A weekly piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering a few Conviction Trades, Primary Wave Set-ups, Next Entry Longs, and any Continuation Plays. Shooter’s work is founded in Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators.
We focus on Plug & Play stocks & ETFs, but will swing trade various other stocks, ETFs and crypto assets. Short trades are generally used to hedge the long portion of our portfolios, rarely for outright speculation. We do not short anything on our VSL as those are long-only assets.
Adhere to a rules-based, risk-managed approach to trading using technical indicators. We highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.
Follow along in chat if you are going to swing trade a portion of your account. We recommend starting with trading 5% or less of your total portfolio and no more than 20% even as you gain experience. Take the time to read Using Shooter’s Swing Trading Notes. After all, you are your own Captain!
Another constructive week. As the Nasdaq and S&P push against resistance, I suspect we may see a few red days. That said, run through your stops and make sure you’re adhering to your stop policy and everything is set accordingly. Like I said in my Risk On Risk Off news letter. I think we run into the Fed meeting unless we get a catalyst. I’m holding my VXX $30 calls and I’m still hold May $325 puts in QQQ’s.
Continue to scale in on all entries!
“Next Entry Window Long label” or “Set-up Long”.
Shooter’s Trade Ideas:
Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, cryptos and short ideas (which are never from the VSL which is a long-only list).
Primary Wave Set-ups
MU Primary Wave Set-up with a 90 Minute Trigger. Next Entry: Long is now $74.06, so correspondingly, you can start adding on any dip. Remember, there is always a herd of commercials that buy Micron Dips. It measures back to the top of the range, at around $96.
PLTR A Primary Wave Set-up with Daily Trigger (1/2 size) measure to $23.19 for a Intermediate Wave One. Decent back, maybe $14.67, which will become our Next Entry Long. The stop is a close below the Primary Wave Set-up.
SONO took out my stop! But it is not dead. Just extend one deviation lower. Primary Wave Set-up with a 90-Minute Trigger. Next Entry: Long is now $26.25. It measures up to the top of the range at around $36.58.
U Primary Wave Set-up with a daily trigger measure to $105.38 now while the Next Entry long should still come in around $94.07. However, the low may be in on this one.
SQ Primary Wave Set-up with a Daily Trigger now! It broke out so a full position size. It measures up to $172.37 now. Changed the stop is close below $109.62. I gave it a bit more room…
SPWR Primary Wave Set-up… Weekly Trigger Now! Next Entry Long is now $17.50. It measures to $34.96. Stop is close below $14.60…
EWZ Primary Wave Set-up. Weekly Trigger! Next target is $40.53. The back-test is still a little cloudy (there is not one). So, add on now or at the breakout. It sure looks like Brazil has become a secular trend. Stop is $36.81.
BHP Next Stop $79.90… Next Entry Long should come in around $72.56… Stop is then $66.78.
Next Entry Window Long / Continuation Plays
MP Were out! Next Entry Long is now $53.14 before we print that $62.30… Stop would then be a a close below $48.10
NTR Target raised again, next stop $113.21. Technically, we should get a 50% retrace of the entire impulse wave. However, with global shortages, we could get the first golden box and then leg up. I’d love a back-test to 78.6% and then not close below it. This is a perfect example of how rolling a % of gain into dated calls works. This was a Primary Wave Set-up (so we knew how high it could go), then it became a breakout candidate from $77.18 (we knew what the measured move was). If you were conservative and bought the April $80 calls and were conservative again and rolled 25% of your gain into the Jan 2023 $90 calls, you would have 4 bags here and we still have $9 bucks left to run. This is a great example of how well a Primary Wave Setup can work. This is also why everyone needs to take my Mini BootCamp. You need to understand how to manage these trades.
BRK.B Target raised again to $371.24. Next Entry Long is a little clearer at $347.70. Stop is now $327.92
SEDG I’d cover it at $362 and buy it back on the retrace. I’d keep a tight stop because it has that look like it wants to roll over now. So, my stop would be $317.98.
VALE is a breakout candidate here. Now, I did not post the Super Cycle look for you to chase. Trade the levels! Were Swinging the Primary Wave at $27.85. However, in this symbol, I would not be opposed to rolling a percentage of your gain out in time into just out of the money calls in Jan 2024 calls to capture the potential upside of this. However, with that much cap on your risk, don’t sell. Max 25% of the gain on any trade. I wanted you to have a perspective of what the potential upside of this symbol could have if that cycle wave manifests as an expectation.
I like runs into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases when a count supports a thesis I will plan to role a % of gains (5-25%) into the next month calls. So when, I do take something into earnings its usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind count history, sentiment, and earning’s history ranges play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see earnings calendar for the week beginning April 4th here.
Next Entry Window Short / Trims
Charts Posted in Chat
Remember to follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes for added market thoughts.