Chat Highlights – Scale in at the right time

Summary

  • Discussion on scaling into New York Community Bank and potential impact of reverse stock split.
  • Unity approaching capitulation event, strategy for adding to position, and long-term outlook.
  • Analysis of green initiatives and potential impact of Trump’s return to the White House on energy stocks and policies.

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas, and ask questions. What follows are a few of the conversation threads from this past week and links to some videos and articles. Join us in the chat.

Scaling into New York Community Bank

Janet C June 4

Re the (NYCB) vote for reverse stock split, tomorrow. Does this have any impact? I usually, rarely, vote on anything.

Kirk Spano Jun 5

nope

Janet C Jun 5

I have not purchased as much as I’d like. You usually tell us to add slowly. I was hoping for a lower price to add more!

Kirk Spano Jun 6

NYCB doesn’t have much lower it can go. Maybe a buck or two from the split adjusted 9-10, but that would be very temporary. Sell csp if you want lower possible. But, I wouldn’t wait.

Unity-closing in on capitulation

Kirk Spano Jun 5

Unity (U) is closing in on a capitulation event. Those usually last a few days and then done. I’ll be looking to add around $15 or so on a bottoming. I already own some, so I’ll see cash-secured puts. The August $15 make some sense once I can get about $3 for them. Might have to bump out a month of two.

Remember, it takes time for a business to turn around. This one was more of an evolution than a turn around. That’s better. Good long-term. Question is how to get in and when. I was early, so, waiting to really build out the position for the AR/VR AI driven future.

Here’s Shooter’s chart.

#Unity (U) Weekly Chart

Politicians and green initiatives

wolfemp Jun 10

In your recent “Top Energy Stocks” post you shrugged off the threat that a Trump return to the White House would pose to green initiatives. Like you, I have a very significant piece of (AMTX) and I wish I had your confidence in this area.

Multiple recent articles in New York Magazine, The Washington Post and elsewhere have focused on Trump and Russell Vought a former insider at OMB who is working with the Trump campaign on outlining what has been termed “radical constitutionalism” and “impoundment”, processes in which the President would defy Congress’ approved spending plans and sit on funding for virtually every element of AMTX master plan, Farmers and investors be damned.

Given that AMTX stock has been adrift for a while in spite of good news , it seems like some investors are concerned. Trump is at least neck and neck with Biden. It seems like a real concern that we can do little about other than with our own votes?

Kirk Spano Jun 10

In general, it is not possible for Trump to do anything extreme on domestic policy. He won’t have the votes under any circumstances. And, the corporations don’t want energy policy to change now that it’s loaded with tax breaks, and they know that oil and gas are both running into supply limitations, so it won’t.

Trump wants tax breaks, a platform for Trump Inc, and to bully people. The idea he can radically change anything as a lame duck when he couldn’t when he was President the first time with all of Congress for 2 years borders on impossible and extremely zucking unlikely.

Kirk Spano Jun 11

So, I want to be clear about some things that I think about Trump. To be clear, I think he causes a recession similar to the financial crisis if he wins. He might even cause a massive war due to ineptitude. But, it’s not worth it to me to worry too much though, because, reflexivity means a snap back shortly after. He can’t really permanently break America. He can cause pain and division, but, this is still America and it works out over time.

Overall, I just think it’s silly to think that Trump can get anything more done this time than he got done last time. Like I said, where’s that wall? And, telling multibillion dollar corps to pound sand, it’s not in his vocabulary. He’s not going to undo things corporations want, like tax incentives to add more energy.

Are his people scary? Yeah. Can they be terribly effective? Incredibly unlikely. Not worth worrying about at this point. If they win and I see the landscape at the time, then I’ll adjust. There’s just nothing to do now but hope he loses. But again, even if he wins, there’s just no functional way for him to undo law and I don’t think he has any motivation to get rid of anything that helps corporations anyway – that’s important.

Mostly what I believe about him is that he wants to steal as much as he can while people are looking the other way. He’s the P.T. Barnum of long conmen. Look at all that dumb confusing stuff while I steal from you. Please remember, I worked for a Republican candidate for President and have had two, not one, but two clients who were head of Wisconsin’s Republican Party at one point.

Links to Kirk’s videos

Links to articles posted in the chat

Thales, Spire Global and ESSP to Develop a Space-Based Air Traffic Surveillance Service

Why oil companies are raking in record profits under Joe Biden | CNN Business

AI is poised to drive 160% increase in data center power demand

Scaling CRISPR Cures

World’s 1st In-Flight Study of Commercial Aircraft Using 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel Shows Significant Non-CO2 Emission Reductions – CleanTechnica

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