Stocks for the Long RunThis is a list of stocks that Fundamental Trends subscribers generally hold for extended periods. On rare occasion we might trade short-term on news or large price swings, however, we are generally on a 3 to 5 year time horizon. People who are looking to trade frequently are genearlly making a mistake. Not only are trying to trade against super computers, hedge funds and investment bankers, they are destined to miss the biggest moves by being "out" when something happens and they wake up to see the news and stock price move too late.

Our core criteria for buying any stock is that we believe it can double in price within five years as a worst case scenario. We believe in building in a "margin of safety" on each purchase.

Most stocks will be released to the public once we are done accumulating a position, generally four to twelve months after initial purchases are made. Often we will use selling cash-secured puts to build a position. Those trades are noted in the Options section. 

Many people will build a 20-30 stock portfolio over a few years and then slowly replace expensive stocks with cheaper stocks. It is a process designed for the patient, thoughtful, forward looking and emotionally controlled. Asset allocation is a seperate issue. Some subscribers buy nothing but stocks, but most blend with an ETF allocation. I recommend blending an ETF portfolio with a stock portfolio. Read the guide you get when you subscribe to learn how to build an asset allocation that is right for you.

Your strongest edge as an investor is the ability to evaluate a company and let the calendar work for you. Not only can you beat the market that way, but you can do other things with your time.


  • A narrow focus stock list to help us find quality when prices give us an opportunity.
  • Per the 4th Quarter Macro And Market Outlook we are looking to become nearly fully invested temporarily on a market pullback.
  • Selling puts into December and January will be a focus, however, there are will be opportunities to build stock positions on a deeper market dive.
  • Dividends are overvalued, caution is warranted.


All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out. --- Peter Lynch

In real estate it is "location, location, location." In stocks it's quality, quality and asymmetric growth potential. The problem is that in the stock market, basically everybody knows who the quality stocks are. There are certain companies that only go on sale once or twice a decade, usually during correlated market corrections when "everything" falls in price.




noun: oligopoly; plural noun: oligopolies

  1. a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers.

The defining characteristic of oligopolies is that pricing power is concentrated with few suppliers of the good or service. This is the case with the DRAM semiconductor market. 


The next several weeks into earnings season could be rough.

Duration is running out on a few calls.

A big rally is likely in store for year-end.

I am making some subtle moves within portfolios to accumulate a bit more cash, with the intention of reinvesting in the next several weeks.


EXAS is on a huge rally due to Pfizer deal.

The deal is a result of weakness though, not strength.

I still believe EXAS makes it to $100/share in the next few years, but the easy money has been made.

EXAS is at the top of trading range and should not represent more than about 2% of your overall holdings now (and zero is fine).

Exact Sciences (EXAS) recently cut a marketing deal with Pfizer (PFE) for Cologuard. That will greatly improve the market penetration of Exact's highly effective and noninvasive colon cancer test. As a result, short sellers have been covering their positions, driving the stock nearly straight up the past few days.


One of the best ways to get an understanding of a company is by learning its industry.

In this example, we see how companies in the Permian are gearing up for higher production by summer 2019 as more pipelines come online.

Some journals are cheap, some are expensive, take the free trials, but be diligent about canceling to conserve expenses.

Diamondback Energy is covered in this natural gas journal. I apply the information to one of our holdings, Occidental Petroleum.

Best advice I ever got

Jim Rogers: Read everything

Jim Rogers: Read everything

Best advice: Gates on Gates

Age: 66 - Investor and commodities guru: The best advice I ever got was on an airplane. It was in my early days on Wall Street. I was flying to Chicago, and I sat next to an older guy. Anyway, I remember him as being an old guy, which means he may have been 40. He told me to read everything. If you get interested in a company and you read the annual report, he said, you will have done more than 98% of the people on Wall Street. And if you read the footnotes in the annual report you will have done more than 100% of the people on Wall Street. I realized right away that if I just literally read a company's annual report and the notes -- or better yet, two or three years of reports -- that I would know much more than others. Professional investors used to sort of be dazzled. Everyone seemed to think I was smart. I later realized that I had to do more than just that. I learned that I had to read the annual reports of those I am investing in and their competitors' annual reports, the trade journals, and everything that I could get my hands on. But I realized that most people don't bother even doing the basic homework. And if I did even more, I'd be so far ahead that I'd probably be able to find successful investments.--Interview by Brian O'Keefe