Shooter’s Swing Trading Notes

A weekly piece by Scott “Shooter” Henderson covering a few Conviction Trades, Primary Wave Set-ups, Next Entry Longs, and any Continuation Plays. Shooter’s work is founded in Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators.

We focus on primarily long trades using the VSL list of stocks and a handful of crypto assets. Short trades are generally used to hedge the long portion of our portfolios, not for outright speculation.

Make sure to adhere to a rules based approach to trading using technical indicators. And, we highly recommend trailing stops and/or stops at preset technical levels.

Follow along in chat if you are going to swing trade a portion of your account. We recommend starting with trading 5% or less of your total portfolio and no more than 20% even as you gain experience. We also suggest that you manage your risk. So, please spend a minute and review our Risk Disclosures so you can gauge your own risk. After all, you are your own Captain!

USER GUIDE

ELLIOTT WAVE BASICS

BASIC RETRACEMENT & PATTERNS

My2Cents

1st, I’m staying light on the longs until the Swift news settles and other uncertainties like Russian talks (Mon), collapse in Ruble, Biden SOTU address (Tues). Powell’s Testimony (Wed/Thurs) and Feb jobs report (Fri). I’m not 100% sure if there will be any action on Swift, but one of those could take us down 3%. Crypto who usually lead is coming off a bit on Nuke news. ETH should come off to $2,521. Fridays continuation was solid. The problems are the retrace counts that will follow. Maybe selective longs (those in the notes) until SPY hits $440 or sit on the sidelines. The latter is the prudent choice. At a $440 SPY I will be trimming like a Russian race horse. Of note, I don’t get why Oil came off with the Kyiv invasion. It should have been the opposite unless the commercial sold on insider news. Sometimes those manifestations are complex. I’ll be looking for a reason to add back some VXX calls and I want something on in Oil because it does not feel done to me. But, how perfect was my Exit on USO. I’m not exactly sure what will motivate these entries here with negotiations looming and Putin’s threat of nukes. That’s going to get institutions tactile (trimming), by week end.

Summary

Notes change summary; TTCF and NIO were invalidated and subsequently pulled. SPPP and PALL working! FCX is just breaking out! Not too late…NTR is rock solid at maybe $83.70. GLD should not close below $172.71. HOLD…this is an EU gas cut play. Europe always panics’ and buys gold.

Stock Flows

ETF Flows

Continue to scale in on all entries!

“Next Entry Window Long label” or “Set-up Long”.

Sell off Guide:

Pullback: -5-10%. 1 month w/equal recovery time

Correction: -10-20%. 4 months w/equal recovery (Nasdaq is at 14% from the ATH)

Crash: -20-50%. 11-23 months, up to 5 yrs recovery

Companies with Russia & Ukraine Exposure

Philip Morris International Inc (NYSE: PM) about 8% of revenue, PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) about 4.4% of revenue, Mohawk Industries, Inc. (NYSE: MHK), McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) about 4% of revenue, EPAM Systems, Inc. (NYSE: EPAM) about 4% of revenue, Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CCL) PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), Westinghouse Air Brakes Technologies Corporation (NYSE: WAB), Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLZ), Deere & Company (NYSE: DE)

Shooter’s Trade Ideas:

Several of Scott’s conviction swing trading ideas from the VSL & ETFavorites, his own lists, cryptos and short ideas (which are never from the VSL which is a long-only list).

Ukraine Hedges:

Palladium:

Russia controls 43% of the Global supply of Palladium. Commodity Supplies at Risk! No only are we experiencing supply shortages. Sanctions seem like the perfect storm!

SPPP (Working)

Sprott Phys Plat and Pall Tr Weekly Chart

PALL (Working)

Aberdeen Physical Palladium Weekly Chart

Breakout Candidates:

GLD Breakout Candidate: (Still in play) Measure to $87 by early June-July. Just keep an eye on it with a Ukraine settlement it will come off on that. AKA, that means close it on positive Ukraine news.

FCX Breakout In Play: Were off the races!. Next target is $51.87 / Back-test $41.25 / then head to $61.12. Could really get going with base metals inflation on Russian sanctions. Low cost producers, those without sanctions will rise.

BHP (Earnings unknown) Breakout Candidate: Did not like Ukraine! Measures to $79, then $94 and will put in a Cycle Wave III in late 2023. Stop is a close below $59.00. This week should give us an entry.

BRK.B (Earnings unknown) Breakout Candidate: Road out Ukraine like champ! Measures $331.46, then $334.47. I’d be trimming into that $334.00. My Stop would be $295.08.

Berkshire Hathaway Weekly Chart

NTR (Earnings Passed) Breakout In Play: Take partial at $82.11 and Wave 5 comes in at $83.70 so run tight trailing stop there. Should be technical retrace here this grind to 61.8 fib area…$61.98…great spot to add if your long term holder.

Nutrien Ltd Weekly Chart

NRG (Earnings Mar 7th) (STRUGGLING) on market weakness trim 1/2 and wait for it to above the 38.2 Fib again. Measure to $53 then $56. Should not close below $37.57.

Primary Wave Set-ups

SEDG (Earnings Passed) Raised Stop $243.28! Continuation play on a Primary Wave Set-up back-test. Should be good to add 1/4 above $280 here and add above the 38.2 fib $317.74. Measure to $508 by fall or sooner.

SolarEdge Tech Inc.

Next Entry Window Long / Continuation Plays

Earnings:

I like runs into earnings “NOT DURING”. In some cases when a count supports a thesis I will plan to role a % of gains (5-25%) into the next month calls. So when, I do take something into earnings its usually a Straddle or Bull Call Spread. Keep in mind count history, sentiment, and earning’s history ranges play a role in my decision making process. I’m not a FOMO kind of guy like most earnings players. You can see earnings calendar for week Mar 28th here.

Next Entry Window Short / Trims

Charts Posted in Chat

F

ARKK

GLD

MARA

MU

PLTR

SPY

USO

Risk Disclosures & Performance Disclaimer

Follow Shooter on Twitter @swingtradenotes