My Futile Forecasts For 2024

Summary

  • Bitcoin is predicted to reach $100,000 with the approval of ETFs and increased adoption by corporate entities.
  • The stock market is unlikely to experience a crash, with valuations expected to expand and the S&P 500 projected to gain over 20%.
  • Small caps are expected to outperform the S&P 500, while emerging markets will have a positive year due to Fed easing.
  • First female vs female Presidential race in U.S. History.
24 Things That Will Absolutely Happen In 2024 (Or Not)

Tis the season for predictions, so here are my top two dozen thoughts on 2024. Formerly a very heavy prose piece under the “Futile Forecast” moniker, I decided to have a bit more fun with it this year.

I will come at this with a bullet point approach and keep it short, but these are topics I will expand on in upcoming articles. Have some fun with it and let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000

  • ETF approvals and inflows.
  • Halving
  • Family Office additions.
  • Continued Emerging Markets adoption.
  • More Bitcoin to corporate balance sheets.
  • FOMO (more even more in 2025).

There Won’t Be A Stock Market Crash

  • Could this be the year for a stock market crash, probably not, loosening liquidity in an election year says no.
  • Valuations will continue to expand back to the 3rd standard deviation range.
SPY Valuations
S&P 500 Valuations (Advisor Perspectives)

The S&P 500 Will Gain Over 20%

The Magnificent 7 Are Still Almost Magnificent

  • The group of Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) deserve a premium valuation.
  • Indexers pump these up as the biggest get the most money from contributions.
  • Full employment means more indexing through 401k plans.
  • Will lead the large cap market, but by a smaller amount than 2023.

Small Caps Will Beat The S&P 500

  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) will edge out the S&P 500 (SPY) (VOO)
  • This will occur as small cap valuations are the most compressed in a decade.
  • Liquidity from a loosening Fed is good for risk assets in general, but best for less efficient markets, like small caps.
  • Expect small cap valuations to catch up with large cap valuations before bad things happen.
  • I own a basket of a dozen small cap stocks.

Emerging Markets Have An Up Year

  • Broadly speaking, Emerging Markets will do well with the dollar drifting (not crashing) downward on Fed easing.
  • The best bets will be younger nations that are either tech savvy or have a strong natural resources position.

The U.S. Economy Has A Soft Landing

  • As I have said since 2022, the U.S. will not fall into a deep recession and in fact will have the soft landing I predicted was likely.

Commercial Real Estate Will Not Cause A Crisis

  • Some are expecting a major crisis in banking due to commercial real estate, despite the commercial real estate subsector being far smaller than residential, that is, the Financial Crisis comparisons are wrong.
  • The Fed will “fix” the commercial real estate driven banking mini-crisis by quickly and sharply lowering the Fed Funds rate to between 3-3.5% in Q2 and Q3.
  • The Fed will also dial back QT and create another special facility akin to 2023 that you should not call QE even though it is.

Inflation Will Moderate To Below 3%

  • The Federal Reserve claims victory on inflation.
  • The real reasons inflation comes down is a lack of supply side shocks and that the demographics driven “slow growth forever economy” is still forever.

Full Employment Continues

  • The Federal Reserve claims victory on full employment.
  • The real reasons we are at full employment is that tens of thousands of Boomers retire every month and we are stingy on immigration.

AI Cures A Disease

  • In what will be a first, but not a last, AI develops a treatment that becomes a cure for some dread disease.
  • This is in addition to beginning to become the right hand Physicians Assistant for doctors around the world.

More People Accept Climate Change Is Real

EVs Surpass 10% Of New Car Sales In U.S.

  • This isn’t a hard one, EV sales were almost at 10% as of December 2023.
  • The “kink in the curve” for EVs is still a couple years away timed to when the next generation of EVs starts being produced at new plants with semiconductors produced at new plants as new mileage requirements become law in 2026.

Big Tech Buys Paramount Global (PARA)

  • Shari Redstone has overtly signaled and started to have talks about selling Paramount Global with Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) being the flirt.
  • Apple (AAPL) with Apple TV and Alphabet (GOOG) with YouTube both have deeper pockets than almost anyone and one or the other ends up with Paramount.

China Will Not Invade Taiwan

  • In fact, a nod by President Biden and a wink by President Xi will nudge China and Taiwan towards a different type of “special relationship” with Taiwan acting as a free trade partner for China to the rest of the world.
    • Read that as legalized avoidance of trade limitations on China by running products through Taiwan.

The Israel-Hamas War Will Not Spill Over

  • The larger powers in the Middle East do not want to see broader war and neither does the U.S. that will be enough to prevent a spill over.
  • Israel will endorse and accept a U.N. Peacekeeping force in Gaza that is backed by the west.

Mexico Gets Its First Female President

  • Claudia Sheinbaum, recent Mayor of Mexico City, an engineering professor and climate researcher will become President of Mexico in a landslide (polls suggest this, so not so prescient).
  • Sheinbaum is the preferred successor to popular retiring President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, aka, AMLO.
  • This is relevant because Mexico is our neighbor and AMLO is choosing to not run again which would be a violation of the nation’s term limits. In other words, the shift is supportive of democracy on our border.

India Will Continue To Ascend Under Prime Minister Modi

  • Despite some of his anti-democratic tendencies, Prime Minister Modi will win in a landslide and continue to transform India into an economic power house.

Putin Will Be Out Of Power

  • Opposition candidate will put up unusually strong showing in election.
  • Ukraine will continue to be a source of frustration.
  • Internal pressure will build to oust him.
  • Putin gets “sick” resulting in a successor.

Ukraine Conflict Winds Down Going Into Winter

  • This might be more a 2025 event, but after Putin gets sickly, Ukraine and Russia work out a deal that allows Ukraine to join the European Union, but not NATO, and gives Russia a 100 year lease on the port of Sevastopol in Crimea.
  • Ukraine takes a neutral posture similar to Switzerland and becomes a facilitator of trade between Russia and the rest of the world.

Donald Trump Will Not Become President

  • Falling support among “big money” Republicans will combine with legal pressures to undermine President Trump’s campaign.
  • He will give up the nomination at the convention and support Nikki Haley for President.

Joe Biden Will Not Continue To Be President

  • After seeing President Trump drop out of the Presidential contest in Milwaukee, President Biden will retire in Chicago.
  • He will throw his support behind Michigan swing state Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
  • Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is nominated at convention and selects New Jersey Senator Cory Booker as her running mate.

The 1st Female Vs Female Presidential Race In U.S. History

  • Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer vs Ambassador Nikki Haley

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer Will Be The Next President

  • Governor Whitmer handily beats Ambassador Haley.
  • The Whitmer/Booker tag team sweeps swing states also leading to Democrats taking very narrow majorities in the House and Senate.
  • Party politics says the Biden replacement would be Gavin Newsom, but somehow they resist that institutional imperative and make a better electoral decision in selecting Senator Booker as the nominee.

Milwaukee Brewers Win The World Series

Okay, roast me, but keep it sort of nice.

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