Chat Highlights – Make Money with Asymmetric Price Moves

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas, and ask questions. What follows are a few of the conversation threads from this past week and links to some videos and articles. Join us in the chat.


  • Paramount and Warner Brothers carry deep discount values.
  • The long-term positive surprises in store for Aemetis.
  • Spire Global is making its way higher.

Any actions to take on Paramount (PARA) and Warner Brothers (WBD)?

shutko mark Mar 4

Someone nibble (PARA) or (WBD)?

Theresa May Mar 4

I have about a 1% position in each.

Kirk Spano Mar 5

Both companies are valued at about what their studios are worth. Everything else is free. Library. Streaming. Terrestrial. Both of these companies are deep, deep discount values.

I’m waiting for down momentum to end before buying.

Long-term positive surprises for Aemetis

LesRob Mar 7

About Aemetis (AMTX): I’m very excited with the excellent leadership and accomplishments Eric and teams have achieved and the ability to get things done.

Kirk Spano Mar 7

People are going to crap themselves when they IPO part of India plant and score $50-100m. They’re going to wish they bought sub $5, sub $8, sub $14… I have just a really hard time not seeing AMTX over a billion market, aka $25+, by next year. Sure would like teens this year.

Kirk Spano Mar 7

I think (AMTX) is worth $25 or a billion now. And, given how well India is doing and RNG coming along, that’s actually probably a bit light, especially as debt gets paid with ITC. I think SAF puts the market cap north of $3 billion, maybe up to $5 or $6 billion. If six billion that’s $120-150 depending on if there’s more dilution (which I think there would be).

Carbon capture is the big wild card. If it’s a real thing, well, I don’t even know if $300 is enough. What if a few republicans start to think climate change is real enough to turn down the bribes and luxury free trips, errrr, I mean campaign contributions and catered meetings? If we really have to save the climate, and I think 80-90% of folks will eventually come to that conclusion, then that’s a lot of money thrown at carbon capture and negative CI fuels.

sosjpj2013 Mar 7

I honestly don’t even think you included the carbon capture into that high end estimate. Not trying to focus on the number per se. More so that the company is meeting the milestones that would facilitate those projections. Their debt and willingness to borrow money to grow muddies the water for me. But everything else I’ve read seems to project long term accelerating growth.

Kirk Spano Mar 7

the long-term potential positive surprises for (AMTX) are massive compared to typical short-term financial navigation risks.

of course positive surprises for (AMTX) probably means nobody can live in the desert southwest anymore or flooded Florida

The power of stocks with asymmetric upsides

Hsaraf1987 Mar 7

Anyone has a take on Spire (SPIR) earnings? I am surprised by the drop this morning

Kirk Spano Mar 7

traders being traders. Their narratives are as crappy as their conviction. SPIR is headed much higher now that institutions are buying. I’ll put together a profit taking strategy at some point, but we’re not really that close yet. Q4 probably. Maybe Q1 next year.

I’ve never made over $400k, usually around $150-200k/yr, and have invested only about $400k in 23 years. Whenever the next small cap 2-year rally happens, I’ll cross the 8 figure mark on net worth. People who don’t find 20 stocks with asymmetric upside to invest in over the years are making a monumental money mistake. Literally need to find one great company on average per year to get rich. Sometimes you’ll find 7 or 8 in a year, many times zero. It’s lumpy. But, it happens over and over and over. We all get a lot more at bats than we need so long as we don’t suffer big permanent losses, which for most people is panic selling bottoms.

Replays of Kirk’s webinars this past week

7 Micro Caps That Can Soar On Russell 2000 Inclusion

7 Micro Caps That Can Soar On Russell 2000 Inclusion

Expect A Dip To Buy
Major Markets Weekend Update
The Next Correction Starts March 20th
The Next Correction Starts March 20th

Links to articles posted to the chat this past week

Bloomberg NYCB raises more than 1 billion in equity led by Mnuchin’s firm

Army chooses Palantir to build next-generation targeting system

Demand growth creates new challenges for the power industry | Wood Mackenzie

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