I am currently listening to the Exact Sciences earnings call. The Anthem news is excellent. Revenue is going to be good. Kevin affirms test volume. Points out focus on controlling costs. Looks like company can be profitable by Q4 2016 or Q1 2017. I am buying the January 2018 $8 calls with a limit price of $2.50 for 1% of the Punch Card Stocks portfolio. Kirk Fundamental Trends http://kirkspano.ebizontech.biz/trades
In this section you will find Fundamental Trends investment ideas, research, model portfolios 401(k) Alerts. Fundamental Trends offers investment ideas in three categories: Stocks, ETFs, Options & 401(k) Asset Allocation.
What truly makes this investment letter different is our approach to buying and selling which is managed for risk differently than most others. We make extensive use of “limit orders” and cash-secured put option selling to scale into positions and secure low costs basis.
I am closing the puts on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF – IWM. Ahead of Janet Yellen, I want to take profits on these puts we bought a month ago. With only a month left of duration, I will be looking to roll into new put positions on any significant technical rally as I see the S&P 500 going into the lower 1600s and continuing to drag small cap stocks […]
While this goes against a long nature of holding what I buy long-term regardless of price action, I spent the past 5 hours reading documents from both companies (yes, I’ve been getting up too early lately). I find it hard to believe that in an industry that is still in a supply and demand imbalance, and that is adding competitors – big ones HP, AAPL and start-ups with great technology […]
Potash Corp is one of the most important agriculture companies on the planet. This sell-off is overdone. I will take the dividend as I wait for continued droughts to push demand for fertilizer and bad financial circumstances restraining competition. I am buying up to 2-4% of NAV. Buy shares of Potash Corporation – POT at market tomorrow around $15.50-16. Kirk Spano Fundamental Trends http://kirkspano.ebizontech.biz
As we can see in my report “The Stealth Bear Market Crashes In” small cap stocks are doing the worst in this market environment. Therefore I am hedging my stock portfolios and using this as a swing trade. The position will be need to be risk managed and likely rolled come late January or late February. I am particularly concerned about the next few weeks in the stock market as […]
These trades are for the Retirement Income Options portfolio, each for approximately 2% of net asset value. These companies represent the risky components of that portfolio. If you are underweight these names in your equity portfolio, but already hold some, I believe you can add as well. In general the story on all five stocks are that the names are extremely oversold based on their inherent risks. I believe the risks […]
I have been revising my lists of stocks the past few months in preparation for expanded trading and modeling in 2016. One of the stocks that is now on my Emerging Leaders list is TerraForm Power (along with a few other Yield Cos). I have added these vehicles because of how they are likely to perform similarly to MLPs back when there was growth in MLPs. As you know, solar […]
Due to the recent OPEC news, I expect further downside in oil and gas stocks temporarily. Given that I am becoming more bearish, I am looking to add some dry powder to my portfolio. While we are down on the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) I am selling half of the position with the express intent of using that money to buy oil and gas stocks in the next […]
Due to the recent OPEC news, I expect further downside in oil and gas stocks temporarily. Given that I am becoming more bearish, I am looking to add some dry powder to my portfolio. Despite Total S.A. showing up as the strongest long-term oil major play outside of U.S. due to its assets, diversification and majority stake in SunPower, I am selling today for a small profit. I am selling […]
As I mentioned a few days back, I am taking my profit now on Intel – INTC. We originally bought Intel for $25.52 on “Bucket Monday” Monday, August 24th the day that opened down over 1000 points on the Dow. Given the extreme nature of that event, we bought 10 stocks that morning. We have now sold some for heady profits. I expect further volatility and expect a bit more […]
We bought Google/Alphabet on “Bucket Monday” at $578/share when we bought ten stocks on the 1000 point down day. While I still love the company, I don’t love it as much as the stock market has the past two days. The company announced what amounted to a 1% buyback of their shares and the stock price is up over 15% on trend followers piling in. I’m not one to chase […]
Exact Sciences seems to be behaving better. While I still expect volatility, with the possible exception of a slow adoption number, there is almost no negative surprises left to hurt us. I want to lever up a bit more on this company given what I know to be true about it, which is that it has a great product that helps achieve the American Cancer Society’s, Medicare’s and everybody else’s […]
It is clear to me in reading USPSTF documents on understanding their ratings that Exact Science’s Cologuard has attained an “A” rating for colon cancer screening. The details are still to be hashed out about what are “certain clinical situations.” As we know, the test is designed for the average risk population which is very large. The asymmetric upside in Exact was and still is that by the end of […]
I am adding to Exact Sciences (EXAS) positions. I am recommending addition at the open today. I am listening to the conference call regarding USPSTF rating as I type. Exact is included in the USPSTF draft ratings in a new category as an “alternative” screening tool to the previously recommended screening tests. Final ratings will be issued late this year or early next year. There is not likely to be […]