account. I will […]

Hedging Trades For Fall

September and October have historically been months when the stock market sees disruptions. There is no absolute answer on whether or not a stock correction will occur though, only the tendency to happen more often this time of year.  This year, there are four catalysts, which I identified in this article and the Friday webinar below, that could conspire to cause a correction due to a weakening market structure:  {youtube}F5HM0KA5f_A|600|450|1{/youtube} Here are […]

Here’s Why To Be A Stock Seller

Over the past two weeks, I have become a net seller into this weak stock market rally. I talked extensively about it in our last webinar: https://youtu.be/_11AvJl3m_M While I do not believe what is coming is “the big one” as far as market corrections is concerned, I do think it can mimic significantly what happened in February, but for different reasons. For those who would actively try to navigate an uncertain stock market, […]

Oil Is Always Volatile Short-Term, But Is Going Up Medium Term

Summary You must differentiate oil from oil stocks. Oil is extremely volatile in the short-term and even more difficult to trade. Many oil stocks are seeing increasing cash flow, leading to higher shareholder yield, as they realize higher oil sale prices. Oil stocks are a still a screaming buy in my opinion and I think one easy play ETF will double in share price within 2 to 3 years. There […]

It’s Time To Be A Net Stock Seller

Summary Risk assets have very little support – stocks are risk assets. President Trump’s trade policy is high risk and has an unknown ending. While valuations have come in, earnings are clearly peaking, making the CAPE ratio relevant. Indexers and closet indexers will get hit badly in a correction or outright bear market. Use market strength to lighten up allocations to stocks and raise cash levels. The time has finally […]

Quick Thoughts on Oil ETFs

Our trades on the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) and PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO) calls have all round tripped. So has the ETF position on U.S 3x Oil Fund (USOU). As covered in the Oil Is Going To A Brazillion article I don’t think we have a lot of risk in these positions, however, this week might not be fun.

A Levered ETF Trade for the Oil Rally

This column should be read after: Two Weeks Until Oil Begins Rally To $80 It is very rare that I use levered ETFs. The opportunity has to be striking. In most cases I greatly prefer options to levered ETFs due to the expenses related to levered ETFs and other structural issues. Right now however, there is a compelling argument to use a levered oil fund. As you know, I believe […]

Two Weeks Until Oil Begins Rally To $80

For about two years, I have outlined that the OPEC/Russia oil production agreement would be successful in reducing oil inventories. I have further made the case that oil demand would continue to rise in the short term, oil supply could face disruptions and that the price of oil would rise to around $80 per barrel by this summer. We are at the doorstep to $80 now.

Here’s Why Oil is Going Higher Soon

Energy has been a top performer for decades. Over the past few years it has seen a volatile road crashing from highs. Recently oil and gas rallied into late autumn, however, there has been a recent correction. This correction is another, maybe the last, excellent opportunity to buy into the “Last Great Secular Oil Bull Market” in my opinion. 

How Low Can We Go?

This stock market is moving very fast right now. As I discussed a few days ago in “This Correction Could Have Another Leg Down:”  The surge in volatility might be more than just an isolated event, it could be a harbinger of what might come next. Well, what is coming next appears to be an actual real live bear market. We can’t be certain of course, but if Friday ends with […]

ETFs To Buy On A Flash Crash

I was near Albany, NY when the flash crash of August 24, 2015 hit. I was on my way out to a retreat with friends in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. The stock market was down 5.3% the first few days after the open that day.  Buying stocks quickly that day worked for me as I had put 10 good til cancel limit orders in before I left for […]

Quick Thoughts: PowerShares QQQ

In an age where valuations are high, we are carrying some cash, flash crashes are not terribly uncommon and the next flash crash could be a doozy, I thought it made sense to talk about QQQ again. The PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ) is the vehicle I use to build a core asset allocation to a group of market leaders and also what I use for a quick buy if the […]

Buying more XES

The oil markets are getting clobbered again because apparently the U.S. has a lot of cheap and easy to get to oil forever, there’s no reason for a risk premium on oil for say a bigger war in the Middle East and because we’ll all be driving electric cars next year. 

ETFavorites: May Buy Limits

We have a select list of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that we use for our portfolios. I have screened these funds for their internal fundamentals and holdings, as well as, long-term performance metrics. These are the funds that have done the best over time and are positioned to continue doing well in a changing world. These are great tools for building a tactically diversified portfolio or as bolt on holdings […]

Adding to an Oil Levered ETF

The price of oil is soft in the short-term giving us an opportunity. I believe that oil will trend higher beginning this summer and has the potential to go much higher on geopolitical risk in the Middle East in coming years. An extreme oversold condition is being seen across the board and that indicated a reversal soon.

ETFavorites: March Buy Limits

We have a select list of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that we use for our portfolios. I have screened these funds for their internal fundamentals and holdings, as well as, long-term performance metrics. These are the funds that have done the best over time and are positioned to continue doing well in a changing world. These are great tools for building a tactically diversified portfolio or as bolt on holdings […]