Chat Highlights-Keeping You in the Loop

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the chat threads, articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas and ask questions. See you in chat (aka investment group feeds). 

Summary

Our time frame on EVs has most likely expanded to 2027-2030.

Rocket Lab price movement gave us some buying opportunities.

Ford (F) and the EV transition

Bob Lupo Jan 30

I’m worried about the EV market increasing up to expectations because of $$-price constraints, mechanical/battery issues, charging station availability, TSLA/TM capturing most of the EV market, and MAGA’s animosity to any fuel source but oil and any vehicles but ICE-driven.

Kirk Spano Jan 30

trader narratives keeping the price down…for now.

Theresa May Jan 30

But don’t forget about our time frame. The EV picture looks very different 2026-2027. 

But it isn’t too early to buy. The markets will price that inflection point into the price.

Kirk Spano Jan 30

Old King Coal’s kingdom goes green: how Kentucky is investing in renewable energy

what’s going and what’s coming

Ford Edge Now Has an Expiration Date, and It’s Soon

this goes to what I said about the F series. Everything 350 and up will be hybrid at some point, but F-150 will all be Lightning eventually.

Batteries are coming despite changing tech…

SK On Pushes Smart Battery Manufacturing Forward

“Small volume, we can still meet it under the current guidelines, but when it comes to bigger ramp-ups in 2025-2026, 2027, we need a little more time and that’s what we’re asking different government agencies.”

https://www.autonews.com/ces/ford-battery-partner-sk-sees-strong-ev-growth-beyond-2024

Expect Ford Explorer for U.S. in early 2025 following launch in Europe this year.

Ford expects to begin building the electric Explorer in June, second EV by the end of 2024

shutko mark Jan 30

Don’t forget that people still spend on gas cars as well.

Kirk Spano Feb 2

While I have said 2026-7 is the inflection point for EVs, it’s probably the full span of 2027-2030 at this point. Ford just rolled out a new smart Explorer ICE and pushed one of their battery plants back a year. Intel is almost a year behind schedule on a big new plant as well. Not much different than Tesla’s start, but, bigger and not as slow as Tesla. Think of this as creating even more pent up demand and a faster ramp when it starts. So, smush the growth numbers into 4 years instead of 5 years.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/intel-delays-20-billion-ohio-project-citing-slow-chip-market-713bde9e?siteid=yhoof2

Kirk Spano Feb 2

Ford just introduced what is likely the last ICE Explorer. I think it’ll be a big seller. That Ford and GM will converge in market caps is now looking more and more likely to more and more people. That doesn’t mean Ford and GM head to a half trillion dollars (but it might). Rather, it means that TSLA is probably done outperforming for a while (maybe forever). Ford is in a good position with the #1 pick-up and top end SUVs and crossovers and Mustang for consumers, and all the commercial vans, etc. It’s a very good product mix. And, remember, 4IR for other industrial uses and real estate being freed up this decade. Ford could be a favorite for a very long time once it starts to move.

Picking up a little more Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Ricardo I Jan 31

Rocket lab (RKLB) dropped around 12% after hours following their announcement of a notes offering. Any thoughts on how hard it might fall at market open tomorrow?

LesRob Jan 31

We knew that they were going to need additional funds for Neutron Development and possibly additional acquisitions.

Kirk Spano Jan 31

a whopping 1.03% of the stock traded. My thoughts on daily price movements is 99% of the time “traders being traders.” Wait for momentum to break and then buy. Don’t guess when it’ll break, just wait for it to break. Chart technicals say it won’t fall far, but, who knows, traders be traders.

Kirk Spano Jan 31

there’s a reason for the saying: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Don’t ask why a stock is moving a bit on low volume (that’s why I added that column to VSL). Know your companies and know what an opportunity to buy looks like ahead of time. As for (RKLB), we knew there would be dilution. Known information. But, traders being traders act out their traders narrative and move the price on a whopping 1.03% of the shares outstanding trading hands as kids run back and forth on the boat trying to make it rock. Just wait for downward momentum to break and then buy if you want more.

sosjpj2013 Feb 1

seems very buyable to me this morning

Ricardo I Feb 1

Today’s definitely been a good day to buy. Started adding to my position last Feb. and this is the lowest I’d been able to buy since April. Started at 4, loaded up around 3.90. We’ll see what the rest of the week brings.

Kirk Spano Feb 2

Kirk Spano bought some (RKLB) yesterday too.

Links to some articles posted in chat

Blackstone to build 60 football field-sized data centers worth $25 billion

Bloomberg Bryan Allen Makes 14 Billion Offer For All of Paramount Global

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/01/30/four-big-short-traders-on-why-theyre-not-so-short-these-days.html

Rocket Lab Successfully Launches First Electron Mission of Busy 2024 Launch Schedule | Rocket Lab

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Theresa

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