Shooter’s Major Markets ETF Risk On / Risk Off Report

Scott “Shooter” Henderson’s Elliot Wave and proprietary technical analysis of Major Markets. Includes equity ETFs: SPY, QQQ, and treasuries through TLT. Use this analysis as a general market guide and for trading the major market ETFs.

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Risk On / Risk Off Index Notes

A view of the big indexes that give us a clue as to whether the stock market is more risk on or risk off.




SPY Risk On!

Last week we had three 80% up days in a row (W/T/F). We also now have the exact same condition that we had heading into March 18, 2020. A 9/13 Demark Indicator and three 80% up days in a row? We also experienced that on a total of five other occasions, and we continued to rally. So, that $430 is viable and consistent with both the Elliott Wave count and the RSI structure here. Somehow, I’m not a believer! The count is still projecting some additional downside. If we do rally from up here, we are going to get a huge correction when we do top.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Monthly Wave Count (updated 05/13/2022)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Weekly Wave Count (updated 05/30/2022)

QQQ Risk On!

The Nasdaq appears to responding to the change in yields. Last weeks was the second week in row Mortgage rates declined. Its still a broken count because it did not file the lower bound at $271.05 so I won’t be surprised if its shallow to the upside as well or it over shoots it. Elliott Wave always finds equality sooner or later. The question here is when and where?

Invesco QQQ Trust Monthly Count Chart (updated 05/13/2022)
Invesco QQQ Trust Weekly Count Chart (updated 05/30/2022)

TLT Risk On!

The count has switched to Primary Wave Setup Long and has put in a 90 minute trigger. Theoretically, it measures to $126 for intermediate wave one. My only qualm is that RSI confirmed! It’s not glaring but it’s there, which implies at least one more low. This is also the reason the Nasdaq rallied!

iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF Monthly Wave Count (updated 05/13/2022)
iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF Weekly Wave Count (updated 05/30/2022)

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