The coronavirus COVID-19 recession and crash will not be short or shallow. We should expect more economic damage. The stock market is still overvalued and likely to fall further. Use this correction as a chance to position your asset allocation into the “smart everything” and alternative energy world that is developing. It is there that enough growth exists to generate gains. Our research shows that over 100 companies in the S&P 500 are at serious risk of becoming zombies or going bankrupt.
I have been predicting #Crash2020 since summer 2018. How did I know? Recently, I said expect a “limit down” day from the opening bell soon. How did I know? Watch my Investing 2020s webinars on YouTube to find out for free. Tonight’s special webinar is your chance to catch up. Also, a special 50% discount offer for all viewers. If nothing else, sign up for a free library card.
Coronavirus is causing severe human suffering. The equity markets are also suffering. However, valuations were looking for a reason to correct. The stock market can easily drop another 25-35%. Use this correction to move away from “old economy” disrupted investments and move towards “smart everything” and alternative energy world investments.
In our annual forecast we suggested an early year correction driven by a volatility event. On Twitter in early January, I posted that coronavirus was the most important story developing. It is now threatening the stock market and global economy. Here’s a simple way to think about volatility now.
The market is volatile. Risk is pervasive. Using simple technical tools can help you with you with your buys and sells. We are primarily position traders meaning that we seek to hold for quarters and years, not days and weeks. That is at the heart of our methodology.
This piece is available to anybody with a subscription or a FREE Library Card. Find out how we are trading the first half of 2020 and what might develop. Hint, we expect volatility to increase in 2020 and the year to potentially be a lot like 2018 ending in a crash.
I track technical analysts, including Avi Gilburt over at FATrader, Marc Chaikin, a point-and-figure guy here in Milwaukee, several candlestick makers and a few others. When their macro analysis lines up, it gives me pause. Right now, they are all telling a similar story:
The stock market is very likely to go lower from here.
The S&P 500 is hitting up against substantial resistance right now. It has been here before. And before. And before. Right now the technical indicators tell us nothing except in hindsight. Eventually one will be right and whomever was by luck of the draw pointing to that indicator at this moment, they will get to claim to be prescient. Here you can see that the S&P 500 Index 50 day […]