A weekly piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering a few Conviction Trades, Primary Wave Set-ups, Next Entry Longs, and any Continuation Plays. Shooter’s work is founded in Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators.
We focus on primarily long trades using the VSL list of stocks and a handful of crypto assets. Short trades are generally used to hedge the long portion of our portfolios, not for outright speculation.
Make sure to adhere to a rules based approach to trading using technical indicators. And, we highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.
Follow along in chat if you are going to swing trade a portion of your account. We recommend starting with trading 5% or less of your total portfolio and no more than 20% even as you gain experience. We also suggest that you manage your risk. So, please spend a minute and review our Risk Disclosures so you can gauge your own risk. After all, you are your own Captain!
My2Cents
Trimmed quite a bit again into Fridays, close. Unless, some deal manifests between Ukraine and Russia, my bias is we see a 5% to 10% correction from here. I think WTI is one of the safest places here because of the believed disruption a war will cause. Hence, my 2x added Friday. Gold should shine, hence my entry Friday in GLD (It is the closest correlation to Spot). Then, the SQQQ $50 calls were also a play on the same down draft. Nasdaq was the weak sister most of the week, and the internals on the fangs all had some type of negative Alternate count. I like the SPY for a deeper drawdown after this weekends review. This week’s mantra! “Trade your levels”, take partials and let your winners run.
Summary
Pulled MSFT, HPQ, VICI, CCI, and STAG on additional downside risk. Trim updates on WMB now measures to $32.28, VAL measures to $18.61, FCX NEXT ENTRY LONG reiterated $42.23, AMT NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $223.75, BHP NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $67.69, NTR NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $74.93.
Continue to scale in on all entries!
“Next Entry Window Long label” or “Set-up Long”.
Sell off Guide:
Pullback: -5-10%. 1 month w/equal recovery time
Correction: -10-20%. 4 months w/equal recovery (Nasdaq is at 14% from the ATH)
Crash: -20-50%. 11-23 months, up to 5 yrs recovery
Shooter’s Trade Ideas
Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, cryptos and short ideas (which are never from the VSL which is a long-only list).
Ukraine Hedge:
USO I’ve got a target of $70.12 now. I’d sell Mar & June $60 puts here and use them to fund $67 & $68 calls in Mar. Or just buy those calls. Could also buy just outside the money less gain less risk. Just realize you need to watch this. We get a deal, it will flush so keep good stops that lock in any gains.
Breakout Candidates:
BHP (Earnings unknown) Breakout Candidate: Measures to $79, then $94 and will put in a Cycle Wave III in late 2023. Stop is a close below $59.00. This week should give us an entry.
BRK.B (Earnings unknown) Breakout Candidate: Measures $331.46, then $334.47. I’d be trimming into that $334.00. My Stop would be $295.08.
NTR (Earnings Feb 16th) Breakout Candidate: NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $74.93. Measures to $80, then $87, then should head toward $100 by Spring of 2023.
Held up very well!
NRG (Earnings Mar 7th) Breakout Candidate: Measure to $53 then $56. Should not close below $37.57.
Still filling out the wedge.
WMB (Earnings Feb 28th)
TRIM good spot to take partials (1/2) at $31 final leg now measures to $32.28.
Primary Wave Set-ups
NIO Primary Wave Set-up, 90 Min trigger. Daily trigger = 1/2 position size which measure to $44.09 on leg one of 5 wave up. Lots of upside on this one.
SEDG (Earnings Feb 15th) Primary Wave Setup. 90 Min trigger, Daily trigger = 1/2 position size which measure to $283.63 on a leg three of 5 wave up. Lots of upside on this one.
TTCF Fading a bit! Primary Wave Setup. 90 Min trigger. Held up well considering…Kind of low float ticker! But, considering market conditions, I would say some relative strength.
Next Entry Window Long / Continuation Plays
LUMN First count failed! NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $9.43. Plan to scan in two additional lots, $8.51 and $7.50. Struggling, but I like it once we get to the bottom.
AMT (Earnings Feb 24th) Well, it took the southern route. NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $223.75. Should not close below the 1st breakout ledge here; otherwise it will probably back-test March 20 lows. Struggling, but I like it once we get to the bottom.
FCX NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $42.33. Measure to $45 and $70 maybe by year end to 1st quarter of 2023. Held up well!
VALE (Earnings Feb 24th) Primary Wave Continuation: Broke out: 1st target is now $18.61. NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $17,37. That said, its been ad aggressive move to the upside and keeps putting shallow retraces. AKA, someone keeps buying any dips.
U (Passed) Still looks like the bottom is in. NETX ENTRY LONG raised a bit to $109.02. Should not close below $89.46 or something else is going on. I left one Entry #2 label so you plan to add to it if that manifests.
Earnings:
I like runs into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases when a count supports a thesis I will plan to role a % of gains (5-25%) into the next month calls. So when, I do take something into earnings its usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind count history, sentiment, and earning’s history ranges play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see this-weeks earning here or next-weeks Earnings here!
Next Entry Window Short / Trims
Charts Posted in Chat
AMGN
AMTX
AY
CLSK
DAPP
F
FLOWUSD
INTC
LCID
LINKUSD
MARA
NFE
NIO
PYPL
T
UL
VXX
XOM
