Major Markets Elliott Waves July 2024

Shooter May 31, 2024

Major Markets provides intermediate-term technical analysis of market breadth from a Elliott Wave perspective. I’ve found Elliott Wave analysis as an excellent tool to effectively manage your investment position. Consider adding or buying during primary wave setups on new waves 3 and 5 (uptrends), while reducing exposure during waves 2 and 4 (downtrends).

Elliott Wave is not perfect, nor is the operator, nor is my Primary Wave setup. However, from a targeting perspective, I have found it to be an excellent tool. Even when I miss, I learn a lot and can adjust. I encourage you to think that way. Think in probabilities, not certainties. And remember, mind your asset allocation by scaling in a piece at a time.

Please read my Elliott Wave And Technical Analysis Primers.

Traders Narratives

We are seeing signs that consumers are running out of steam. For example, WTI crude futures dropped 0.2% to $81.54 per barrel on Friday due to weak U.S. fuel demand and profit-taking. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index stayed flat in May, raising hopes for rate cuts in September. Rising U.S. crude and gasoline inventories also caused concern about demand. Oil prices ended a two-week streak of gains, down 0.2% for the week, but they rose 6% in June and over 13% in the first half of 2024. Prices are being supported by tight supply, not strong demand.

U.S. stocks closed lower on the last trading day of June, reacting to various economic reports. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% after reaching 5,500, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% after hitting 19,980, and the Dow Jones slipped 41 points. Data showed the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was steady in May, suggesting a possible rate cut this year. Michigan consumer sentiment was revised higher, and inflation expectations were lower. Communication services led the decline, with Alphabet down 1.7%, Meta 2.9%, Netflix 1.4%, and Walt Disney 2.8%. Energy and real estate stocks had small gains. Most major tech stocks closed in the red, including Nvidia (-0.3%) and Amazon (-2.3%). For June, the S&P rose 2.9%, the Dow 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 4.9%. In the first half of 2024, the S&P gained 15.1%, the Nasdaq 20%, and the Dow 3.7%.

Looking into July, I’m maintaining my NEUTRAL bias. I expect a rotation to continue resulting in more flat or slightly lower indices by the end of August. However, the fear of missing out (FOMO) continues to drive the market, with only a few pauses along the way. So, there is no reason that can not just continue.

iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF (TLT)

  • TLT scans imply that we are just completing a Cycle Wave 2.
  • Yet, we are still seeing some price rejection and close on the low side of the weekly candle.
  • The longer we reject higher prices the higher the odds are we get one more divergent lower low in price for a three-drive pattern around $70 to $80.
  • I’d sell September $85 cash-secured puts and plan on selling some $80 cash-secured puts if we get down that far.
#iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF (TLT) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart

US Dollar Index (@DX)

  • The US Dollar (via @DX) has just completed a Primary Wave 2 in what appears to be a double top.
  • The count suggests we will head lower first and establish a Primary Wave 3 around $96.
  • In this case the flat is holding prices on the high side of the range, so we could head higher.
  • I think the most likely outcome is that we stay in the $107 to $95 range for most of 2024.
  • I’d sell the dollar here on any rips to $106.
#US Dollar Index (@DX) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


  • The S&P 500 is getting toppy! MotiveWave is indecisive here counts have flipped all week.
  • This indicates that we are likely to persist in our upward trajectory with Primary Wave 5 while our target has been raised to around $558.
  • Nevertheless, we stand at a pivotal juncture (divergence is building) as there remains the possibility of retracing approximately 50% of the length between our Cycle 2 to 3 (105/2 = 52.5). Such a move wouldn’t necessarily signify any significant issues.
  • Given the circumstances, the only action I would contemplate is selling some September $450 cash-secured puts if there’s a dip back towards $493.
#SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart

PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ)

  • The Nasdaq count has cleaned up and reflects a new deeper Primary Wave 4. That implies we get a retrace of around $30 in the next few weeks.
  • However, with AAPL, META, NVDA, MSFT showing strength we need that to change.
  • According to the count, Primary Wave 3 maybe in or ready to conclude around $490.
  • Considering the situation, the only action I would contemplate is selling some September $400 cash-secured puts if there’s a dip back towards $425.
#PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart

iShares Russell 200 ETF (IWM)

  • The Russell continues to consolidate within the range of $240 and $160.
  • My bias, supported by the count, indicates that we are likely to head towards the lower end of the range to test the lows.
  • The count suggests that our Wave 3 will likely reach around $176 before experiencing a brief bounce.
  • Subsequently, we might see further downward movement. However, if the White House offers some form of lending rescue to address the rolling over of commercial debt, there could be a potential breakout. There have been some discussions about such a possibility.
#iShares Russell 200 ETF (IWM) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart

iShares Bitcoin Trust iShares (IBIT)

  • IBIT continues to consolidate within the range of $42 and $32. In more of flat now than a flag.
  • Based on my analysis, a deeper retracement to approximately $29.72 has a great greater chance of occurring now.
  • My bias is towards completing the formation of the large flag pattern and subsequent breakout. However, there remains the possibility of a deeper retracement.
  • Regardless of the scenario, this is unlikely to diminish the potential of our Intermediate Wave 3, which is projected to reach around $62.
  • IBIT remains an accumulation opportunity, and one may consider selling Cash Secured Puts as soon as they become available.
#iShares Bitcoin Trust iShares (IBIT) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart

Risk Disclosure & Performance Disclaimer Statement | Fundamental Trends

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