Chat Highlights – How to trade a possible short squeeze

Summary

  • We’re still looking for clarity on the Paramount deal.
  • A thought on who should own Spire Global.
  • A cash secured put to sell on Ford.
  • Some quant signs of a short squeeze on Aemetis.

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas, and ask questions. What follows are a few of the conversation threads from this past week and links to some videos and articles. Join us in the chat.

Some thoughts on Paramount Global (PARA)

andyswiss Apr 4

I’m interested to hear opinions about this particular approach via National Amusement, the parent company of Paramount. Many fear the common shareholders might not get premium and even dilution. Is it realistic that Apple or Netflix would react and what It means for WBD. This 30 day exclusive negotiations window seems strange after so much time already passed and an Apollo offer ignored.

Kirk Spano Apr 7

I’m looking for a deal to give some clarity. Assets of PARA are worth $30+ minus debt so $20ish. But that’s now. Is it worth more over time (probably) and will it appreciate more than SPY over rolling time periods (it should, but management mistakes and skimming). Clearly has turned out to not been the easy flip I thought.

SectorC Apr 9

Trying to garner some more detail on the PARA scenario.. I see this quote: “In an interview with TheWrap, Katz estimated that the Apollo deal could result in anywhere from $18 to $21 per share for Paramount shareholders, while Skydance’s deal would be about $11 per share. The estimate accounts for a $3-per-share premium for the voting stock. (National Amusements owns 77.3% of its Class A (voting) common stock and 5.2% of its Class B common stock).”

Who should own Spire Global (SPIR)?

Kirk Spano Apr 5

There’s so little downside in SPIR at this point, I’m not sure why everyone wouldn’t own it.

Trading on Ford (F)

Brian Steege 1964

Anybody have any thoughts on where Ford might be headed on this pullback? I trimmed some of my position but would love to add back. I didn’t get the one dollar puts Kirk suggested. Thoughts from anyone? Much appreciated.

Theresa May Apr 10

Here’s how I see Ford-it’s a weekly chart.

#FordWeeklyChart

If you were still inclined to sell a cash secured put, Kirk Spano’s recent Retirement Income Options article suggested selling the June $12.82 for 85 cents or higher. It’s trading around 80 cents right now.

Kirk Spano Apr 11

Set a gtc and let market vol do the heavy lifting.

Short squeeze coming on Aemetis?

Kirk Spano Apr 11

I am seeing quant signs of a short squeeze on (AMTX). This is on top of news of over $500m of liquidity coming the next year ($200m EB-5 + $200m India IPO + $100m USDA) on top of increasing revs, more ITC, new PTC & LCFS. So, I am starting to buy $7.50 July calls, and rare step of going a bit longer term, buying January $5 & $7.50 calls. You want a clear scaling out strategy to follow along. I’ll post more next week.

#Aemetis

Kirk’s recent webinars

Double Your Retirement Income With Better Companies
Global Trends ETF & 401k Asset Allocation April 2024

Some articles posted in chat

https://investors.rocketlabusa.com/news/news-details/2024/Rocket-Lab-Selected-by-Space-Systems-Command-to-Build-and-Launch-Spacecraft-for-Tactically-Responsive-Space-TacRS-Mission/default.aspx

Space: The $1.8 trillion opportunity for global economic growth

Bloomberg $200 Billion of M&A Wastn’t Enough in US Oil Patch

Aemetis Allocated $10.5 Million IRA Section 48C Tax Credits by DOE and IRS for Biofuels Plant Efficiency Projects

The U.S. Urgently Needs a Bigger Grid. Here’s a Fast Solution.

Unpacking the Boom in U.S. Construction of Manufacturing Facilities

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