Investing


In this section you will find Fundamental Trends investment ideas, research, model portfolios 401(k) Alerts. Fundamental Trends offers investment ideas in three categories: Stocks, ETFs, Options & 401(k) Asset Allocation.

What truly makes this investment letter different is our approach to buying and selling which is managed for risk differently than most others. We make extensive use of “limit orders” and cash-secured put option selling to scale into positions and secure low costs basis.

Antero is a Gas

One of the things that those who are calling for lower oil just don’t understand is that the fracking industry is just not going to flood the market with oil. That means there won’t be this sudden influx of associated gas – gas that comes with oil production.  How do I know this. I talk to the oil people. While there is still somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 DUC wells […]

Antero is a Gas

One of the things that those who are calling for lower oil just don’t understand is that the fracking industry is just not going to flood the market with oil. That means there won’t be this sudden influx of associated gas – gas that comes with oil production.  How do I know this. I talk to the oil people. While there is still somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 DUC wells […]

SunPower Stock & Option Trades

This is an add-on to yesterday’s article on winners and losers in the solar space from tariffs.  I am a buyer of SunPower (SPWR) stock for an initial position of about 2% of portfolio value. I am a seller of cash-secured puts designed to increase my position to 4%. I am selling the SPWR March $8 puts for about a buck.  I am also starting to buy the SPWR January […]

SunPower Stock & Option Trades

This is an add-on to the article on winners and losers in the solar space from tariffs.  I am a buyer of SunPower (SPWR) stock for an initial position of about 2% of portfolio value. I am a seller of cash-secured puts designed to increase my position to 4%. I am selling the SPWR March $8 puts for about a buck.  I am also starting to buy the SPWR January […]

Winners and Losers From President Trump’s Solar Tariffs

On Monday, President Trump announced tariffs on imported solar panels. Here is a summary from EnergyStage.com: “On January 22nd, 2018, the Trump Administration levied a 30% tariff on solar imports to the United States. The tariff covers both imported solar cells, a key input to manufacturing solar panels, and solar modules, otherwise known as solar panels. According to a fact sheet released by the U.S. Trade Representative, this tariff will last for four years and […]

Risk Managing Volatility Trades

The nature of swing trades is that sometimes things swing against you. That is the case in the government shutdown not staying shut down. Our volatility speculation became a lot more speculative this morning when the Senate voted 81-18 to pass a continuing resolution to end the government shutdown for until February 8th.

Time To Start Expanding Volatility Trade

I have been watching the drama in Washington D.C. over the budget. I have no real idea whether they cut a deal or not tonight, but it seems the Republicans don’t have the Senate nailed down. If they don’t get all but one of the Republican Senators, right now they’re missing at least 3, then there will be a Government shutdown come Monday if there is no deal by then.  […]

Quick Thoughts on Exact Sciences Sell-off Today

Exact Sciences (EXAS), you all should have taken profits on Exact around $60 when I told you to reduce to a normal weight position, is under big pressure today from this study: Liquid Biopsy Shows Promise for Colon Cancer Seeking Alpha put out a note as well: Exact Sciences under pressure on potential CRC blood screening test; shares down 9% Richard Marzouka, one of the few dozen people I follow […]

EXAS tech gaps

Exact Sciences Issues Bonds

Today, Exact Sciences announced it would be issuing $500 million in bonds. Yes, a half billion. Huge news. Here’s why. First, it means the days of dilution are over. That was a huge bear case, that the company would continue diluting. They aren’t anymore.  Second, and almost nobody knows this unless they were at the JP Morgan conference like subscriber and friend “Sailing Away” was, is that an analyst point […]

Quick Thoughts on Intel

Summary Intel has some ‘splainin to do! I don’t think Intel is a short, but it’s damaged goods for a while. If you have a large position at a profit, I would sell most of the position, and not exceed 1% of NAV. Use a pullback to the 200-day moving average to buy back in. Intel has some problems with a security issue. The technical is far above my head, […]

It’s Almost Time To Buy Volatility

Summary Volatility has been remarkably low a long time. The number of days without a 5% correction is close to setting a record. Volatility could return very soon for several reasons. I read a lot so you don’t have to. Sell VXX puts to generate income with your cash and a potential great buy-in price on the long volatility ETF. Volatility has been low for a very long time. I […]

Deep Dive: Micron (MU)

Summary Micron is a leader in DRAM and NAND with an opportunity in solid-state drives (SSDs) as hard drives are replaced. Despite the recent upturn in memory chips, it is still a cyclical business and highly levered companies like Micron can face problems during downturns. Intel, a joint venture partner on the 3D XPoint technology, recently announced plans to spend up to $5.5 billion to make its own memory chips. […]

Deep Dive: Intel (INTC) – part 1

Summary Intel is largest semiconductor company in the world with a dominant position in the declining PC business and servers which continue to grow with cloud. The company has used its fortress balance sheet to improve tech to jump to near or at the lead in AI and automotive offerings. Intel might be on the verge of breaking into mobile phones in a big way in the next few years. […]

Quick Thoughts: PowerShares QQQ

In an age where valuations are high, we are carrying some cash, flash crashes are not terribly uncommon and the next flash crash could be a doozy, I thought it made sense to talk about QQQ again. The PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ) is the vehicle I use to build a core asset allocation to a group of market leaders and also what I use for a quick buy if the […]

3 Dividend-Paying Blue Chips That Could Leave Retirees Blue

The concept of dividend growth investing is a strong and good one for investors. However, the idea of dividends often becomes an emotional one for investors who then ignore declining fundamentals in stocks and rising market risks. The end result is that people who cannot afford to take large losses often suffer life changing financial pain at a time it is hard to overcome to having no earned income. In […]

A Fat Dividend And Cloaked Growth At GameStop

Summary GameStop wrongly is compared to Blockbuster, on the contrary, GameStop took the clue and is doing almost everything right. Technology brands including AT&T, Cricket and Apple, as well as, a thriving high margin collectibles business is diversifying earnings rapidly. GameStop’s balance sheet is strong, and comfortably supports its recently raised 9% dividend yield. The market is overselling GameStop ahead of its November 21st earnings release and Christmas sales period. […]