Major Markets ETF Risk On / Risk Off For December

Scott “Shooter” Henderson’s Elliott Wave and proprietary technical analysis of Major Markets. Each month Shooter covers ETFs for the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 and Bitcoin. He also covers one sector of interest.

See Shooter’s Elliott Wave Primers before getting started.

Major Markets Risk On / Risk Off

A view of the big indexes that give us a clue as to whether the stock market is more risk on or risk off.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Monthly Chart Risk On!

  • SPY is currently in Cycle Wave 3, which should end at about $494 +/-.
  • SPY is also in Wave 3 of a Super Cycle Wave that’s off the charts at about $785 +/-.
  • Your stop is now the breakout trigger. See the STOP rules in SHOOTER’S ELLIOTT WAVE USERS GUIDE.

Invesco QQQ (QQQ) Monthly Chart Risk On!

  • QQQ is currently in Cycle Wave 3, which should end at about $476.
  • QQQ is also in a Wave 3 of a Super Cycle Wave that’s off the charts at about $650.
  • Your stop is now the breakout trigger. See the STOP rules in SHOOTER’S ELLIOTT WAVE USERS GUIDE.

iShares Russell 200 (IWM)

  • IWM is currently in the Primary Wave ABC pattern in Wave B, which should end at about $213.
  • IWM is also in Wave C of a Primary Wave ABC pattern, which is also ending around $213.
  • Your stop is close below 50-day. See the STOP rules in SHOOTER’S ELLIOTT WAVE USERS GUIDE.

iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF (TLT) Monthly Chart Risk Off!

  • TLT has flipped bullish so buy any dip to $80.
  • TLT is in a Cycle Wave 3 that is off the charts, which implies the Fed is going to print a heck of lot.
  • Your stop is a close above $97. See the STOP rules in SHOOTER’S ELLIOTT WAVE USERS GUIDE.

DX Monthly Chart Neutral to Risk On Equities!

  • @DX is currently in a bearish Primary Wave 3 that should end at about $101.
  • @DX is also in Wave 3 of a Cycle Wave 3 that’s off the charts at about $84.
  • Your stop is close above $104. See the STOP rules in SHOOTER’S ELLIOTT WAVE USERS GUIDE.

Bitcoin US Dollar (XBTUSD)

  • Bitcoin is currently in Primary Wave 3 that should end at about $46,431.
  • Bitcoin is also in Wave C of a Cycle ABC pattern with an equality of about $115,00.
  • Your stop is close below $37,000. See the STOP rules in SHOOTER’S ELLIOTT WAVE USERS GUIDE.

Sector Focus

This month we are focused on clean energy as it is in a bottoming process after a nearly 2-year bear market. This is a major secular trend we want to find exposure to. 

iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN)

  • ICLN looks like it has put in a Primary Wave C and is about to start an uptrend.
  • Stay tuned for next month’s outlook; we should have more detail about the next leg then.

First Trust Green Energy Index (QCLN)

  • QCLN looks like it has put in a Primary Wave C and is about to start an uptrend.
  • Trend support is a better spot, so plan to scale in.

Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy (PBW)

  • PBW looks like it has put in a Primary Wave C and is about to start an uptrend.
  • PBW looks like the 3 drive is an overshoot at trend support.
  • If close below $17 look out it will start a next leg lower.

Invesco Solar ETF (TAN)

  • TAN looks like it has put in a Primary Wave C and is about to start an uptrend.
  • Trend support is a better spot, around $22.50 so plan to scale in if we get there.

Risk Disclosures

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