Chat Highlights – Ride your winners

Summary

  • Members discuss managing AST SpaceMobile position, including some option’s trades.
  • Kirk Spano advises riding winners.
  • Theresa May analyzes Albemarle’s chart, suggesting buying ranges and potential for upside in cycle wave.

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas, and ask questions. What follows are a few of the conversation threads from this past week and links to some videos and articles. Join us in the chat.

Ride your winners – managing an AST SpaceMobile position

wolfemp Jun 18

Thoughts on taking some profits on (ASTS)? Reddit and other internet forums are convinced there will be a major announcement of financial support for ASTS at next week’s FirstNet annual Summit Conference. Tea leaves recently – FirstNet available development funds are real, the FirstNet video released last week by ASTS, history of comments coming out of ATT, stock price movement the last week. Also lots of buzz about DOD contracts. All of this could be wrong and could drive a reversal next week. I have a large position with 180+% growth plus sold a fist full of July $12.50, calls which I sold at $1.50, if they got called away at a net of $14 I wouldn’t be unhappy. Shooters last chart I saw was skeptical of anything over $10.50. I go back and forth on this one, clearly its a long term hold for very big potential growth. But I’ve hesitated and missed a couple prior cycles where I could have sold some at significant profit and bought back in later. Those days might be over but we’re still quite a ways from real revenue.

nbabb Jun 17 & 18

I’ve only sold calls on ASTS, 1/4 of my very large position – 25% of my MOSI money. An even mix of 12.50 and 15 dollar calls. We’ve historically portrayed ASTS as a binary bet, i.e. huge winner or crash and burn. At least that was my perception. With their now earning revenue, and the confidence of 2 very significant contracts, I now see it less as a binary bet, they’ve proven the tech works, and more of an execution story. Presumably there’s significant due diligence that goes on with a 100 million dollar investment

Theresa May Jun 18

My ASTS position has grown to represent 12% of my portfolio. Yesterday I sold the August $15.00 covered call for almost $2 on 1/3 of my position.

Brian Steege 1964 Jun 18

According to Fintel, the short interest on ASTS in 23% with just a few days to cover. ASTS is going to bounce around quite a bit i would imagine. I have sold a boatload of OOTM puts in every imaginable configuration and virtually all have expired worthless over the last few weeks. I will be adding shares below $10 if I can with puts or or outright buys. I agree that the investments are solidifying the service. It’s not really a binary scenario like it was at $2.50 a share.

Kirk Spano Jun 19

Ok folks. Ride your winners. When considering a position size, base it on the money invested, not what it has grown to. If you invested 12% and it grew to 25%, sure take about 4-6% off to dramatically reduce your cost basis. But, if you invested 6% and it grew to 25%, like Bitcoin has for a few of you, why sell any if you think it’s a big winner??? Think it through position to position based on the move, the expected move and your actual investment amount.

Taking a look at Albemarle’s Chart

Brian Steege 1964 Jun 20

(ALB) headed downward. I am interested. Theresa May-Don’t know if you are, but wondering if your charting skills had anything to say about it? Seems like it could be headed to the 85 region…

Theresa May Jun 21

Here’s what I see. Looking at Albemarle (ALB), first I scrunch up the monthly chart. Look at how RSI behaves; historically it overshoots to the upside, but not to the downside. So, we might not see an RSI below 30 when price bottoms. Price currently trades in a very attractive demand zone.

#Albemarle_Monthly_Chart

Here’s a weekly chart to which I added Elliott Waves.

#Albemarle_Weekly_Chart

If correct, ALB is current bottoming in wave 3 of a cycle wave. We’d like to catch that one. I see two price ranges to buy: $80-$100 and $49-$65. Elliott Wave shows the bottom of wave 3 at $69. The demand price zone in which price currently trades is a strong one. But the one below is even stronger.

In my opinion, this might be a case of not trying to be too precise in buying this one, if you want to own it. If the wave count is correct, price it is getting ready to start a cycle wave that has lots of upside potential. Personally, I have not nibbled on this one yet and I realize I may miss it. But I have already started scaling into the ETF LIT that holds ALB as its top holding.

If I wanted to own this, I would start scaling in now and plan to either add to it at around $70 (if price gets that low) or at the breakout price.

Kirk’s recent thoughts on the motherload blue chip of lithium: Albemarle Corp:

Articles posted to chat this past week

I’m in Texas to see the future

The solar industrial revolution is the biggest investment opportunity in history

The case for short-term bonds

China’s hydropower generation surges and coal ebbs

author avatar
Theresa

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