SOTW: REITs, Comm, Tech, Energy, SPACs.

Summary

  • REITs, miners, industrials.
  • Better and worse pipelines.
  • Trends and Pivots.

Each week I cover stocks that we can consider buying now or soon. We also cover the stocks to trim on profits. Make sure to visit the “Getting Started” section on how to use this piece.

We are focused on riding the trends and finding the pivots of great stocks. We are also looking for companies that can be great. Notice the emphasis on great. Set the bar high to pull your profits upward.

For technical screening and charting, I use TradingView. I’m running my screen for stocks with RSI under 70 and a buy rating on multiple oscillators.

For fundamental screening and factor comparisons, use either Stock Rover or Seeking Alpha (or both). I primarily look for shareholder yield, strong or improving EBIT ratios, strong or improving FCF numbers, and strong or rapidly improving financials.

Here’s what is drawing my attention this week.

Investment Review

Camden Property Trust (CPT) I previously removed from the VSL on growth concerns. Now the stocks is overvalued, overbought and facing a peak in economic factors which are poised to moderate in coming years. 

Fully sell all Camden shares outright. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OYlLO8v9/

Stag Industrial (STAG) I still love the business model, but the stock is setting up for a short-term correction. I am waiting to add new shares until about $34 per share again.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mw5rEjwV/

VICI Properties (VICI) is my favorite REIT for what I see as a long growth run into a transitioning economy with plenty of money moving into Millennial hands, hopefully bad poker hands like the post Moneymaker 2000s. The Venetian acquisition is monumental. I would buy VICI on small corrections this year. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1ImsG2OH/

EPR Properties (EPR) has similar catalysts to VICI and I like it long-term. It’s a little ahead of itself too and we can use corrections or consolidations to add to it. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pWwzTUeh/

Urstadt Biddle (UBA) has made back the rebound money and is not looking to grind. I could buy it on a pullback to around $16.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HLpB76Gv/

Enbridge (ENB) is getting touted by other as a safe dividend play. Don’t believe the hype. The negative secular trend is already in place and loose monetary policy won’t be enough to prevent the inevitable decline of oil and gas volumes. Enbridge’s transition to clean energy is nascent and the future requires massive capex.

In addition, regulation on replacing pipelines that produce critical revenues are running into major roadblocks. Search “Enbridge Line 5.” Further regulation to dramatically reduce pipeline leaks is imminent. It is also well within the realm of likelihood that the company faces significant legal liabilities for environmental damages, and, at a minimum will have to defend those suits.

It’s silly to take the risks associated with most fossil fuel stocks, including this one. Sell all shares of Enbridge.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/slAqJol6/

Invesco (IVZ) and BlackRock (BLK) remain sells that are now removed from the VSL. Short thesis, margins are shrinking while competition is increasing.

AT&T (T) and Discovery (DISCA) remain buys with conviction. AT&T is a leader in 5G and fiber, as well as, enterprise services. Discovery is now a must own streaming and content service.  

Komatsu (OTCPK:KMTUY) is in good position to capitalize on mining for metals and minerals necessary for the electrification of transportation and alternative energy. They are building a new factory and headquarters down the street from me. I am familiar with the operations from local news, as well as, employees at various levels. I like it from middle to lower $20s, but as a capital intensive company, it’s more a trend trade than anything. Right now, it’s not trending and not quite pivoting either. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MKtciJrF/

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is all over the place on Russell 2000 rumors (which might not happen due to share structure) and Reddit attention. Bottom line is that the technology appears to work for space based cellular direct to the phone (nobody else has this yet) and it can be a 10-20x if it does indeed work. High risk, high reward. They are launching a second satellite later this year to further testing on the system and determine what adjustments to make. 

I have a 3% position. If I was new, I’d take a 1% position and sell puts for another 1%. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yQW1rgtg/

Trending

Kinder Morgan (KMI) both Scott (new tech analyst) and I like this one. Same thesis, gas pipeline, CO2 and backdoor on hydrogen. Doesn’t need much capex in the future and if it does, it’s sponsored. Doesn’t carry the risk of pipeline companies that are heavy in liquids (like Enbridge). 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7A1uSaRs/

MP Materials (MP) we in alignment on as well. Buy the dips as the upside is pretty high. Short of a market correction, MP is building a good uptrend and downticks should be met with buying.

I have a 2% position and am selling puts. If I was new, I’d take a 1% position and sell puts for another 1%.  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/H2fgTn0T/

MP

Pivots

Unity (U) seems to have pivoted and is near a confirmed trend upward. At the least, it’s well into a bottoming process. Only the weakening summer Federal Reserve fear market concerns me. I love this asset light 3D development platform business. It is one of the leaders in a rapidly growing market. Clearly a takeover target as well. I rate Unity a buy and think you should have a starter position as soon as possible, i.e. buy the dips. You can also sell cash-secured puts for a second position. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RSiQTSiW/

Barrick Gold (GOLD) another crack at the pot of gold here. Same thesis, gold miners are hugely profitable in the current gold, silver, copper ranges and even better if gold prices rise. I don’t believe there will be much normalization from the Fed and I think crypto hype is winding down. 

I have a 3% position as I had some options put to me last month.  If I was new, I’d take a 1% position and sell puts for another 1%.  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YNJ6szgf/

Ontrack (OTRK) has been consolidating for months and is coming up on earnings. I expect positive announcements and outlook. Between the massive need for better mental health tracking and government contracts, this is a hard company to now own. I have a 2% position and am selling puts.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yVlTLrfV/

Opendoor (OPEN) is a rapidly growing services provider for the real estate market (think Zillow (Z)) but also a revolutionizing home flipping as they buy, rehab and resell on a huge scale. This is one of my favorite new companies out there. Opendoor IPO’d last year, but is beaten up as bas as a SPAC. As real estate normalizes, this company can make a fortune marketing and buying/flipping homes. I have a 1% position and am selling puts.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EeHtACUQ/

Ajax (AJAX) which is merging with Cazoo is a classic pivot waiting to happen. This stock has gotten thrown out with most of the other SPACs regardless of the quality of the deals that are being done. This is baby out with the bath water time. 

I think everyone needs to own this company which is consolidating a fragmented car sales industry in Europe. It’s already a leader in the U.K. and is moving abroad. Compare to Carvana (CVNA). 

AJAX is a buy right now and has been for a while. The day will come when there’s some insider selling that we’ll have to watch out for, but for now, buy the shares and hold for a a few years.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pay3YsIT/

Navsight (NSH) is merging with Spire a SaaS company for space data with an analytics platform. It’s another unloved SPAC. I own at 1% NAV and am selling puts. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XFSgZZkm/

Osprey (SFTW) is merging with Blacksky a SaaS company for space data with an analytics platform. It’s another unloved SPAC. I own at 1% NAV and am selling puts.  

Blacksky Biz

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zDbafK7s/

Disclosure: I am/we are long nsh, OPEN, OTRK, Gold, SFTW, AJAX, OPEN, ASTS.