Model Portfolios


Fundamental Trends offers model portfolios as guideposts for building your own portfolio. These are not jump in right now portfolios, these are get there over time portfolio strategies. The three guideposts are:

Punch Card Stocks Portfolio – A 20-30 stock model portfolio that has two component parts, growth stocks and equity income stocks. Many people, particularly retirees, will stick to the equity income stocks. We use fundamental, as well as, quantitative data to find companies that offer value and growth characteristics.

Global Trends Tactical ETF Portfolio – A core and tactical model portfolio that is primarily a long-only portfolio. This strategy attempts to consistently overweight the strongest broad sectors and regions of the global economy. In times of extreme overvaluation, we will retreat to cash and treasury holdings.

Half Million Dollar Portfolio – An asset allocation portfolio using ETFs and stocks designed to mimic the risk profile of traditional 80/20 portfolios, i.e. 80% equity and 20% fixed income. This strategy is designed to offer total return of being invested in 100% equities. Our bogey is the S&P 500 for 3-5 year performance, but with 20% less risk.

Model performance should be judged over full market cycles. Any one year, positive or negative, is not an appropriate measuring stick.

Sustainable Growth Investing Model: December 2019

Sustainable Growth Investing uses a base ETF allocation and long-term growth stocks for generating capital appreciation. This strategy can be used for an entire portfolio or as an add-on to a more diversified portfolio, such as, a retirement plan. The Sustainable Growth Investing mission is to beat the S&P 500 stock market index without added risk.

Global Trends ETF Model: December 2019

Global Trends ETF uses tactical asset allocation to find opportunities and manage risk using low cost ETFs. This ETF strategy can be used as a whole portfolio or as the core to build a stock portfolio around.
Our mission with Global Trends ETF is to create a diversified portfolio that uses asset allocation to exploit opportunities and manage risk.

Fade The Market In Early April

Money flows are observable and somewhat predictable for markets. In December, I discussed how money flow was negatively impacting the stock market. Here is that article: 4 Pieces of Missing Money Crushing Markets In short, outflows from liquidating hedge funds, tax-loss selling, a Fed that had ramped up QT to $50 billion a month, virtually no foreign investment (see China’s 90% plus fall off) and the permanent dribble out of […]

Model Portfolios Q4 2017

I am providing two model portfolios for equities in order to give some guidance to portfolio structure. We know that volatility is about 90% dependent on portfolio asset allocation and construction. As a result, we want to have a process that is easy to understand visually for building our asset allocations.