Shooter’s Swing Trading Notes

A weekly piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering a few Conviction Trades, Primary Wave Set-ups, Next Entry Longs, and any Continuation Plays. Shooter’s work is founded in Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators.

We focus on primarily long trades using the VSL list of stocks and a handful of crypto assets. Short trades are generally used to hedge the long portion of our portfolios, not for outright speculation.

Make sure to adhere to a rules based approach to trading using technical indicators. And, we highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.

Follow along in chat if you are going to swing trade a portion of your account. We recommend starting with trading 5% or less of your total portfolio and no more than 20% even as you gain experience. We also suggest that you manage your risk. So, please spend a minute and review our Risk Disclosures so you can gauge your own risk. After all, you are your own Captain!

USER GUIDE

ELLIOTT WAVE BASICS

BASIC RETRACEMENT & PATTERNS

My2Cents

The Fed, possible Ukraine ceasefire oh my!!! Inflations and China’s alignment with Russian is really weighting now. Even, high flyers on commodity deficiencies pulled back…I have a clear bias to down side. Yet, some technical indicate we could bounce. Fed could get a bounce if they don’t raise. While nearly every attempt at ramping indices gets rejected.

Summary

Notes change summary; Pulled SPPP, PALL, on further weakness. DISCA closed below the 2 wave so it was pulled. Will look after this weeks close. Pulled FCX on Nationalization vote. BRK.B target lowered $334.47, note the retrace depth after that. I like Apple to $148 Sunday but after Foxconn’s news Monday we probably missed it. We will see! However, any ramp is probably sellable. I only kept back-tested primary wave degree set-ups or higher going into FOMC. The highest risk reward set-up over the longer term. I would not blame you if you wait until after the Fed.

Stock Flows

ETF Flows

Continue to scale in on all entries!

“Next Entry Window Long label” or “Set-up Long”.

Sell off Guide:

Pullback: -5-10%. 1 month w/equal recovery time

Correction: -10-20%. 4 months w/equal recovery (Nasdaq is at 14% from the ATH)

Crash: -20-50%. 11-23 months, up to 5 yrs recovery

Shooter’s Trade Ideas:

Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, cryptos and short ideas (which are never from the VSL which is a long-only list).

Breakout Candidates:

Stay tuned I’m still looking!

Primary Wave Set-ups

SQ Primary Wave Set-up with a nice back-test. Measures to $181 from here. Should not close below that $82.72 now or it would negate this count.

Square Inc

SPWR Primary Wave Set-up with 90 Min and Daily trigger…Buy any dip to $18 or just cost average in from here…I’d put a stop at $17.25.

EWZ Primary Wave Set-up with nice back-test now. Measures to $39.77 then we back-test to around $37.75ish and then head toward $47 into 2023. Will also benefit from Russian sanction and boycotts.

iShs MSCI Brazil Capped ETF

Next Entry Window Long / Continuation Plays

NTR I’d be raising my stop here to $94.99…it will come off quick off those highs.

BRK.B Target Lowered to $334.47 waning a bit on market weakness. I’d be trimming into any strength here. That retrace is close! I’d tighten up my stop $329.00…

SEDG Next Entry Long is $264.78. Stop is kind of deep!!! Maybe trim 1/2 (or more) and wait and see what the fed brings.

SolarEdge Tech Inc.

VALE Next Entry Long $17.47. Needs to hold the $16.13 breakout otherwise counts says we just grind up into 2023 to around $27.85…got my back-test looks good to add. Could have a huge breakout!

VALE S.A.

Earnings:

I like runs into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases when a count supports a thesis I will plan to role a % of gains (5-25%) into the next month calls. So when, I do take something into earnings its usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind count history, sentiment, and earning’s history ranges play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see earnings calendar for the week beginning Mar 14th here.

Next Entry Window Short / Trims

Charts Posted in Chat

AAPL

AMZN

ASTS

DISCA

DOCU

F

GLD

HYG

MSFT

PYPL

RIVN

SOL/USD

SPIR

Risk Disclosures & Performance Disclaimer

Follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes