Chat Highlights-Talking about price targets

Summary

  • Discussion on investing in Bitcoin and associated ETFs, including strategies for adding or swapping positions and potential future price targets.
  • Conversation about Permian Resources and the possibility of a sale, with speculation on the acquisition price and the company’s objective as a financial player.
  • Debate on the significance of the postponement of a meeting by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) regarding LCFS credits.

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas, and ask questions. What follows are a few of the conversation threads from this past week and links to some videos and articles. Join us in the chat.

Investing in Bitcoin and associated ETFs

Kirk Spano Feb 13

this was an answer to a private question that could have been here on chat regarding Bitcoin:

member: Kirk, I have some Bitcoin in (GBTC), should I be adding or swapping to (IBIT)?

me: is your Bitcoin position as big as you want? Could just flip from one to the other. Could build up (IBIT) if you need more and then take profits on (GBTC) later. Is it in IRA or taxable?

member: I have some in roth 401k and traditional 401k, but not a full position yet.

me: so, you’re working and earning. I think you can put a lot of your contributions into bitcoin related holdings until it comfortably sets new highs, say, to about $85k. I have 12% of my personal wealth in Bitcoin at this point, having only invested about 5% of it in Bitcoin. Big gains. I do not intend to take profits until Bitcoin is well into six figures, I think around $300k, but that could adjust higher.

member: what happens to (GBTC) now that ETFs are out.

me: it shrinks a bit because it has higher expenses, but so what, it’s still a spot ETF. Gradually get into (IBIT) as it’s cheaper. See 1st answer.

Permian Resources

Sandy Ferguson Feb 14

I’m wondering at what price (PR) would be acquired. Is a sale part of the (PR) business plan? It really looks like they are just setting up to be a significant player, not a buyout.

wwdorward Feb 14

I think (PR) gets sold somewhere north of $20/sh. It was formed by a group of investment bankers to buy up oil/gas assets at distressed prices and flip them. Their objective is financial. At some point, they cash out. I don’t see them as long-term operators.

Sandy Ferguson Feb 14

That was my understanding, too. I guess they are just being extremely successful at the buying. I didn’t expect them to become a major player.

Kirk Spano Feb 14

well, they’re pretty young guys. If oil prices rise to $90 per barrel model that out. Stock gets well into $30s if not $40s.

If I know that, they do too.

Aemetis (AMTX) and California Air Resources Board-CARB

ewstevens3 Feb 14

CARB has postponed the previously announced LCFS meeting that was scheduled for 3/21/24.

Kirk Spano Feb 15

Doesn’t matter.

crowgeo Feb 15

I have trouble understanding why the CARB ruling doesn’t matter, since the credits were supposed to be a significant source of revenue…

Kirk Spano Feb 15

it doesn’t matter if it is delayed a month or two

crowgeo Feb 15

But…isn’t it delayed to give more time to the opponents of biofuels to build their case? What is the likelihood of them succeeding?

Kirk Spano Feb 15

I would suspect they are trying to figure out how to get the price up to $200 quickly. One way would be to limit to California operations and exclude imported biofuels. McAfee didn’t outright support this, but I do.

no, the opponents??? CARB doesn’t care about the opponents.

CARB has SAID they want the price up at the max $200. They’re trying to figure out how to move it up.

The combination of LCFS, other state carbon incentives and federal tax and renewable fuel mandate programs have made California a leading destination for growing production of renewable diesel and biogas. Renewable diesel last year began to fill more than half of the state’s liquid diesel pool and generated roughly 40pc of all new LCFS credits. Biogas, much of it credited through book-and-claim from out-of-state dairies and attributed to compressed natural gas vehicles, generated another 17pc of all new credits in the third quarter of 2023.

I mentioned this before. California is paying LCFS for imported biofuels. They are going to stop doing that. McAfee wouldn’t endorse the idea for a few reasons, but I think California is looking to both support local biofuels and reduce their costs. They can limit local down the road with time limits for construction, the 2030 gotta be built rule already proposed and then delaying future permits. This is the way. I have spoken.

Links to some articles posted in chat this past week

Ford says it has a ‘Skunk Works’ team trying to make lower-cost EVs | CNN Business

https://www.etf.com/sections/news/spot-bitcoin-etf-flows-hit-86b-amid-crypto-surge

etf.com Morning Exchange If Bitcoin were a U.S. large-cap stock, it would be a top-10 holding in the S&P 500 index.

Palantir Wins Dresner Advisory Services 2023 Technology Innovation Award in Multiple Categories

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