Shooter’s Swing Trading Notes

A weekly piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering a few Conviction Trades, Primary Wave Set-ups, Next Entry Longs, and any Continuation Plays. Shooter’s work is founded in Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators.

We focus on primarily long trades using the VSL list of stocks and a handful of crypto assets. Short trades are generally used to hedge the long portion of our portfolios, not for outright speculation.

Make sure to adhere to a rules based approach to trading using technical indicators. And, we highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.

Follow along in chat if you are going to swing trade a portion of your account. We recommend starting with trading 5% or less of your total portfolio and no more than 20% even as you gain experience. We also suggest that you manage your risk. So, please spend a minute and review our Risk Disclosures so you can gauge your own risk. After all, you are your own Captain!

USER GUIDE

ELLIOTT WAVE BASICS

BASIC RETRACEMENT & PATTERNS

My2Cents

Should be an interesting week! Clear bias bearish…The plan is to chase QQQ & SPY breakdowns. Add Palladium plays on Russia. Add to the VXX if I even get a shot at that. Stalk USO again! I want a piece of that Oil spike! I also like a few Straddle earnings plays but that all depends on how busy I get (see my comments about last weeks). Added a graph of last Fridays flow leaders. I thought he visual was perfect!

Summary

Pulled LUMN second count failed! Maybe $8.97. NEXT! Pulled AMT sector weakness. U pulled on downside, maybe $94.89…SEDG raised stop $243.28, Adding to 1/4 Position to NIO Friday (Avg. down). I like USO again on Ukraine! Added two Palladium plays on sanctions PALL and SPPP. BHP is good. BRK.B timid but held up well. NTR looks good! NRG, may back-test a minute but it should be shallow (see chart).

Continue to scale in on all entries!

“Next Entry Window Long label” or “Set-up Long”.

Sell off Guide:

Pullback: -5-10%. 1 month w/equal recovery time

Correction: -10-20%. 4 months w/equal recovery (Nasdaq is at 14% from the ATH)

Crash: -20-50%. 11-23 months, up to 5 yrs recovery

Shooter’s Trade Ideas

Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, cryptos and short ideas (which are never from the VSL which is a long-only list).

Ukraine Hedges:

USO Ok with increasing activity at the boarder I’m looking for a reason get back in. Thinking, calls to cap risk here because I find it just as likely to flush on the wrong news. On the other I don’t want to miss an Oil spike to $120 either. I also be putting a piece on in the futures as soon as they open Sunday.

Palladium:

Russia controls 43% of the Global supply of Palladium. Commodity Supplies at Risk! No only are we experiencing supply shortages. Sanctions seem like the perfect storm!

SPPP

Sprott Phys Plat and Pall Tr Weekly Chart

PALL

Aberdeen Physical Palladium Weekly Chart

Breakout Candidates:

GLD Breakout Candidate: Measure to $87 by early June-July. Just keep an eye on it with Ukraine settlement news it will come off on that. AKA, that means close it on positive Ukraine news.

FCX Breakout Candidate: is now $42.33. About $45 measure to $48-$49 by late Mar-June. Could really get going on base metals inflation on Russian sanctions. Low cost producers, those without sanctions will rise.

BHP (Earnings unknown) Breakout Candidate: Measures to $79, then $94 and will put in a Cycle Wave III in late 2023. Stop is a close below $59.00. This week should give us an entry.

BRK.B (Earnings unknown) Breakout Candidate: Measures $331.46, then $334.47. I’d be trimming into that $334.00. My Stop would be $295.08.

Berkshire Hathaway Weekly Chart

NTR (Earnings Passed) Breakout Candidate: NEXT ENTRY LONG is now $74.91. Measures to $80.93. Then should head toward $87 and then $100 by Spring of 2023.

Nutrien Ltd Weekly Chart

NRG (Earnings Mar 7th) Breakout Candidate: [Struggling] Measure to $53 then $56. Should not close below $37.57.

Primary Wave Set-ups

NIO Primary Wave Set-up, 90 Min trigger. Daily trigger = 1/2 position size which measure to $44.09 on leg one of 5 wave up. Lots of upside on this one. Add 1/4 position size Friday. Running 20% trailing now!

SEDG (Earnings Passed) Raised Stop! Primary Wave Setup. 90 Min trigger, Daily trigger = 1/2 position size which measure to $283.63 on a leg three of 5 wave up. Lots of upside on this one.

SolarEdge Tech Inc.

TTCF Primary Wave Setup. 90 Min trigger. If your in it hold…may take a few weeks to get out.

Next Entry Window Long / Continuation Plays

VALE (Earnings Feb 24th) I’d cover into earnings and buy it back. Or put Straddle! Primary Wave still in tact. It sure came off just like it ran. I still like it of that NEXT ENTRY LONG at $16.29 (avg. in after earnings).

Earnings:

I like runs into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases when a count supports a thesis I will plan to role a % of gains (5-25%) into the next month calls. So when, I do take something into earnings its usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind count history, sentiment, and earning’s history ranges play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see this-weeks earning Feb. 21th-25th here, Mar. 7th-11th here, Mar. 14th-18th here.

Last weeks earnings numbers just shattered Straddles history. We could have taken every play last week and we would have had 11 small loses (maybe 30% of risk capital) or flats and 24 wins with 2% gain (above 50% of risk capital) or better. That’s HUGE! The main factor, was the losers’. They got killed with market weakness.

Next Entry Window Short / Trims

Charts Posted in Chat

USO

ARKK

F

INTC

MARA

MSFT

PARA

PLTR

PYPL

SQ

STNE

T

WYNN

Risk Disclosures & Performance Disclaimer

Follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes