In general, caution is the name of the game. As we’ve been discussing, risk is rising across the globe even as America appears to be an island unto itself.
So, while I believe markets will get weaker over the summer and autumn, that doesn’t mean there can’t be an irrational rally higher, but if there is, it is something to sell into and to short.
The Global Trends ETF portfolio is a tactical portfolio that will generally hold some core positions representing 25-50% of the portfolio most of the time. It is is not a long-only portfolio, rather it is mostly long, most of the time. We only invest in market declines in extreme circumstances using non-levered inverse ETFs. You can certainly overlay some of the option swing trades if you are experienced enough to do so.
If we should see a rally to 2300-2500 on the S&P 500 without there being stimulus or real economic reasons behind the rally, then we would want to move to inverse funds after selling our long funds into strength.