The oil industry has been getting pummeled for a year now. Many oil stocks are down 50% to 70%. Recency bias is preventing more investors from making a real analysis of the value of these companies. Have no doubt about it, some oil stock prices will never recover. More oil companies will go bankrupt. Mergers, and takeovers without much premium, will remove others from being publicly traded. The majors are […]
In this section you will find Fundamental Trends investment ideas, research, model portfolios 401(k) Alerts. Fundamental Trends offers investment ideas in three categories: Stocks, ETFs, Options & 401(k) Asset Allocation.
What truly makes this investment letter different is our approach to buying and selling which is managed for risk differently than most others. We make extensive use of “limit orders” and cash-secured put option selling to scale into positions and secure low costs basis.
We have an opportunity to buy a solid financial stock – NOT in the dangerous banking industry – that pays over a 7% dividend. It is in a growing business and will be entering Europe soon. This is a chance to have a double to triple in total return the next 5 years or so with low risk.
The correction we are seeing is a prelude to what I expect in 2020 as the economy softens and buybacks slowdown. Between now and then, we should see choppiness as smart money fades rallies and the oblivious permabulls buy the dips (perma anything are oblivious). I expect a bit of an “end of QT” rally after Labor Day possibly through January, albeit with more volatility than normal. VXX We nearly […]
Stock market corrections are about the only time to buy high quality companies at a discount. Corrections are also the best time to buy potential ten-baggers on a pullback. We were smart to allocate huge percentages to cash recently, now we need to be smart picking great companies for our portfolios. Below are two lists. The first are very high quality companies with stocks that are approaching rare bargain territory. The second list are companies that have big growth and are potential ten-baggers over the next decade on this pullback.
For those of you active in the chat, you saw that we discussed buying some SPY puts a couple weeks ago and VXX calls on Monday. The SPY puts are up about 50% and the VXX calls have roughly doubled in 4 days. How you manage these depends on how greedy you are.
With the VIX extremely low, that virtually always signals at least a couple weeks of volatility coming. Most investors can use this opportunity to raise cash. Traders have another opportunity.
With the flow of money out of “old economy” and “grandpa stocks”continuing, using corrections to upgrade our asset allocation is an essential idea. Already, we have raised cash on anticipation of a summer correction. I anticipate that the summer correction will be short and shallow, lasting no more than a few months and probably not correcting more than 10-20%.
With another pause in the ramping up of the trade war, markets were feeling bullish Monday morning. However, that bullishness has been fading as the day went on. Maybe markets realize there was no real trade progress made. Maybe the markets are focused on other things.
When the stock market is choppy, unless you are a skilled technical trader, your best bet is to set several GTC orders to tune up your portfolio and then, go do something fun or productive. Setting the limit orders at favorable prices eliminates the emotional aspect of trading. All of the orders I am entering have to do with sustainability or the “smart everything world.” That is where the future lies and where most of the leadership lies long-term.
Utilities are priced for perfection and about to enter a heavy capital spend cycle as they build out renewable energy and the smart grid. Buy stocks in companies that utilities will have to spend with. Sustainability does not have to mean higher risk.