Stocks

Stocks for the Long RunThis is a list of stocks that Fundamental Trends subscribers generally hold for extended periods. On rare occasion we might trade short-term on news or large price swings, however, we are generally on a 3 to 5 year time horizon. People who are looking to trade frequently are genearlly making a mistake. Not only are trying to trade against super computers, hedge funds and investment bankers, they are destined to miss the biggest moves by being "out" when something happens and they wake up to see the news and stock price move too late.

Our core criteria for buying any stock is that we believe it can double in price within five years as a worst case scenario. We believe in building in a "margin of safety" on each purchase.

Most stocks will be released to the public once we are done accumulating a position, generally four to twelve months after initial purchases are made. Often we will use selling cash-secured puts to build a position. Those trades are noted in the Options section. 

Many people will build a 20-30 stock portfolio over a few years and then slowly replace expensive stocks with cheaper stocks. It is a process designed for the patient, thoughtful, forward looking and emotionally controlled. Asset allocation is a seperate issue. Some subscribers buy nothing but stocks, but most blend with an ETF allocation. I recommend blending an ETF portfolio with a stock portfolio. Read the guide you get when you subscribe to learn how to build an asset allocation that is right for you.

Your strongest edge as an investor is the ability to evaluate a company and let the calendar work for you. Not only can you beat the market that way, but you can do other things with your time.

Exact Sciences (EXAS), you all should have taken profits on Exact around $60 when I told you to reduce to a normal weight position, is under big pressure today from this study:

Liquid Biopsy Shows Promise for Colon Cancer

Seeking Alpha put out a note as well:

Exact Sciences under pressure on potential CRC blood screening test; shares down 9%

Richard Marzouka, one of the few dozen people I follow on SA (see my profile to find good people to follow), and I just found out a subscriber, gave me a heads up this morning. Here's my reply in note I sent back to him:

Summary

Eliminating some large cap stocks.

Adding some small and midcap stocks.

Focusing on revenue growth rates and value characteristics.

The concept of dividend growth investing is a strong and good one for investors. However, the idea of dividends often becomes an emotional one for investors who then ignore declining fundamentals in stocks and rising market risks. The end result is that people who cannot afford to take large losses often suffer life changing financial pain at a time it is hard to overcome to having no earned income.

In today's piece I point out several risk factors that retired investors should be concerned with, as well as three stocks with fundamentals that might leave those shares as higher risk than many expect. I'm not fear mongering here, I'm simply suggesting that many people would be well served reevaluating the risk in their portfolios.

Please read the rest at: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4113894-oils-technical-path-80-per-barrel

This month I am introducing a new regular article to help keep our investing tactical and organized. Below, you will find a summary of my short and intermediate term outlook, as well as, a chart of all the stocks that are buys or close to being buys. The chart is complete with buy orders, notes and option trades for managing risk, generating income or leveraging for asymmetric upside gains. 

SunPower (SPWR) is on my "Very Short List" of about 100 stocks that can lead in the next decade. It is now a holding of mine, as the October $7 puts I sold about a month ago were assigned to me on Friday. I am very happy with a net cost a shade under $7 per share. I'd be happy with any price in the $7s and might add more soon.

Read my article on Seeking Alpha to find out why I think SunPower could be a Peter Lynch style 10-bagger stock, i.e. 1000% gainer...