Bitcoin And Emerging Markets If Dollar Falls

A weekly piece by Shooter (Scott Henderson) covering a few conviction swing trade ideas and his crypto picks. Shooter’s work is based on Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators. Swing trading requires following the RARE group chat feed! If you are going to swing trade, you need to check the chat several times a day to get notifications.

Shooter is not aware of your risk tolerance, financial position, or goals, nor does he know what level of risk you currently have on the table, and he is not a licensed financial adviser. Consequently, none of his comments should be construed to be financial advice. Therefore, take the time to read Using Shooter’s Swing Notes and our risk disclosures before making any trades.

Market Conditions: Uberish…

The week ended on a really positive note. It might be a bit too much (overbought), so there’s a chance we could see things change on Tuesday. Alternatively, if the situation in the Israel War escalates with Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, it might impact us right at the beginning of the week. We’ll find out soon, or we could also see the impact on the stock market when they actually hit the Saudi oil fields.

Revisiting my War investment plan, I’m looking into stocks like LMT (Lockheed Martin), Shale Oil companies, and some big oil names like ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX), and BP plc (BP). Let’s not forget GLD (SPDR Gold Shares).

Market Conditions: Bullish

NFLX nailed it, while TSLA took a dip with slower growth. It might pique my interest around $159. Nevertheless, I’ll still be aggressively scalping it. The DOW is gaining momentum, and the Russell seems inclined to roll over, but examining the sector ETFs reveals a bullish outlook. Speaking of which, XLU got a boost on Friday. I won’t label it a flight to safety, but it’s worth keeping an eye on for potential continuation. Oh, and by the way, we’re currently long on MSFT and META, rocking those Feb $420 calls. I just couldn’t resist! Any got Blue Chews?

Alright, buckle up for this: The FOMC is throwing a financial fiesta on January 30-31, 2024. Picture this – the Fed, in their November and September 2023 rendezvous, decided to keep interest rates chill at 5.25%-5.50%. It’s like they handed the banking sector a spa day and gave the stock market a cup of lukewarm tea. So, strap in your seat belts and let’s see if we get roller coaster ride or rocket launch.

For this Saturday’s major market moves, my focus is on XAR and USO due to the Elliott Wave count. Solid counts help us pinpoint potential pitfalls. Moreover, oil futures are already gaining traction for the next month, and XAR provides exposure to space stocks, making it a win-win. I’m also keeping an eye on stocks like LMT (Lockheed Martin), shale oil companies, and major players like ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX), and BP plc (BP). Let’s not overlook GLD (SPDR Gold Shares). A significant event could propel them forward, much like the anticipated moves for XAR and USO in the event of war escalation, tanker blockades, or attacks on Saudi oilfields.

US Dollar Index (@DX)

  • I cant help but think about ‘Nemo’ Glory; Just keep swimming~
  • No FOMO No FOL until that changes…however the count has flipped again. Mmmm!
  • 104 is still an important number, so we push to that its going to weigh on Indices.

iShs 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ETF (TLT)

  • I kind of want to straddle this right into FOMC. Its in no mans land until we a direction.

Conviction: Long Swing Trade Idea

  • NOW I first spoke about from unusual options activity on January 10th
  • I noted I like cash-secured puts and posted this look in Options Strat: https://optionstrat.com/HmToClsJ4m7S
  • It still has about $40 to run, but this has some huge growth numbers looking forward.
  • If these guys/gals are smart, they will do a 5 for 1 split.

Conviction: Short Swing Trade Idea

Stay tuned!

ETF Tracking New Years Week

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

  • We’ve got a clear 2 drive on the daily.
  • The question is do we extend to maybe $494 first and then correct.
  • Or do we correct now down to about $467?
  • I like covered calls around $505.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)

  • We are basing a bit, may have been done Friday.
  • Huge week with earnings and FOMC.
  • Could flush back to 50% fib and its done nothing wrong.
  • Well we got $429.85 so hopefully you bough back those $385.70. Here’s the look in options start: https://optionstrat.com/TmLBX4RWkOjO

iShs MSCI Emerg Mkt ETF (EEM)

  • It still early, I like cash secured puts on this one then roll some of the gains into common shares.
  • Once we get back above the 50 with a back-test I’ll like calls just above price on a monthly strategy.

S&P Sel Finl Spdr Fd (XLF)

  • The Intermediate wave 3 should push to about $39.97 then flush to $37.94 just about where we are.
  • So, I’d chase Mar $39 and June $40 calls and if you want to be conservative just sell some cash secured puts.

S&P Sel Health Care Spdr Fd (XLV)

  • XLV we first spoke about in Dec and suggested this look in option Strat: https://optionstrat.com/91xPXQvGW4lO
  • Were just now back-testing the breakout line and should back-test to around $136.10.
  • That’s your next entry long.

Bitcoin USD Pair (XBT/USD)

  • Well the count clearly see’s the ABC now and its saying B is done.
  • Drop the other scale in targets, because that’s a pretty high conviction C.
  • Which just happens to be equality now around $34K.

Weekly count!

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC (GBTC)

  • I see clear divergence between spot and GBTC now.
  • Also not the divergence between the daily targets and the weekly.
  • The weekly is much more bullish.

Weekly count!

Ethereum US Dollar Pair (ETH/USD)

  • Back-test looks about done now. Next stop is that intermediate wave 3 around $2683.83
  • Then we flush back to around $2489.40, so it should be a fairly shallow flat from here.

Bitfarms Ltd (BITF)

  • Bit Farms looks done…I’m being very conservative with that Target 1.
  • Now I’m willing to run a deeper stop because its the low cost producer.

HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE)

Looks like its done too. Mind the STOP so your risking $0.50 max here…or plan to scale.

Riot Platform Inc. (RIOT)

  • Looks done too~ Mind the stop or plan to scale…frankly RIOT move well in options.
  • So, your risking $2 here or plan to scale with that.
  • Just saw these so I’m still digesting this but I like maybe June $13 strikes, July $15, and few Jan $20 and $25 calls.
  • Keep in mind miners leak Spot bitcoin on our last rally.

Like to learn more about Cryptocurrencies? Crash course on Bitcoin and Economy

Risk Disclosures

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2022 Forecast Review & Update

Here is my midyear review available to all subscribers. It covers my thoughts on how accurate our forecast was, the strength of our cash position and what to do with it soon. Holdings included for my aggregate managed accounts.