Theresa’s Chat Magazine – NFE, AMTX, And NTR

By Theresa May (Chat Moderator & Analyst)

Each week we publish a summary of a few of the articles, topics and ideas found in the MoSI chat. We encourage you to visit chat to read about updates to our investments, share ideas and ask questions. See you in chat (aka investment group feeds). 

Summary

  • The New Fortress’ (NFE) advantage in a methane world.
  • A short squeeze is coming for Aemetis (AMTX).
  • Who is Nutrien (NTR) ownership ideally suited for?

LNG and methane – the New Fortress (NFE) advantage

wolfemp Nov 1

NFE – There is an emerging argument being made that the processing and handling of LNG releases volumes of methane such that net/net the exporting of US LNG to European countries is more damaging than the burning of coal. This article may be pay-walled, but the headline gives you the gist and is the second major article in the NewYorker on this matter in the last couple of months. This is from seemingly reputable scientists not just climate change resisters. If nothing else, it highlights that climate change investing is not going to be simple – even if we’re right in what we invest in there may be speed bumps. A lot of EV hating all of sudden out there as well as carbon capture derision. With the new house speaker (and his background and nature) and elections coming this is a topic not to be ignored.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/a-smoking-gun-for-bidens-big-climate-decision

Kirk Spano Nov 1

That’s not a negative for NFE, that’s a positive. New Fortress does NOT export LNG processed at a terminal. They’re the competition.

wolfemp Nov 1

The article argues that LNG transported any distance by ship loses enough methane into the atmosphere to be more harm than good compared to local coal mining and consumption. NFE’s LNG is processed in and out of the ship at both ends at a terminal or offshore, so must still be considered in this?

Kirk Spano Nov 1

so, walk through this. If big LNG plants in U.S. are not given permits or are made uneconomic to build by denying export license, then what happens? Well, the competitors to NFE don’t get built in the first place, but, more importantly, NFE’s advantage is being able to load at sea from a deepwater well, way different, and way less damaging than fracked gas. Demand doesn’t change much, but supply is lower without the competition. That’s good for NFE. I talked about new LNG plants getting stopped 2-3 years ago, and in fact mentioned it during Trump admin too, for economic reasons. So, regulatory or not, it’s a tough biz in the first place. Demand is going to be there for 20+ years. NFE is in a good spot for that.

Squeezing shorts – Aemetis (AMTX)

Kirk Spano Nov 1

There’s an 18% short interest in AMTX. There’s literally no way to cover unless me, Hugo & several people we know sell. Hint: that ain’t happening. There’s at least a few multibillion $$$ RIAs dripping in as well and they’ll add more as soon as market is less scary. I know several hedge funds are sniffing around too. The shares to cover already don’t exist. The path of least resistance is up. The naked short squeeze, whenever it happens, will be straight up to $15-25. There is no other way.

Who should own Nutrien (NTR)?

shutko mark Nov 2

Guys would you help me with NTR? Right now it’s 0.5% . Thinking bring to 1%. Not sure if this bounce legit or should I wait to 50$ ?

Kirk Spano Nov 3

NTR is mainly for income seeking retirees. Growth investors can have it in a sleeve of dividend stocks to produce income for buying small caps, but, beyond that, Nutrien is a dividend stock for retirees.

In a falling interest rate environment, NTR would challenge ATHs within 4-5 years.

Most people who sell puts are around even for the year. Jest sayin…and presuming I’m most people.

Articles of interest posted to the chat

U.S. sustainable aviation fuel production target faces cost, margin challenges

‘Significant concentrations’ of natural hydrogen detected at Australia’s first exploration well – raising hopes of world-first commercial exploitation

This Energy Crisis Is Here To Stay

Time Has Come Today – Are We Entering the Age of Certified/Differentiated Natural Gas?

The Secretive Industry Devouring the U.S. Economy

Palantir Ranked No. 1 Vendor in AI, Data Science, and Machine Learning

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