I am looking to raise cash today as the world just became a lot more uncertain.
Potash represents another profitable trade in the stock, almost 10%. I am very likely to buy it back in the $15s which I think is a near certainty occurs again. Long-term the story is the same. Fertilizer is near or at the bottom of its cycle and fertilizer in the age of climate change is important. However, the cycles are slow moving. It is worth being conservative.
I recently bought two slugs of HP Inc on valuation. I am selling at about a 6% net gain in a couple months. Not hugely sexy, but pretty good. I am likely to buy this company back presuming nothing negative happens to the company. However, as I said on November 4th, I believe that President Trump runs a huge risk of being negative for the economy, even if deficit spending can kick the can down the road. We know corporate CEOs are already pulling back. Until a repatriation deal is cut – if one is cut – corporations are likely to keep pulling back. We should expect at least a mild recession or a “skip straight” recession in 2017.
Therefore, to dial down risk, I am selling POT and HPQ with intention to buy back at some point.